Daniel Negreanu question?

Question

Would you put all of your tournament chips at stake with the 10 8 like Daniel Negreanu did in the WSOP Main Event? Top pair crap kicker with runner runner straight draw? I can see him making the move all in, but calling off all of his chips like that? I cant say I havent made a stupid call like this before - but not in a big tournament with all of my chips at stake. And if he did think he had a read on this guy - was it still a good call? I think I remember him saying - "you probably got me" ? Does Daniel Negreanu still have these awesome powers to read his opponents like everyone says he does? Im sure he can read better than I can, but I am starting to think that its a myth that these poker players have these great abilities to read the players that they play against. These players know that there are reads out there - they use them themselves - I use them also, but I dont play against Professional Poker Players on a regular basis. I think the reads come mainly from bets. U?

Answer 1

Reads come often from bet amounts, but there is also a certain amount of body language. Someone like Daniel Negreanu also likes to talk incessantly at the table. If anyone is stupid enough to answer him when in a hand with him, they might just as well flip their cards over.

When Daniel is in best form he can call people's hands like crazy, or at least get close. And not just the obvious ones like aces and kings.

But poker is not an exact science. There is always an element of guess work involved. And even the best players in the world can go on tilt, or in a moment of stupidity put their tournament on the line.

Unlike normal players Daniel will play with almost any two cards from any position. He will often get away from bad hands, and play hands when he senses weakness. But playing like this puts an enormous pressure on himself to get things right. A couple of wrong reads can decimate his stack. By playing so many hands he puts himself in a position to have to make a lot of difficult decisions.

So yes Negreanu does have amazing reading powers. He has amazing poker instincts. When he is playing his A game he is among the best in the world. He has made millions of dollars from the game and is a profitable player. Just because we some times see him get knocked out in a tournament in what might seem to us like a weird lapse of judgment does not negate his significant poker accomplishments.

According to Wikipedia:

As of January 2007, his total live tournament winnings exceed $9,650,000, behind only Jamie Gold and Joseph Hachem. He is the 2nd all-time leading money winner on the WPT circuit, recently passed by Carlos Mortensen in April 2007 at the WPT Championship. With a 2nd place finish at the World Poker Open in Tunica, Mississippi, Negreanu has now cashed in a record 4 consecutive WPT events (which has since been tied by Kirk Morrison), and ties John Juanda in total WPT cashes with 14. He has the highest tournament earnings of any individual who has not won a WSOP Main Event.

Answer 2

well, part of the problem here is that television skews the view of professional poker players, in particular daniel because he makes good television and especially so when he calls people's cards...even top pros are not superhuman, they are wrong sometimes, and again the view that televised tournaments give us is especially skewed in the particular case of daniel because he calls people's cards a lot, and they show only the hands where he is right, and the same can be said for others who do such things like phil hellmuth

as for the particular hand, if i remember correctly daniel raised before the flop and was called by an opponent with 8-8, and after the flop fell 8-7-6 daniel bet out and was raised all-in...now, his opponent could potentially just have a straight draw or a pair and a straight draw, maybe two pair or a slowplayed overpair, or worst case scenario a set or straight...now, against a draw or pair/draw, he has the best hand, against two pair or slowplayed overpair he likely has 9 outs getting 2-1 on his money, which makes a call correct against that hand...so basically, his opponent has to have a set or straight in order to make a call incorrect

overall, it's not really a bad call, but the way daniel talked it definitely sounded like he knew he should have thrown it away...and also, reads almost always come from betting patterns, people overblow the idea of physical tells and staring into people's souls and such things, not to say physical tells aren't useful or important, but they are clearly overrated

Answer 3

Daniel can read people better than anyone since Stu Ungar, save perhaps, Doyle.

Nevertheless, simply putting someone on a hand correctly isn't always reason enough to justify a call. If for example he knew he had his opponent beat, but was in a position where he was risking his tournament life with a 51/49-type hand, calling would be mathematically correct, however it'd definitely be safer to fold and wait for a better opportunity to go all-in.

I didn't watch any of the WSOP, so don't know the circumstances, but Daniel's no fool. Surely there was a reason for his play. (Often he'll call even when he knows he's beat, planning on outplaying his opponent later in the hand or game, but that probably wasn't the case here.)

Nevertheless, it's scenarios like it sounds like you're describing that prevent me from completely embracing his "smallball" approach to the game. It's just too easy to catch something, but lose to a better kicker or get run down by a rock with overcards.

Smallball requires exceptional reading accuracy and the reward often doesn't justify the repeated, albeit relatively small, risks. Personally I prefer to save my chips and get them in when I have my opponent trapped and/ or dominated. And when it comes to stealing, rather than betting 2/3 of the pot, I often prefer something more like 1/3 of the pot. It's half the risk, with about 2/3 of the reward. (Of course I play far different limits, however.)

Answer 4

Daniel does have great reading ability, he's one of the best at it in the game. Daniel's problem (and he's acknowledged this) is that he'll frequently call bets when he knows what the other guy has and knows he's beat, he just can't help wanting to see the hand. Watch him in his first day at the WSOP Main Event this year. His reading was uncanny. He just can't help making calls.
I'm going to guess (not knowing the specific game you're speaking of) that he was short stacked and nearly out when he made that 10 8 call. Daniel LOVES low connectors and one-gaps.
UPDATE
For once I think I have to disagree with ZCT, or at least with wikipedia. I think TJ Cloutier is still the all-time money winner in tournaments who has never one the WSOP main event.

Answer 5

It all depends on his chip count and the blinds. It could be that the blinds would be coming to him soon and that would eat a big chunk of his stack. So depending on those circumstances it might have been the best bet.

I made an all in call with Q3 suited once because the because the blinds coming up would have taken my whole stack in the next 3 hands and this was the best hand I saw in an hour. I felt my opponent was weak and making a play-so I called and lost with no regrets.

Reads to come mainly from bets and possibly some mannerisms and Dan N is one of the best.

Answer 6

Daniel getting invited to the Masters to play next year is about a one in a million shot. There are only a few ways to get into the field ( top 50 ranked golfers, past winners, amateur champion and runner up etc.) and Daniel has no shot at any of them.