This question must come up all the time but does anyone really know when the gasoline will run out?

Question

My friend who drives his big old Lincoln say that gasoline will be around for another 200-300 years and that environmentalists are just spreading lies, now i think there is maybe 50-75 years worth but when i tell him that in 50-75 years we will be back to the horse and buggy days he laughs at me, so who is more right him or me?

Answer 1

Last best guess I saw was there is 200-300 years oil available at current usage rate.
However as technology advances over the next 50 years, "gasoline" will be slowly replaced by other fuel sources.
good luck

Answer 2

Well the horse and buggy days may come about but only if something extremely drastic happens. I watched something on discovery and the gas shortage is not to far away. Maybe 20-30 years. So the government is aware but our society is last minute. We think we can fix the problem when it becomes a big problem.. They won't step up and start fixing it now. Plus there are no alternative fuels at the moment that are as affordable as oil/gas/ so therefor we are stuck with oil till it runs out or if someone else can come up with a better solution.

Answer 3

Demand and supply is a moving target, because people adjust their usage to supply, for example, by introducing more efficient machines or shifting to other forms of transport. In the United States we could easily get along with far less oil usage with little sacrifice to our comfort, and perhaps we would be healthier and happier as well.

The real end point will be the point at which it will take more energy to get petroleum out of the ground than the petroleum will yield. Early in the 20th century it required one barrel of oil to get a hundred barrels out of the ground, now one barrel obtains something like eight barrels. Thus long before oil runs out it will no longer be viable as an energy source.

As already mentioned here, what we should be looking at is when oil production will start to go into decline. The geophysist M. King Hubbert used the curve obtained from the data for the discoveries of oil, which has always preceded the one for production, to predict in 1956 that oil production in the United States would peak in 1971, which it did, and that globally it would peak between 2005-2012, which it seems to be doing, if it has not done so already. Since this is a bell curve, production will seem to hold steady for a few years, making it difficult to identify when decline begins, then enter into a precipitous decline and by as early as 2030 probably be at the same level as in the 1930s. The Olduvai Theory calls this point the end of the industrial age.

The question then is whether we humans are going to prepare for this and have a soft landing, so to speak, or are we going to act as if things will stay the same and have a hard one with tremendous social disruption and population die-off, as characterizes all other biological populations that suddenly run out of a key energy surplus that had previously allowed for a mushrooming of their population.

Answer 4

In 50-75 years, we won't be horse-n-buggy, but gasoline will be so costly and scarce as to make other fuels attractive, even if a vehicle will only go 50 mph tops. Electric and hydrogen cars look pretty good.

Answer 5

The only way back to the horse and buggy is an event that wipes away all the technology. There are many other fuel sources that can replace oil that is kept hidden because people have to PAY for oil. Oil is an energy source that probably generaates the most money for those in the business of selling energy.

Actually, our government(US) actually gives incentives to companys selling gas-guzzlers. Check a Hummer commercial and you'll see 0% financing and cash back because they want the oil used as quickly as possible to make more money. I'm thinking they(government) know they can't sit on the technology that will rid us of depending on oil, forever. So they give auto makers incentives to make gas-guzzling vehicles.

Its all economics. But don't worry. When oil runs out, they'll have something else take its place rather quickly. That being electric, solar, wind, gravity, steam etc.

Answer 6

the problem is not when the oil runs out, but when demand exceeds suppy
- aka peak oil or Hubberts peak http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

When that happens the price will rocket, and only the wealthiest will afford it

easy to extract oil has mostly been used, remaining reserves are in politically unstable/environmentally sensitive areas.
demand is increasing exponetilally as China, India & the rest of the world aspire to US consumption levels

This peak is in the next 5-10 years.

Returning to the horse & buggy for a human population of 6-9bn is not possible due to the area required to grow fodder without agro-chemicals and farm machinery, and the loss of farmland due to climate change. http://www.amazon.com/Last-Hours-Ancient-Sunlight-Revised/dp/1400051576/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/104-1462101-2303133?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1190203139&sr=1-1

Answer 7

Economically, gasoline will never run out. It will just get steadily rarer and therefore more expensive, until nobody can afford to buy the little bit that's left.

Answer 8

What makes you think that we are going to run out of oil??? Even if we would, someone would find something else to use in its place. So just don't worry about running out!!

Answer 9

i think your friend is more right ....i believe the environmentalist are worried about the pollution more than anything, my opinion is that the oil companys are behind the fuel shortage rumor because if your scared your willing to pay more...just my opinion