How?!?!?!?!?!?

Question

How can people say that ther are "____ thousands of deaths each year" due to global warming? It is a "butterfly effect" idea to say things like that.

"global warming will increase the temperature, which leads to drought, which leads to crop destruction, which leads to famine, which leads to disease, ..........." and so on. things are NEVER that cut and dry. There are thousands of other factors.

Hurricanes getting stronger? Try looking back in history. there have been multitudes of category 5 hurricanes. This is the first year in a long time that the area i live in has NOT experienced a drought.

If global warming is still debatable, how can people make statements that go that far in depth.

If scientists continually alter their predictions due to "unforeseen" factors, then why are they even making predictions in the first place.

I think the last article i saw said that the weather effects wont be felt for another 9 years due to "unforeseen events".

Answer 1

I asked a similar question a couple of days ago and never got down to the quantification aspect of it. The study was performed by WHO, which legitimizes it to an extent that these deaths and illnesses are real. What is less certain is the attribution part of it, and that gets to the heart of the question: How is WHO qualified to say that this drought or that this rainy season would not have happened without global warming.

As I understand it, three of the greatest causes of deaths by global warming were malaria, diarrhea, and malnutrition - this makes it sound like those deaths are predominately in the tropical to temperate zones. But climatologists have been telling us that the warming is NOT manifested in higher daytime highs but in higher nighttime lows during the hot months and simply less cold days during the cold months. They have also bee telling us that the greater temperature anomalies are being experienced at the poles. So, if the tropical regions are experiencing LESS THAN AVERAGE aspects of global warming, LESS than that experienced by those in the traditional temperate zones, then how are most of the deaths happening there?

Every time I hear a story like this, the credibility gap for man-made global warming just widens.

Answer 2

To answer this question factually requires a long and detailed answer and with all due respect I don't think you would objectively consider a response that doesn't conform to your views about global warming (that's just my impression from having looked at some of your previous answers).

Quantifying the number of deaths attributable to global warming uses the same scientific and statistical techniques that are applied to the analysis of any trend - sequential quantification of all varaibles bar the variable under test. This eliminates many possibilities, the remainder are further tested, relations established between other variables and constants until each variable can be assigned a value.

With all variables quantified it's possible to assign a value to the number of fatalities caused by global warming. The quantification procedure is subject to margins of error and variances so the final value falls into a range, that range being between 150,000 and 1,500,000 deaths per annum as a consequence of global warming, the most thorough research assigning values toward the lower end of the range.

I can explain it in detail for you should you wish.

Answer 3

By saying that thousands of deaths are caused by warming, it positions the argument between are you for or against causing thousands die? After all, how can anyone be FOR people dying? It's a bogus argument. It's an argument by intimidation.

Same goes with any other bad effect blamed on warming.

How could anyone be FOR hurricanes, droughts, floods, storms, pestilence, extinction, disease, etc? Remember it's just a bogus argument because there are no real fact to argue on.

Answer 4

you can't really blame weather related deaths on global warming directly, but as far as hurricanes:

since the surface temperature of an ocean is directly related to intensity of the hurricane, and it's the surface that is most effected by air temperature, there can be a relation between intensity and global warming. However, you can't blame the formation of the storm on global warming, global warming could have prevented a storm as well.

Answer 5

How the scientist gets his numbers is a very complicated process. Maybe you need to go to the college for many many years and get yourself phd to know all this accuratly! We are lucky because other people do the work for us. So don't worry if you don't understand the numbers. Be happy that there is the scientist over there who has the knowledge and can do all the calcalations for us and tell us so many wonderful things with there knowledge.

Answer 6

Its impossible to hold an intelligent conversation with them......they lack the intelligence. We might as well label them doomsayers. Thats pretty much what they do.....they ignore the fact that there aren't any facts to go by. Our recorded history just isn't long enough. It certainly isn't anything humans do that can cause the plates to move and volcanoes to erupt......which do you think is more likely to heat the waters that cover the majority of earths surface....a few billion people living on the land, or the extreme energy released by earth itsef?

Answer 7

Most of the alarmists would not admit to the fact that there are far more cold related deaths than heat related deaths and you never hear them say there will be 100s of more people die of heat related deaths but thousands fewer cold related deaths (just throwing out arbitrary numbers). That would tend to show that the problem they are so desparately trying to shove down our throats may not have as much merit as they pretend it does.

Answer 8

People can say whatever they want. The problem these days is that most scientists have an agenda and are not out strictly to find the truth.

Answer 9

Who is it that is saying this (about the thousands of deaths)?

Answer 10

**** happens!