Global Warming Alarmists are good at Algebra, but why not Calculus?

Question

Based on Trevor's answer in this question:
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070919151143AA7qreB
it is clear that Global Warming Alarmists have a solid grasp of simple THEORETICAL algebra. But have these people ever taken a CALCULUS CLASS??????????

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the surface area of the ocean will increase DRAMATICALLY as the sea level rises. I mean, it's not like we can build a wall to hold that water back. For every inch the sea rises, there may be areas where the sea moves inland several FEET. That could add millions of square miles to the surface of the ocean.

This simple observation completely blows away the calculation that the alarmists use to prove that the oceans can rise as much as 250 feet if all the ice melts. Anyone that has passed Calculus should be laughing out loud at these claims.

Well what do you think about this?

EnragedParrot, I think it is YOU that has missed the point. I know what your point is - that millions of square miles of densely populated real estate will be gone, among the thousands of other bad things that Global Warming will eventually lead to. But MY point is that every time these idiot alarmists make FALSE claims that can be easily debunked by a layman like me, they lose an immeasuable amount of credibility. It turns the fence-sitters into skeptics and it fuels propaganda for the skeptics. Until you alarmists wake up and realize this, you will never get the public to wake up.

BTW I am a converted believer myself. I used to be a skeptic until I sifted through all of the lies and inaccuracies that BOTH sides have been dumping into the propaganda pool.

Answer 1

I'm impressed that everyone knows so much math. Would that it were a math problem, eh? If you look at the fossil record of the many times the ice cap has melted before, the answer has been 60 feet, give or take ten feet. I haven't seen that number come out of anyone's calculations, but it's as valid as any.

Answer 2

The surface of the earth is ~75% water. That means that if the oceans were to completely cover all the land the maximum increase in the surface area of the oceans would be 33%. So instead of rising 250 feet it would rise 188 feet (it would actually be more, but this is the best case). While not as bad that doesn't make me feel a while lot better.

Answer 3

If it all the ice melted, the sea would rise more or less that amount.

http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2000/HannaBerenblit.shtml

Also, the temperature increase causes thermal expansion which contributes substatially to the rise in the ocean levels.

However, this is not the main argument or threat described by most experts in this field. The argument is that we will have a climate change and ocean currents and climates will change unpredictably. This means we will have crop failures worldwide and famine. A study on "global dimming" indicates that the "global warming" has been seriously underestimated.

Be aware that some of the 5 mass extinctions over the past 650 million years have been attributed to global warming. The atmosphere can change to a sulphurous poison, if the global temperatures rise too much. It's happened before and it's likely to happen again (with or without mankind's help).

I suggest that you do your algebra again. The icecaps are massive and this time, make sure to account for thermal expansion.

Answer 4

People like smart guy are who make the whole GW alarmism laughable. Half of the arctic ice has melted in the last 10 years?!? Riiiiiight. Even the hardcore GW alarmists don't make that claim.

Of course there are stories claiming that the arctic ice coverage is the lowest in history. Considering satellites have been measuring the coverage since only 1978, I guess history is a relatively short period of time.

And if half of the arctic ice has melted in the last 10 years, shouldn't we be seeing a large rise in sea levels?

Answer 5

So the surface area of the oceans increases. I'm not understanding why that's ridiculous. Even if sea level increased 250 feet, all the land higher than 250 feet in elevation would remain. Of course we'd have lost a few trillion dollars worth of real estate and stuff.

These calculations are not from "alarmists". They're from the US Geological Survey and the National Science Foundation.

http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=109759
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/resources/askjack/2004-11-21-melting-polar-ice_x.htm

Are you saying they're fools? Why?

Answer 6

I think some people never learned trig.

Let's assume an average coastal slope of just 0.5 degrees -- that's just a 1 foot rise for every 114 feet inland, which is bending over backwards to be fair.

Total length of world's coastlines: 845748 km
http://www.surialink.com/GIS/stats_summ.asp

Assumed rise in ocean: 80 m
Landward extent of rise: 80 / tan(0.5) = 9167 m
Extra volume per km of coastline:
.5 * 80 * 9167 * 1000 = 3.67 x 10^8 m^3 = 0.367 km^3

Total extra volume worldwide: 0.367 * 845748 = 310122 km^3

Total volume of ice in world's icecaps and glaciers: 32,328,300 km^3

Difference when using overflooded land: 31022 / 32328300 = < 1%

Trevor's sea rise number: 80.32 meters = 264 feet
Sea rise using overflooded land:
80.32 * 99.04% = 79.55 meters = 261 feet.

Now who's the boldfaced liar?

Answer 7

I think you're trying really hard to salvage whatever slim bit of credibility you have remaining after that last question you asked, unfortunately it backfired because you tried to mock a very intelligent person, but you're the one who's incorrect.

Consider the current massive surface area of the ocean.

Consider how negligible it would be to add the surface area of land which is a few feet above the current sea level.

I've taken a few calculus classes in my time. So have climate scientists. Your condescending attitude is completely unjustified.

Answer 8

just "spin the wheel" and get the new sea level.

we could probably contruct a similiar wheel to determine future temp. rises too!

better yet, why not call the "physic hot line" and get their weather predictions for the future.

i'd trust them over the "experts", who have had a track record of getting it wrong for 40 years.

Answer 9

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Answer 10

Think about this, we lost half the ice in the Arctic in the last 10 years.when the rest of it goes the ocean should only rise what it`s gained in last 10 years.Plus the arctic still will freeze in the winter still and melt every Summer.new ice melts quicker it`s salty