Will oceans surge 59 centimetres this century - or 25 metres?

Question

story -> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070825.MELTING25/TPStory/Environment

The next 100 years melting ice could sink cities from the United States to Bangladesh according to the head of the climate science program at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York and a professor at Columbia University


-nachofoto
http://nachofoto.com

Answer 1

I don't know.

What I do know is this: 59 cm sea level rise worldwide is a LOT of water.

If the United States alone were subject to a 59cm rise in sea level, it would lose 10,000 sq miles of land.

If sea level rose to 25 meters, it would flood the planet.

Answer 2

No one knows.

As the article points out the IPCC report does not figure in positive feedbacks (one example; white ice melts, exposes dark ground, warming speeds up), because the data is not available to calculate them.

But most all scientists think there will be some positive feedbacks, although they disagree on the amount.

The IPCC reports are a "low end" estimate of what will happen.

"The drafting of reports by the world’s pre-eminent group of climate scientists is an odd process. For many months scientists contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change tussle over the evidence. Nothing gets published unless it achieves consensus. This means that the panel’s reports are extremely conservative – even timid. It also means that they are as trustworthy as a scientific document can be."

George Monbiot

Answer 3

It's impossible to say because we don't know what's going to happen with human greenhouse gas emissions over the next century. Eventually we will almost certainly decrease them, but when will this happen, and by how much?

If we begin to reduce them significantly and soon (starting within the next decade) then we might be able to avoid the melting of the Greenland Ice Shelf and stay in the centimeter range of sea level rise. If we fail to reduce our emissions, we're talking a sea level rise in the level of meters because of feedbacks not taken into account by the IPCC report.

We still have time to determine the consequences of global warming, but time is running out.

Answer 4

The North polar and glacial ice will give you about 20 meters (or it has when it's melted before). The South Polar ice hasn't melted previously since the continents formed, so no one knows. It would be somewhat more that the North, maybe another 30 meters.

Answer 5

If you are not sticking with the IPCC "consensus", you may as well pick some individual who claims that sea level rise will stay constant or DECREASE. There's as much to back that up.

The most pessimistic IPCC model gives a maximum sea level rise of 59cm. The most optimistic IPCC model gives a minimum of 18cm. The "consensus" model shoots for a maximum rise of 38cm.

Given that Hansen's 1988 prediction that was supposedly dead on in 1998 is now 100% off, and that even his most conservative prediction is 50-60% off, what reason would you have for accepting the 25 meter prediction over that of the IPCC models?

Answer 6

the only melting ice that will impact the sea level is landlocked ice. Free floating ice has already displaced all the water it can. It is just like having a full glass of icewater. When the ice melts, the glass doesnt overflow.

Answer 7

Depends, how much ice are you planning to melt in the next centruy.

Answer 8

I think the number is more like 100 km! The whole world is going to be under water because man refuses to change his evil ways.

Answer 9

59 centimeters, if even that much. Don't worry.