First thing first, Brian is an unbelievable player, his NLH and PL Omaha games are amazing! (When you think about it, he was playing the NLH $0.25/0.50 less then 2 years ago! Are you kidding me! )
At that level, and knowing Brian, there is no doubt in my mind he would had call me with a big range of hand. For what I know he can hold 89,TJ, and the obvious A8, K8, KJ (or worst 88's, JJ's quads). That's definitely a big possibility. Sbrugby is a really aggressive player, he put constant pressure an you. Knowing that he check twice, that's not a good news for me. I definitely check my AA's on the turn, and waiting for a big value bet from Brian on the river. Putting pressure an me, and me facing a big decision. Or I'm beat or he has an under pair like 66's 77's,, 99's, TT's and he would have down the same thing. A bluff is a good possibility also (holding hands like KQd, QTd for example) Depending an the size of his bet an the river (and yes 99.99% sure he is going to bet) and also because it's a cash game, I might still stongly thinking about calling.
(nice first quiz man :) )
Take care
2007-09-09 05:54:55
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answer #1
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answered by pokercoach 5
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I think it's best to bet out here, rather than check and call on turn. The bet of $4,987 was a really good bet for AA. He could easily believe you have a hand with something like AK, AQ, 1010, or 99. Then the pair on the flop makes him think that you think you can take it down with a good size bet, because he knows you know he'd have to have an 8 or a J to make a mechanically sound call. So by this he believes you have a weak hand, therefore I wouldn't believe it would be likely he has an 8 or a J. He could really have anything. 109, Q10, 2s - 7s, he's not even likely to have AJ because you have two aces. He could easily have QQ or KK. Reasons he doesn't put you on an 8 or a J: 1. He thinks he knows you have nothing from what I've previously stated. 2. The pair on the flop. 3. The awkward preflop raise. 4. The double reverse psychology of betting 8,800 when 8 8 is on flop making him think that you think you can make him think you have a J. Then he WOULD know that you were trying to get him NOT to think this (because it would be obvious at this level), Since he knows you're trying to make him think you're trying to get him not to think you have a J, he will not put you on a J. These are all reasons he will raise all-in when you check. Therefore you have to either give up and check, or you can make him likely fold with a bet of 15,123.
2007-09-10 08:16:39
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answer #2
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answered by jackhighbluff 3
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First thing I take into account is that Sbrugby raised the table first indicating strength. Knowing that Sbrugby could be holding a face card and anything else with his aggression is a possibility.
My next concern is that I came over the top of him before the flop and he calls. I don't put him on an ace, but I do put him on a pair maybe 9 9 or 10 10. After the flop, he check calls me after I made a significant bet. Would he just check call me if he had something? Wouldn't he come over the top of me at this point? This doesn't seem right. I now think he has a J J
Another J comes up and he checks again. Most aggressive players will bet on fourth street in this situation if they have nothing because now you are representing a full house or trip J. When Sbrugby checks, that makes me thinks he has something real and is letting me lead the betting to get more of my chips. Maybe he has the 8 and a face card that isn't a J.
I'm checking this hand down content with the pot that is already there. If Sbrugby bets on the river, I'm folding.
2007-09-09 08:14:28
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answer #3
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answered by Skrap 3
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Weird, this is the exact same thing that happened to me in the last live tournament I played in. Exactly the same hole cards, flop and turn. Unfortunately I had just moved to seat 4 on a new table and the opponent was in seat six, so I couldn't really see him. He had a massive chip lead, and I had not been there long enough to get a read on him. On the turn he moved all in. I ended up laying it down, because I felt that I still had a big enough stack to do well in the tournament later.
The big stack showed me Q 10 for a semi bluff.
In hindsight I should have called all in. It was a chance to double up and he probably wouldn't have moved all in if he had just made a boat.
