Have you been wondering why people are suddenly saying 1934 was the hottest year?

Question

We have our answer! Reportedly there was a Y2K glitch which changed the temperature measurements thusly:

"NASA has now silently released corrected figures, and the changes are truly astounding. The warmest year on record is now 1934. 1998 (long trumpeted by the media as record-breaking) moves to second place. 1921 takes third. In fact, 5 of the 10 warmest years on record now all occur before World War II. Anthony Watts has put the new data in chart form, along with a more detailed summary of the events."

http://www.dailytech.com/Blogger+finds+Y2K+bug+in+NASA+Climate+Data/article8383.htm

The fatal flaw - these are not global temperature measurements, but US temperature measurements (and just the lower 48 at that):

"Contiguous 48 U.S. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly"

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D.txt

So there you have it, 1934 was not nearly as warm as recent years globally:

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/

But it was hot in the USA.

Harry - tiny changes in the average US temperature is going to have virtually no effect on the average global temperature.

Harry #2 - because the US is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases (essentially tied with China). We encompass a tiny fraction of the Earth's surface (hence the small temp. variation making no difference to the planet), but our hassive GHG emissions get spread throughout the atmosphere, effecting the whole world.

Jello - are you really that dumb? I showed you the plot of the average global temperature. 1934 isn't even as high as 1940, let alone the 2000's! You think that high temperatures in the US, Helsinki, and Stokholm means that the entire planet had high temperatures? Even though I already proved that wasn't the case??

Open your freaking eyes and mind, fella.

Answer 1

DANA (HE SHOUTED) - You're wrong, but in a way that should please you. The disinformation involved here is far worse than what you've indicated.

The data involved is the temperature "anomaly", the yearly variation from the (in this case 30 year) average. 1934 was in no way the warmest year on record, even in the US. It simply was the most warmer than the 30 year average. Since the anomalies after 1973 or so are mostly positive, they add, and the temperature keeps increasing.

Here's what NASA says about the error:

"Erratum: Please note that prior to 26 June 2000, the mean values added to the land and ocean anomalies were incorrect. These data are now correct. Analysis of trends in the time series would not be impacted by this error since the error involved adding a constant to the entire period of record."

The trends in the times series are of course the global warming data.

The blogger who posted this disinformation says "I strongly suspect this story will receive little to no attention from the mainstream media." Yes. And no wonder.

Easiest 10 points I've ever gotten.

Answer 2

I'm not sure about a Y2K glitch, I think that's an excuse for human error. But anyway, your reporting of the figures is more realistic than the reporting in the Daily Tech which, as is often the case, focuses on single years in a single country whilst chosing to ignore the larger and picture.

Globally 1934 was a truly unremarkable year with temperatures in line with the long term average. What's more revealing is that the last time global average temperatures fall to 1934 levels was back in 1976.

On a global scale 1934 is the joint 45th hottest year on record, 1998 is the 2nd hottest and 2005 is the hottest (2007 is on target to break the existing record).

When the new NASA figures are factored into the global picture the difference they make is tiny. It means the figures for the last 100 years are out by a little under 0.001°C, it's the same amount that average global temperatures are rising by every 20 days.

Answer 3

Global warming has little to do with surface temperatures in the USA, and everything to do with Ocean Currents and water temperatures, especially at the North & South Poles.

Answer 4

Much of the Russian temperatures dropped off the charts after the fall of the USSR. I wonder if Russia would bring the average up or down. Surface temperatures in the US are not very meaningful in determining global warming since they are so affected by urbanization and other factors. It does segue into the fact that a preponderance of the evidence is indeed from the northern hemisphere and especially, North America. This is rarely revealed by the GW alarmists.

Answer 5

No, this was world wide. Along with the Dust Bowl days in the 1930's, there was record heat in Sweden with the warmest years being for

Helsinki: 1934, 1938, 1943, 1949, 1961, 1974-1975, 1989-1990, 2000

and

Stockholm: 1934, 1938, 1943, 1949, 1975, 1989-1990, 1999-2000, 2002

These readings correspond to those in the USA, proving warming in the 1930's was world wide.

And people haven't been "suddenly" saying that 1934 was hot. People were saying that for years. Now the 'believers' are finally understanding the data that researchers have known for years.

Answer 6

I'm confused.

Don't the corrected figures for US temperatures have an effect on Global Temperatures or not? Have the new temperature corrections for the US been added to the global temp graph on http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming already? I think the Phil Jones site is now out of date with current numbers (the site references something from 2006.)



EDIT: If US temperatures make little difference to the global temparature, than how in the heck is the US the number one contributer to Global warming??

Answer 7

I'm glad you posted that, I've been meaning to bring up the Dust Bowl era. Lots of GW alarmists are claiming that the temperature fluctuations this year (high in some states, low in others, including mine) are due to GW, but don't explain why things have obviously cooled down since the 30s.

Answer 8

Wasn't Death Valley 134 degrees F in 1934? Nevertheless, the avg. temp. wasn't as hot as more recent temps.

Answer 9

Exactly correct. Of course, the "skeptics" are too close-minded to realize that the entire Earth is involved--or that that's a lot bigger than their little corner of the world.

And--here's a bit o fadditional information--the short-term ht weather and drought in the mid-1930s led to the "Dust Bowl"--massive crop failures and hundreds of thousands of farmers losing their farms.

Global warming--if it isn't dealt with--is going mean similar disasters--not jsut for part of one country, but worldwide. And not just for a few years, but for decades.

Answer 10

According to NASA, 2005 was the hottest year, odds are good on 2007 surpassing it.

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/2005_warmest.html