Study estimates the number of illegal aliens in the US at 20 to 38 million, is this more realistic?

Question

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/mason/5189638.html

In separate rooms on overlapping morning hours at the National Press Club this week, two very different groups were launching the next rounds in the simmering immigration fight.

In the Zenger Room, named for German immigrant John Peter Zenger, who helped establish free speech law, Californians for Population Stabilization released a study claiming there are 20 million to 38 million illegal immigrants in America, not the 12 million the federal government says.

"Immigration is in a state of anarchy," organization member James Walsh, a former Immigration and Naturalization Service lawyer, fervently told the room. "Not chaos, anarchy."

Answer 1

Yes. Bear Sterns came up with 20 million some time back, for use in business growth projections - the people who 'put their money where their mouth is'. The Pew numbers are based on census data which at some level requires someone admitting to the census counter how many people illegally live there.

I think that may be a somewhat low number.

Answer 2

The simple reality is that no one really knows, not Bush, not Chertoff, nor you nor me. Everything you see is at best an estimate, or better stated a guesstimate. DHS systems don't do very well at capturing numbers for analysis under most circumstances, most of the info systems are still quite old.

US-VISIT works well enough on entry, but isn't set up nation-wide to capture exits. So, we depend on the airlines taking the old I-94 cards from exiting passengers and sending them over to CBP, which forwards them on to Nebraska to be data entered. This means an infinite number of clerks are pounding on a infinite number of keyboards data entering info filled in by people who were tired, airsick and don't speak English, often enough. So, the system is replete with data entry errors. Although CBP scans every machine readable passport on entry, that information is not automatically downloaded, it's still entered by hand, based on the I-94 card, not the passport. The DHS entry-exit program doesn't sound an alarm every time someone appears to overstay a visa, so there's no way to run a check to see how many overstays there are in total, or by nationality, that I'm aware of.

And since illegal entries don't register at all, what then becomes the basis for tallying them? The numbers reported are all suspect and tend to be figures that support the agenda of one group or another. Someone in the USG thought 12 mil sounded grim enough but not frightening, so they throw that out all the time and it's dutifully reported in the press, as if it meant something. Is 20 mil more accurate? Quite possibly but 38? well, maybe. it could be more accurate than 12, but unless Congress enacts immigration reform and illegals start coming in on their own to register, we'll probably never know. And that won't count the illegals who come in after whatever qualifying date is set up for the amnesty or whatever we choose to call it.

Whatever the number is, Mr. Walsh's comments are pretty much on target.

Answer 3

It has to be. Mexico said they had 20 million missing as of their last census - which has been a few years.

I think it was CIS who calculated the numbers based on how many the border patrol catches and came close to the 40 million number. Hopefully with the workplace raids these numbers are diminishing.

Answer 4

Unfortunately, we have no real way of determining the true number of illegals here in the US! Any number is too many!!
It just shows that our governent either 1) doesn't have a clue, 2) doesn't care or 3) both!!

Answer 5

Yes I believe these numbers. I live way up north and floods of Spanish speaking illegal immigrants have been arriving.

Answer 6

Good posting but I have to laugh not at you but at how we are so smart to know (or estimate) the number of ilegals and actually DO nothing! If we know how many...doesn't the government know where they are?

And for rm0475...speaking another language (or listening to someone do it) doesn;t have anything to do with ilegal immigration...that is prejudice.
My grandparents spoke german even living in the US most of their lives because they wanted to preserve their language, speaking it is a way to not forget. So when I hear someone speaking Chinese, Spanish, Indian, German, Russian, whatever the case mey be I don't assume automatically that they are ILEGALS.

Answer 7

Those numbers seem pretty accurate. I only hope the time is coming soon that we the people fight back and take back our country but forcing them out 1 way or another.

This is a hostile takeover.

Answer 8

Last I heard it was at 20 million. I personally believe it is more. Just think... is there any area you can go to and not run into people speaking another language?

Answer 9

The actual number is "too" as in too many. It only goes to show how out of control this invasion is.

.

Answer 10

Yes it is. The city that I live in, is at 87%. And growing.