Hurrican Season - is this the worst yet ? is it normal cycle or GW influenced - evidence please.?

Question

This is the first time two Atlantic hurricanes have ever made landfall at Category 5 strength in the same season - ever.
There have only been 3 previous seasons with two category 5s guess what 2003 was one of them

The season is s'posed to start 1june - Subtropical Storm Andrea formed on May 9, staring the season 3 weeks early.

The season is s'posed to end 30Nov - can I have guestimate bets for storms in Dec and Jan - give me a probability and quantity?

Just to let you know
Tropical Storm Zeta from the 2005 season, continued through early January, only the second time on record that had happened. Zeta was the longest-lived January tropical cyclone in Atlantic basin history.
and in the 2003 season -Tropical Storm Ana was the first Atlantic tropical storm on record to form in April. and Tropical Storms Odette and Peter, made 2003 the first recorded time two Atlantic tropical storms formed in December.

Ohh - sorry my bad - 'ever' since records began.

Also - I'm not being alarmist - I'm asking is it or isn't it.

It is also interesting that whenver GW questions are asked the naysayers are always the first and the loadest to say it ain't so - usually (but not this time i'll grant you) citing the notorious channel 4 he Great GW swindle programme. - The one under investigation by the official watchdog. The same company that has never apologised for makung a programme which said HIV did not cause AIDS and it was all a medical con of drug companies anyway.

I agree that a spike in 1 year and year to year fluctuation mean little - I was asking you all to look perhaps at the 10year trend and tell me your thoughts.

I'm slapping a £100 bet on a hurrican forming in Dec - I'll get just £110 back - but only a £10 bet on one lasting or forming in Jan 2008. - I'll get £310 back.

Answer 1

GW is real, but its effect on hurricanes is complex. The best current hypothesis is that GW does not affect the number of hurricanes, but may increase their intensity.

One or a few hurricane seasons are not really enough data to make a serious statistical inference.

Answer 2

To get a true quantitative comparison to other hurricane seasons, you need to look at the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy). The Saffir-Simpson scale is great for a media that thrives on peaks and the spectacular, but it doesn't really tell the tale. Felix, for example. hit Cat 5 but fizzled quickly down to a Cat 1.

The ACE so far is about 52 less than half of what 2005 was at this time of the year, and about one fifth of the total for all of 2005.

Comparing what we can measure in today's cyclonic activity to what we could do 15 or more years ago is pretty ridiculous. The technology has so far advanced that it's like comparing movie CGI capabilities of today to what we could do 15 years or more ago. Category 5 Felix today may have measured a 2 or 3 if we had only 70s era technology - it may have even been just a Cat 1.

Answer 3

Hilarious, just freakin' hilarious. So, let me get this straight. In 2005, Katrina and Rita hit causing mass destruction including a city whose main problem was that local and state government had been spending federal funds on things other than the levees it was intended for. Since global warming is the cause of all bad weather and 2005 had a completely average hurricane season (which was higher than the below-average seasons we had been experiencing), global warming must cause more hurricanes. In 2006, Algore and the GW fear mongers predicted 2006 would be horrendous year for hurricanes. 2006 was a hurricane dud. And that is the problem with predictions - when you are wrong, you look stupid. Of course, the pro-global warming media has conveniently given the alarmists a free pass on 2006. Then the alarmists said that since 2006 had so few hurricanes and since global warming is destroying the planet, global warming must suppress hurricane formation obviously. (BTW, that would be considered a good thing if true). Fast forward to 2007, we have now had 2 cat 5 hurricanes hit for the first time in recorded history which isn't very long considering the American and Mexican Indians probably didn't have powwows to put together perfect hurricane records. Since global warming is obviously affecting our weather and we have had 2 cat 5 hurricanes in a short span, then obviously global warming causes more severe hurricanes. Huh?

You alarmists can't have it both ways. First GW caused more hurricanes then GW caused fewer hurricanes then GW caused more severe hurricanes. Yeah, riiiiight.

All the while, real hurricane experts have been saying that GW, real or imagined, does not affect hurricanes and that we have been having normal hurricane seasons.

Hilarious, just freakin' hilarious. Imagine the outcry if Bush flip-flopped like this.

EDIT - Amber:
Who is ignorant? Have you not kept up-to-date with the party line?

According to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4), hurricanes are "more likely than not" more intense due to human contributions.

Also according to IPCC-AR4, “[t]here is no clear trend in the annual numbers [i.e. frequency] of tropical cyclones.”

So, to sum it up, the IPCC (which is the most ardent supporter of anthropogenic GW and doomsday predictions) says there is a 51% chance that AGW causes more intense hurricanes, and the IPCC also says they don't see any increases in hurricane numbers.

If the most pro-global warming group in the world can't say for certainty that hurricanes are affected by AGW, how can you be so certain they are? Does that mean you have strayed outside of the almighty GW consensus? *gasp*

Answer 4

You have no proof for your assertion that at no time in history (you use the word "ever") have 2 category 5 hurricanes made landfall in the same season.

All you know is that it is the first such occurrence in MODERN history - since people started watching with sophisticated enough equipment to SEE Category 5 hurricanes anywhere on the planet.

So you're using the history of less than 100 years to gauge what's happened in the last 5 billion.

Typical Anthropogenic Global Warming Thinking - Al Gore would be proud!

Answer 5

i'd like to give you a respectable answer to your question

first tho, i want to say that i tried to read through the answers before me, and could barely even comprehend how ignorant some of these people were

this hurricane season is definitely pretty bad, its hard to say if its going to be the worst ever tho, and it is almost definitely GW and the climate change it entails influenced, scientists have pretty much all agreed that climate change worsens hurricanes, though it may or may not affect the frequency of them

also, yes, the 2006 season was a dud, this is because it ended up being an intense El Niño year, making it much less likey for hurricanes to form, which is too complicated to explain for some of the simpler people that seem to be responding to your question, i'm sure you could easily look that up though

finally the evidence that your looking for you or i have already mentioned, it's not that hard to put together, i don't see why some people don't seem to be able to

also just to add, yes its true that we dont have records of hurricanes way way back, but we do know temperatures and CO2 levels, and ours are way up above all of it

Answer 6

I have written extensively on hurricane preparation and safety here in the Caribbean.

Go to the (US) National Hurricane Center's web site.www.nhc.noaa.gov

Do a little digging and you will find the most active decade for hurricanes was:
the 1930's.

dig a little further for a report by Chris Landsea about GW and hurricanes. His conclusion THERE IS NO LINK NO CORRELATION.

Answer 7

this is "proof".

barry bonds broke the record this year, the most home runs ever.
what does that prove?

old skool b-ball players should of took steroids?

or records are occasionally broken?

obviously, you have proof of your claim that 2 atlantic huricanes have never hit at a cat 5, EVER?

or any of the other events you claim NEVER happened before?

or are just using a snippet of history, the last 100-200 years?

try watching 2 seconds of a major movie, and telling me how much money it's going to make. i'll believe you more.

we had two more minutes of rain here today than yesterday. now if you'll excuse me. i've got t go recycle something to get it back to "normal".

Answer 8

I believe it is the GW influence..."G"ods "W"ill..I know the season has changed a great deal in the last few years,and that scares me.I am from the south east part of Louisiana and I know Hurricanes.I fear them lasting longer and being stronger,it will be GW for me...

Answer 9

Yes, this is the worst ever. At no time in the past have things ever been this bad, so that's proof that global warming is man made.

Sheesh..... People will go to extremes to believe in global warming. I guess it's easier than looking up past history.