Am I nuts for being such an optimistic futurist?

Question

People laugh at me when I tell them that within 25 years we will find the secret to immortality because of great advances in science and medicine. I know that to a lot of people it sounds crazy. I'm a tech buff and I;m always looking stuff up online. I just think that in the next 25 years or so we will have so many great things. Like cars that drive themselves, affordable space tourism, organs that can be manufactured in a lab and be ready for implant within a couple of hours, nanobots that repair damaged tissues and keep us young forever, the end of extreme poverty and hunger just to name a few. I predict that by 2020 life expectancy will increase by more than a year each year and it's all exponential from then on. Computation power doubles every year and we will reach the singularity soon. Many people laugh because they don't really understand, but all these great advances are coming a lot sooner than most people expect it! When all this is finally in place we will have peace.

Answer 1

From a strictly tech point of view I think that you are probably if anything conservative- lots of things are happening,quickly.
I do think that from a point of view that tech will lead to peace IMHO I think that you are not taking into account the power of humanity to shoot itself in the foot.
Never underestimate the power of human stupidity - Robert Heinlein.

Answer 2

I don't think your nuts, just a little bit on the optimistic side.

I think the earliest humanity will reach clinical immortality (which I agree with you will occur at some point) is 50 years. And that's being insanely optimistic to me, I'd put an early estimate at 100 years.

Interesting comparison with computers, but one of the differences is in method; computer science and engineering is one of the most efficient sciences because you can really put to use the "scientific method." That is, you can easily try 10 000 variations only to get one thing to work; medicine doesn't work like that due to practical limitations as well as ethically imposed ones.

Furthermore, I believe you do have a slight misconception on life expectancy. While life expectancy has increased dramatically thanks to modern medicine, what has not is maximal life span; there have been centenarians since ancient times. The technology required for immortality is rather revolutionary.

It's nice to see an optimist though; I'm sick of listening about global warming and terrorism all the time. Those things are pretty bad, but historically we've had worse. IMHO, progress has been made.

Answer 3

You are most assuredly not "nuts for being an optimistic futurist".

(Although this does not preclude you being "nuts" for some other reason!...jk)

I think that the biological science will indeed allow both the regeneration and extension of life, but I think that when economics are considered, computer technology and specifically Artificial Intelligence will be more revolutionary sooner, bypassing the need for organic shells to house our consciousness.

Transhumanism is indeed approaching sooner than most people realize.

Already, programs exist that allow mental "switching" and I read today that programmers have created a direct mental access allowing a paralyzed individual to use Second Life and manipulate their avatars there.

Before wide spread biological immortality becomes fashionable, millions of "early adopters" will upload their personalities online. At first, it will be like a fully immersive Halo or Second Life experience, but eventually certain people will spend more and more of their time online.

Eventually, the programs will become so sophisticated that millions of minds will effectively merge creating an hyper intelligence which will probably solve all the problems of the world.

I am good either way it happens and agree it is nice to see a fellow optimist.

Answer 4

They should call you naive for predicting a timetable for something which requires invention and hasn't been demonstrated to be possible. It's reasonable to study technology trends and to expect the overall trends to continue. You're way too optimistic for nanotechnology, only in its infancy. Poverty and hunger are not technological problems. Technology will not bring peace.

Keep your optimism. Learn to temper it with knowledge and maturity. Recognize that most such predictions have been wrong.

Answer 5

have you taken into consideration, the powers (governments) that acquire this knowledge FIRST will use it to their benefit, and not for the people,but to control the people?
if you think history is going to change,(the need to comtrol) you'd better go back and read it again.