Foresight: Due to massive debt and the devalued dollar, what will retail sells be like this holiday season?

Question

What will that do to the market? Oh yea, that requires thinking beyond next week. Sorry.

Then there is also those high energy costs to heat the house...

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New neo-slogan "Don't worry. Be happy"
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LoveMuffins (below) Ahh, but due to the litany of bad debt/credit, why would banks keep lending. Also, the subprime lenders have made their billions and are now going away.

Brian (below) Confidence ends where debt payments begin. Jus as with the housng market, the US is near it's peak of debt. The air has to come out sooner or later. Thus it should occur this year.

B.Kevorkian (below) I think paying down debt will be the word for the day over the holidays.

Biggg (below) It does when the bulk of the stuff purchased comes from other countries. Are they going to drop their prices any lower than their cheap labor has already allowed them to?

Answer 1

It will really depend more on consumer confidence than anything else. If that is high then sales will be brisk and will of course be a positive for the market. If the opposite is true then the sales will be sluggish, bad for the stock market.

The sub-prime issues affected such a minuscule portion of the general population that there should be minimal impact on any credit needed for holiday shopping.

You can't assume it will happen this year or next year. The fact that bankruptcy filings have risen 42% over last year also means a lot of people have just unloaded a bunch of debt and can start anew. People who allow themselves to get in that position will no be afraid to borrow to spend this year.

Answer 2

The devalued dollar will increase retail sales proportionally to how it declines against competing foreign countries currency.

Americans will buy less foreign goods as they become more expensive and buy American goods.

Foreigners will purchase more American goods as they become cheaper, and buy less of their domestic products.

You really don't seem capable of understanding this.

A weak dollar DOES NOT AFFECT DOMESTIC PRICES.

No, the bulk of the stuff does not come from other countries. You might want to compare our countries retail sales with our trade numbers with China. Regardless of that, even the things that AMERICAN companies manufacture with China, the Yuan is tied almost directly to the value of the dollar. So once again, it does not affect retail sales negatively, but positively. Even if a shirt, or something else, is manufactured in China by a foreign owned entity, we would still make far more on its retail sale than if we had made it ourselves.

I really suggest you do some research on this because you have a very basic misunderstanding about this. You are confusing cause and effect. Higher retail sales (in general, not just on domestic products) will raise a currency, not the other way around. A weak dollar, on the other hand, will cause higher spending on DOMESTIC goods, and this includes products we have manufactured in China.

Got it?

Answer 3

The dollar has fallen dramatically against the Euro in the last year, but not against the Yaun or Yen. Chances are, then, that next winter, you'll see people buying fewer gifts for eachother made in Europe, and more made in Asia (possibly even a few more made in America).

I'd like to think that the current credit crunch and high levels of consumer debt would finally start working themselves therough the economy this year. But, high levels of debt have done nothing to discourage consumer spending the last few years, so you never know.

Answer 4

Always up during the holidays.
Consumer non spending? I think there is a shift in the markets where the money is going. More and more money is being shipped out of the country, making poor people even poorer except those working here illegally. People really need to take into consideration the differences in where people spend their money. Someone who is here, raising a family and wanting to buy a house is going to spend money on items like homes, cars, appliances. People living here, working, to send money back home are not spending the money they make in the same way. It has a spiral effect upward, creates less demand for traditional products, which makes less jobs, which creates less money to spend, etc.
10% of people spending their money in different markets can make a big difference.

Answer 5

The experts say consumer non-spending is already hurting the economy. People are very cautious with their money right now. Last year was bad but I would say this year will be worse further putting the economy in a downward spiral.

Answer 6

Well, in another question you gave your own answer, you said that retail is going to tank. You even made it the premise of your question. So the answer to your question is, obviously, by your logic, sales will be down the toilet.

Now, since you predicted it, tell us how much.

Because when Chi Guy talks, people listen...eh?

Go Cubbies!!!

Answer 7

Sales will be great. People don't care about debt and the devalued dollar they will just shop shop & shop.

And the banks will be happy to keep giving them credit and enslaving them through debt.

As long as the banks keep giving money to the people the people will take it and spend it and around and around.

Answer 8

Sorry to hear you're in so much debt, Chi, that's alright, I'm sure everyone who isn't blowing their paycheck on pot, lottery tickets, or alcohol will be able to spend enough to make up for you.

Answer 9

Holiday season! Let's just sit back and enjoy late summer and fall?

Answer 10

Get back to me in January and I will give you a detailed report.