Is global warming accelerating (snowballing- to employ an oxymoron) more rapidly than we are being told?

Question

My latest blog says change is unchanging. It becomes a matter of degrees. So will global warming be ignorable or unbearable much more rapidly than the experts say?

Which of the following three scenarios are likely?

Response Option:
Since global warming is a myth, no it will not accelerate.

Reponse Option:
Maybe. But GW is not going to accelerate enough for me to worry about in my life time.

Reponse Option:
Things have a way of turning out different from what experts think. I think global warming will rapidly pick up speed. Maybe fifty years from now, Earth will look like Mars.

Answer 1

This sort of stuff is my sphere of work so I tend to get to know what's actaully happening rather than what the media is reporting and what the public are being told after the politicians have edited the scientific reports.

Climatology is a relatively young science and we're learning a lot as we go along, the technology is coming along in leaps and bounds so we can make ever more accurate predictions.

GW is accelerating slightly faster than the public may otherwise believe but still within the range predicted by scientists. For example, the actual rise in average global temps is 0.0177°C per year as opposed to the published figure of 0.0156°C.

Some things are changing faster than expected. For example, it had been though that the Arctic ice would be permenant feature of the planet for the next 100 years, more recent evalauations show it's likely to disappear completely each summer in about 40 years, if the rate of melting observed in the last year is repeated then it will be gone in less than 25 years (2007 is the hottest year on record so far and as such it's likely that this years Arctic ice retreat was greater than the future norm).

In a couple of months the IPCC will release a further report, it will state that the world is warming that bit faster than previously though.

Answer 2

Very few now say global warming is a myth, There are considerable disagreements over its causes, the speed at which it will occur and the results.

The prediction part is the hardest since historic warming and cooling were so long ago that we don't have a lot of clues to how it will play out. There is also much doubt as to when people will be concerned enough to spend a lot of money and suffer inconveniences to prevent damage generations away.

I think we (people of the world)are not going to do much until some significant event occurs to scare us all to death. I also believe the developed, wealthy countries will be the ones to lead the way since people who are worrying about their next meal or a roof over their head do not worry about 30-50 years down the road.

I have heard of some significant events that may occur. We all think of rising sea levels first. Massive flooding of a lowlying area would not take much(Storms like katrina don't work because they are too close to "normal"). I have heard of methane gas deposits in the north atlantic that if the water warms would escape form the sea bed and cause a big jump in C02. That could cause an even faster rise in global warming than is now occuring. There is also concern about the global circulation of water that moves water from topical to artic zones that would be quite quite sudden, resulting in substantial weather changes, and a change if the salt concentrations in different parts of the ocean.

Again these are all possibilities. We can guess, and as time goes on we may see trends more clearly. But we realy will not be believed by many until it occurs.

Answer 3

The big uncertainty---and it is a big uncertainty---in the future of climate change is the feedback of greenhouse gasses. How much do the various greenhouse gasses increase or decrease as it gets warmer. There is clear evidence of positive feedback in the fossil record from the warmings after ice ages---warmer temperatures result in more CO2. The extent to which this will happen is not well understood. Since the current warming is much more rapid than past natural warmings, we are in a situation without historical parallel.

The worst case, however, is nothing like Mars. If the entire infrared spectrum of the Earth's atmosphere were blanketed by greenhouse gas spectral lines, the temperature might rise 30 C. This seems unlikely, but not absolutely impossible.

Answer 4

Just look at what expert said about the Northeastern Passage:

"It might maybe one day open in the future as a result of global warming...". It is instead taking place already now !!!

The same prediction is valid for melting glaciers and the desertification in Northeastern China.

Most predictions once judged as "alarmist" are becoming reality.

Answer 5

Throughout the 500 million years of geologic history that we have been able to estimate earths temperature, it has been on average about 12˚ C warmer than today, and the geologic evidence does not indicate that it ever looked like Mars. Some of the greatest chapters of life on earth were written when the world was much warmer, the remains of that life that was once so vibrant, is what you are filling up your car with.

We are currently living in the interglacial period of an ice age.

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Answer 6

I think global warming will rapidly pick up speed

Answer 7

what a crock some experts say it's global warming and some say it is the beginning of an ice age personally i don't care because i can't control the weather if i could it would be 70-75 degrees Fahrenheit all year long except for deer season it would be 35-40 degrees Fahrenheit

Answer 8

The retort to Dana's answer may well be that each and every of the fast warming spells in between those years have been rather interrupted with short cooling spells. temporarily, his answer is that "whilst it rather isn't any longer cooling, it rather is warming." properly whilst it rather isn't any longer warming, it rather is cooling. Or no longer changing. ideal - all of us understand that.

Answer 9

Well, it's accelerating more rapidly than they thought just a little while ago:

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=28591A94-E7F2-99DF-31EE65D88983AE31&chanID=sa007

and:

"the Arctic Ocean will be completely ice-free in summer by 2030. If you had asked me a few years ago, I would have said it wouldn't happen until 2070 or 2100"

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2003873003_arcticice07m.html

Answer 10

yes the fact that its snowed in april in virginia is probably a sign, and it snowed in a part of bolivia ( a country in south america) that its never snowed in before in 20 years. were hopefully not pushing the day after tomorrow