Does this video sum up the denier movement?

Question

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5r6TqpOQGc

Answer 1

There is roughly a 53% chance that it will be warmer 5 years from now at any particular place on the Earth's surface, and a 47% chance it will be cooler. For times longer than 5 years, those odds favor warming more and more. This trend may continue for hundreds of years.

The variable in question is the temperature at any point on the Earth's surface. There is an overall trend of about 0.03 C per year increase at all these points. Therefore, we expect a increase in average temperatures of 0.15 C in 5 years. There is, however, a stochastic component to temperature----at any one place and time of year, there is an approximately gaussian distribution of temperatures (due to weather and various natural forcings) with an RMS of about 2 C (this varies from place to place, and some places have bi-modal distributions of temperature, violating our assumption, but this is an approximation).

So, letting

s = 2 C, the rms variation in temperature due to weather,

and

x = 0.15 C, the increase in the mean in 5 years,

the odds of it being warmer are

(s sqrt(2pi))^-1 int from{-infinity} to {x} exp(t^2/2 s^2) dt =

= 0.5*(1+erf(x/(s sqrt(2)))) ~

~ 0.5 (1 + x/(s sqrt(2)) ) for x/s < about 0.3

= 0.53

(Sorry, I made an error earlier, now corrected.)

Note that this number increases linearly in time---in 10 years, the odds of it being warmer rise to 56%, in 20 years, they rise to 62%. Since the odds can never be 100%, the curve flattens several decades out (the approximation erf(x)~x fails).

Answer 2

Don't be absurd. That's just a joke.

This article does a much better job:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20122975/site/newsweek/

Mr Jello - There are skeptics, and there are deniers. Richard Lindzen is a skeptic, Senator Inhofe is a denier. The two groups are easy to tell apart. One actually considers the body of scientific evidence and engages in thoughtful debate, the other simply rants on, oblivious to the science.

The majority of people know global warming is real and mostly caused by us (Source given). There are a minority of deniers, many for economic/political reasons. And just a few skeptics. Most skeptical people who actually study the science soon lose their skepticism about this issue.

"I wasn’t convinced by a person or any interest group—it was the data that got me. I was utterly convinced of this connection between the burning of fossil fuels and climate change. And I was convinced that if we didn’t do something about this, we would be in deep trouble.”

Vice Admiral Richard H. Truly, USN (Ret.)
Former NASA Administrator, Shuttle Astronaut and the first Commander of the Naval Space Command

Answer 3

Denier has connotations of "Holocaust denier." It is an offensive term and it is sums up the arrogance and ignorance of those who use it. Some people are too ignorant to know what they know and what they don't know. Some people just want to belong to a group and pretend that they are doing something useful or that they care more than others, especially the deniers.

Answer 4

I can't think of anything dumber than using the word "denier".

That implies that a person knows with certainty that there isn't any global warming. That's no better than those who do believe with absolute certainty that man made global warming is real.

The position of those that don't fall for the religion of the consensus is that the climate is very complex and you can't yet determine the cause of any warming. You still can't say if it will be warmer or cooler 5 years from now. You can only take guesses, or flip a coin.

And that ain't science......

Cosmo - "we expect a increase in average temperatures of 0.15 C in 5 years" - Where did you get those numbers? Did you make them up? How can you predict the future? Show all work----

Answer 5

Here's another funny George Bush video - http://www.dailymotion.com/related/224495/video/xijb9_bush-and-global-warming/1 and here's the real Bush Administration approach to global warming - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKJ2fu_Gluo&mode=related&search=