But in this example, its a tough one. He could easily have AJ, JJ, or 88. So you could easily be beaten here. Since he checks again, I might just check behind and see what he does next. You have position here. But you have many ways to be beaten, including the flush draw.
Love the question, I think this is a real tough hand, and our hero needs not to fall in love with pocket rockets. They look so pretty, but there is a lot going on in this hand. Hence my suggestion for caution. The size of his river bet (and I'm pretty sure he will bet) would decide if I call or not.
Betting here on the turn is probably a mistake. The minimum bet to make any real sense is several thousand dollars, and what are you going to do if he re-raises? I'll take that free card, maybe it will be an ace, and if he has a good hand other than quads you'd be in a good position to bust him.
2007-09-09 07:19:19
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answer #4
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answered by ZCT 7
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My first thought is to say check. In a way Brian is letting us off easy by not betting. The more you think about it though, the more it seems he would've bet the turn after checking and calling. It seems like he's hoping to improve and didn't. It's a great set-up for a check raise, though. Damn this is tough. Okay, fine...check along and see what he does on the river. I'd really like to take a shot at it at this point but it would cost a bundle for an effective bet, at least 10K or so. I'm also showing weakness by checking and he could easily take a shot with anything on the river (which he probably will do.) Nope. Changing my mind. He's gonna bet a lot more than 10K on the river if he has anything so make the "cheap" 10K bet now and hope he gives it up. Better than trying to decide whether or not to call a pot sized or all in bet on the river. If he goes over the 10K, I'm giving it up and walking off a tilt. Maybe take a break for a round, a nice drink .... Dammit Dun, this one's gonna keep me up for awhile tonight...
(and thanks for the nice comment about my answers, too.)
UPDATE
But now you're almost guaranteeing an all in bet on the river if he calls the turn. Your only prayer after the turn check, 10K bet and call is that he checks again on the river, which would be just plain bad poker. The silver lining being that if he does check again you KNOW you've got him. Dammit--make brain stop--fine, I'm sticking by the 10K bet answer, and now I'm giving up poker forever and switching to playing Hearts.
2007-09-09 07:49:38
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answer #5
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answered by Anonymous
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1.Nothing wrong with your play in late pos. Stealing blinds early and showing a "fake" table image of a loose player early will help later. Plus most players are tight at this level so you can use that to build a nice stack and play tight as the tournament moves along, later you can raise with a monster and then you might have a player who thinks you are weak because of your previous play. 2. You have to bet the flop because of the flush draw, I would bet $170 to make sure any flush draws are not priced to stay. If they are tight you should win the pot right there. 3. Turn if the Villain checks I will just check behind him, no need to make the pot any larger with an average hand. If a H comes on the flop and the Villain makes a bet I might call depending on the size.
2016-04-03 22:42:55
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answer #6
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answered by Anonymous
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I would bet about 13,000-14,000. This bet would push out a good player on a straight or flush draw and eliminate this. If your opponent calls, I would not bet on the river. If the river comes a heart, or 7,8,9,10 i would fold, there are not many good hands you could beat in that situation. I would call a marginally small bet on the river for information.
2007-09-09 10:18:55
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answer #7
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answered by Sally 2
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all in is the same as a check. a bet won't scare this donkey and a donkey like you is pot committed.. you are an overall loser and you have never folded a pair of queens, kings or aces in your life. you will take every-body's advice and continue to lose until you get some balls and press an advantage. you are cordially invited to my weekly Friday night game. the regular players drop a c-note in the pot and the person who takes your money wins the pot.
2007-09-10 03:15:29
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answer #8
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answered by Anonymous
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I would make a small bet to see if he'd raise then I know I'm beat. If he just calls and checks on river I don't think I could bet again I'd want to see what he's got.
2007-09-09 07:33:15
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answer #9
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answered by AK♥ 2
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fold. he has to have an 8 or a jack. throw them in.
2007-09-09 07:28:36
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answer #10
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answered by noa mikal collins 1
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