The End is Nigh? Asteroid Apophis 2029/2036...?

Question

In 2004 the quarter mile wide asteroid Apophis had odds of 1/63,000 chance of hitting Earth in April 2029, now the odds are 1/45,000. So far NASA says it'll pass at just 22,300 miles from us where our comms satellites are (MUCH closer than our Moon) - but you can read plenty online saying it'll be even closer. However, it's generally agreed that if Apophis doesn't hit in 2029 it's SURE to hit Earth in 2036, because of its orbital path.

Even if this giant rock doesn't hit us in 2029 it's going to tear through the upper atmosphere, disrupt our protective geomagnetic field surrounding Earth & will possibly destroy satellites too - & unless we can divert its orbit before 2025 it WILL hit in 2036 with the estimated power of FIVE Krakatoas (NASA). So is Apophis the GREATEST potential threat to mankind in our current list of hysterias that includes global warming & terrorism?

It's certainly a threat we can pin a date on & understand its impact consequences - so WHY aren't the public being prepared by governments & WHY isn't the threat of Apophis a priority above global warming, etc?

Some links - there are many pages online about Apophis so just do a search for more...

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_risk_041224.html
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/science/2007/08/asteroid_attack.html
Earth.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2007/08/31/sciaster131.xml
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis#_note-0
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news146.html

Answer 1

Wow! This has caused a lot of polarised opinions. Basically, I am on the side of those who say - why panic? The chances of me or you being actually killed in such an impact is very low - dont forget something like 70% of the Earth's surface is covered in water. If it does hit us, lets face it you are not going to last long enough to worry about it.

You have a greater chance of being killed tomorrow crossing the road.

Chill out peeps. Its not something we really can (or indeed should?) do anything about. Lets face it, if someone like George Bush gets involved in this situation, we know they will only make it worse (like using a nuclear weapon which will shatter the asteroid into millions of lethal metorites which WILL kill someone for sure!)

This planet is a resiliant old broad. She's been around for 4.6 billion years so far, and survived many, many asteroid strikes before now, Im sure she will survive this one. In 2037, Ill be 71 years old, which given the health policies of this country probably means Ill be dead from state mandated euthanasia policies as no one will be able to afford pensions and elderly care. In the immortal words of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy - DON'T PANIC!

Nessie

Answer 2

Observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the "keyhole" would likely be missed and on August 5, 2006, Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 on the Torino Scale. As of October 19, 2006, the impact probability for April 13, 2036, is estimated at 1 in 45,000. An additional impact date in 2037 has been identified; however, the impact probability for that encounter is 1 in 12.3 million.

Despite the fact that there is no longer any significant probability of an Earth impact, the Planetary Society is offering $50,000 in prize awards for a few of the best plans to put a tracking device on or near the asteroid

Answer 3

I know this is a frightening situation. I believe in the fact that the governments of the world are taking steps, and aren't letting us know anything because "ignorance is bliss". I also believe that if we alter its path, it could destroy another world instead and that would have to be on our minds forever, what that would do to the universe. It is a hard pill to swallow, but if it is our time to go, then that is the universe's plan. However, I believe that the governments will try to do something. This is a naturally occuring thing that happens all over the universe everyday, one of the problems of being such an advanced society is that we sometimes know what is coming and are powerless to stop it. Just enjoy your life, if you are a scientist then you can worry and try to find a solution...

Answer 4

It is SURE to MISS!
In the top of your own wikipedia source it says,

"As of October 19, 2006, the impact probability for April 13, 2036, is estimated at 1 in 45,000. An additional impact date in 2037 has been identified; however, the impact probability for that encounter is 1 in 12.3 million."

And a "FIVE Krakatoas" impact is not that big a problem. We survived Krakatoa just fine and 5 times that will not be as much worse as you might imagine.

Answer 5

I feel certain that by then we will have the know how and technology to destroy or divert it.

Just look at the advances mankind has made over the last 100 years!

Answer 6

There are more immediate threats to mankind them being flooding, fire and .... other human beings - Don't let this "thing" worry you at presant - there is nothing YOU can do about it, just make sure you keep yourself out of immediate dangers

Answer 7

NOT EVEN CLOSE -

The Mayans civilisation were OBSESSED with time. 5000 years ago they worked out that the time of the 1999 total eclipse of the sun, but they were out - by TWO SECONDS (measured with modern atomic clocks).

What has this got to do with anything I hear you ask? Well their calendar only goes up to 21st Dec 2012.

We'll all be DEAD WAY BEFORE THE DATES YOU SAID.

On the up side, at least I won't have to worry about old age.

Answer 8

And do you know the galaxy Andromeda is heading on a collision course with the Sun? That galaxy is heading towards us at the speed of light! How will man ever survive?!?

Answer 9

That's why we need to stop global warming!

We need as much snow as possible... to dampen the impact!!!

;-)

Answer 10

well, as long as it takes our mind off global warming that will be to our advantage