Isn't the real test of "the Surge" what happens when we pull out ?

Question

Think of it like this...if you put 20 cops on a block in a crime ridden area, crime rates would go down while they were there...what happens when they leave?

sunnis & shittes have been killing each other for 1400 hundrend years so even if we don't "set a date" something tells me they'll wait...your reply?

Answer 1

Good point. The goal of the Surge was two-fold.

First, to increase stability in Baghdad to allow the Iraqi govt to make serious progress. Two of the larger power blocks in the Iraqi govt have walked out, local provincial governors are being killed, Baghdad is just as violent as ever -- not a lot a progress on that front.

Second, to train and prepare Iraqi combat units to take over. In January there were 10 combat-ready units. In June, there were 6 -- seems like the wrong direction.....

And with the Iraq govt completing zero of its 18 agreed upon milestones (and only 8 showing even "satisfactory progress towards completion") ..... but I guess that's how some people define "working".

In which case, I'd hate to see "not working".

Answer 2

What do you mean pull out?

Whether you pull out now or then isn't really the issue there will be a civil war anyway, it is just who has the guns and equipment and who supports who. The US is just there to secure oil interests and otherwise, I don't see a full pullout in Iraq for years to come - but you may see a gradual withdrawl as the defence spending of the occupational iraqi government gets more equipment and combat 'ready' units. Since the former Iraqi government is fighting a guerrilla war - and the Sunni's largely subjugated by a "rule by majority" - due to Shiite population - the issue is though that with a majority group in government cooperation among minority groups is required - as well the majority has no need for the minority support - if it is allowed to rule by force alone - in putting down "terrorism" even though I think that those "terrorists" are real Iraqi Citizens from when the Bathist government was administering Iraq.

Anyway - the surge is just upping occupational numbers - it actually means troop removal takes longer and is more costly... and the war will cost more.

I don't see what they are trying to accomplish with increasing troop numbers unless Iraq is a beachhead. I never realized there was an operational short fall in Iraq - I was under the impression good equipment was scarce - so why bring more people into it if you can't equip the ones you already have? (or are you going to buy more $$$ equipment too...)

Maybe the issues arn't the same but for a military - stretched thin with enrollment down I don't fully understand the strategy involved.

I think the next date americans who would like a pullout in iraq have to look forward to is when reserve forces are no longer used - and only regular military is deployed there.. as use of reserves, or national gaurvery much turns the war into a different flavour. I always invisioned reserve and national gaurd being used for "defensive" or emergency capacities - but as stated Iraq was a "preemptive" action.

Forcing contracts by coercion by use of force renders all contracts null legally, not that the US necisarily cares about legality.

They are trying to leverage the traitors to sustain - so that the civil war is long and debilitating so Iraq can't do anything with it's oil wealth but heal itself. But what you will likely see is common assasinations. And a very raw political enviornment and an opening up of Iraq to places like Iran.


I thought I would add that the US is leaving a ton of equipment in Iraq- cause it's too expensive to bring back... which leads reserve forces and national gaurd ect.. to just buy new stuff meaning defence spending goes UP. Not only on the war front but the home front.

Legitimizing force transition such as aquistion of "new generation equipment'

If you are wondering when the next "big" war might be (not saying that one is over yet) - look at when the future warrior program is going to be "phazed in".

Answer 3

Always the quitter?... the cop analogy is actually what we are doing... the cops don't just walk around twirling their batons... they make arrest... thus removing the cause of the "crime ridden area"... remove the criminals and the crime goes away... But if they announce that they will leave soon, the criminals just lay low and come back when the cops are gone...

Answer 4

When the US leaves Iraq, the Iraqi army, police and national guard will be up an running. They will be able to take care of their own problems. I suspect that they will be less politically correct when they take over.

Answer 5

As long as we sit here and tell the bad guys that we will leave on a set date, they will stay quiet until we leave and then start acting up (if they were smart). You NEVER tell the enemy when you plan to leave or indicate that you dont have the will to stay as long as it takes.

Answer 6

yes.

But the longer we are there, the more the tension builds against us.