If you really believe "Global Warming" is real?

Question

Prove all of us non believers by telling us at the current rate of pollution, it will be xDegF six months from now, 1 year from now, 2 years, 5 years from now.

After your dead on forcast, you'll be able to look us non believer and say you "told us so".

It's that simple, why not take us up on this? Do you need a consensus to read the tea leaves for you?

Maybe we shoud build a defence against Martian attacks. It might not happen, but why not do it just incase?

Dana - Long term trend? Then just give me 2 3.5 and 5 years out and I'll give you +/-2.5 deg F. Or you pick your range if that isn't good enough. Somehow I STILL doubt you'll take the challenge.

Joker - Prove to me that we are in a long range warming trend. Just tell me what temp the climate is going to be several years out. You do that, and I'll be a believer.

Yea John, I could tell you what the reactance will be in 3 years. I just need to know a couple of variables. I can also tell you the reactance 30 years from now as well.

You however can't tell me with any certainty that it will even be warmer 5 years from now.

No one can predict the future John, not you, nor a "consensus".

Answer 1

For those who _don't_ know:

Global warming is one-half of the climatic cycle of warming and cooling.
The earth's mean temperature cycles around the freezing point of water.
This is a completely natural phenomenon which has been going on since there has been water on this planet. It is driven by the sun.
Our planet is currently emerging from a 'mini ice age', so is becoming warmer and may return to the point at which Greenland is again usable as farmland (as it has been in recorded history).
As the polar ice caps decrease, the amount of fresh water mixing with oceanic water will slow and perhaps stop the thermohaline cycle (the oceanic heat 'conveyor' which, among other things, keeps the U.S. east coast warm).
When this cycle slows/stops, the planet will cool again and begin to enter another ice age.
It's been happening for millions of years.
Humans did not cause it.
Humans cannot stop it.

Answer 2

Five years from now is not sufficient time. The average annual rate of global warming is about 0.03 C per year, and so the expected increase in average annual temperature in 5 years is 0.15 C. However, this value is comparable to the root-mean-square fluctuation in global annual average temperature due to natural causes, and so the signal-to-noise after only 5 years is about unity, and there is about a 30% chance that the global average annual temperature would be lower than today, even if global warming is real.

The 0.03 C is inexorable, however. After a century, the temperature will almost certainly be 3 C higher, and after another century 3 C higher than that. Continue on for a few more centuries and it's mass extinction for sure.

To see that global warming is happening, you have to look at the present day in comparison to the past. A 100-year record into the past is sufficient.

On the other hand, I'd be willing to bet even money that the global average annual temperature in 2012 is at least 0.15 C higher than 2007.

Answer 3

How would a perfect prediction of future temperature on specific dates prove anything? Everyone knows that temperature fluctuations depend on a lot of variables. The theory of global warming is based on an examination of past trends, such as measurable increases in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere combined with historical temperature data, combined with computer models which extrapolate this data into the future. No one claims that these models can perfectly predict what the temperature will be x number of years from now, but it can give us a pretty likely range.

Answer 4

So I could test the truth of OHMS Law by predicting the Inductive Reactance of a coil in the power generating station at Niagra Falls? The third one from the left, on Valentines Day 2010? And if I could not do that then OHMS Law must then be false? I'm expecting to see your name at the top of the list at the next Nobel Prizes, for discovering this previously unknown principle of science.

Up to now I have had nothing to go on but my tea leaves! On the other hand if my tea leaves did correctly predict the existence of pink elephants they would pop into existence out of thin air, according to Jello's Law. There's an upside to everything!

Answer 5

You know, I'm no meteorologist or climatologist, but I can tell you one thing. The weather, the heat itself is nothing. That's just a factor of it all.

The real signs are at the poles. The polar caps are detaching. Melting. Look up the expeditions that were conducted in the arctic and you'll see/read what they found... like polar bears starving because of the lack of food and penguin population lowering because the eggs get stranded on ice blocks that detach themselves from the banks.

Another fact... I live in Montreal, Canada. They found a shark in a lake up a few hours from here, near Baie-Comeau. It was all over the news. I don't remember what species it was (but I'm pretty sure it was a Greenland shark). Fact is, Greenland is way up North in the arctic. They never have been spotted in that area until 2004, year in which the specimen was found. More were spotted since. The water is getting warmer and they are migrating southwards. Species are migrating from their original territories because of the water warming up. This is true for several species of land animals as well. This is the type of thing that brings us new, "foreign" species which we are not accustomed to and could cause serious problems in the long run.

Enough ranting from me... but these are the real indicators. Weather is only one factor that is barely visible. Keep in mind there are bigger signs, more alarming than the ambient weather.

Answer 6

How many times do people have to tell you that it's not about year-to-year variations, but about long-term trends. Just like it's impossible and irrelevant to tell you the exact temperature in Walla-Walla tomorrow, it's impossible to predict the exact global temperature in 6 months or 1 year or 2 years because there are yearly variations (the oft-cited 1998 is a great example).

Here are some plots of climate model predictions over the next century (though they don't take most potential feedbacks into account).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Global_Warming_Predictions.png

The current trend is an increase by about 0.03°C per decade, so in 5 years the average global temperature will be roughly 0.15°C hotter than now. That's roughly 59°F, give or take. Of course yearly variations are bigger than this small variation, which is why global warming predictions are long-term!!!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_temperature_record

James Hansen (NASA climatologist) also predicted the warming from 1988-Present quite accurately nearly 20 years ago:

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/edu/gwdebate/

So I'll conclude by saying:

James Hansen told you so. If you give me 59°F +/- 2.5°F any year between now and 2020 I'll take it, and then I'll tell you that I told you so too.

Answer 7

This is way too easy:

T | DegF
-----------------------
6 m | 52degF
1y | 96degF
2y | 83degF overcast and chance of heavy showers
5y | 94degF high winds, front moving through area,
several weather warnings already issued,
tornado touchdowns expected

Those numbers are taken from sites around the world. I'll tell you where it is happening on the date in question.

Answer 8

But your proof lies in the fact that the ice caps are melting.
Whether or not it's caused by people is yet to be determined, but GLOBAL WARMING IS happening.

Check out a National Geographic before you start talking out your butt about something you don't understand.

there are lots and lots of third world impoverished countries that don't regulate their pollution and aren't reliable to release that information to us.
Therefore, genius, there is NO way to accurately tell what the rate of pollution is.

While pollution may not be the cause for global warming, it probably IS the cause for the honey bees dying out...which is much much more detrimental than global warming.
But people are mostly jerky anyway, your question is a prime example of the basic jerkiness of people. In my opinion they, mostly you, deserve to be wiped out.

Why don't you prove that it's NOT happening

Answer 9

It's real, and if you don't believe you aren't well educated. Just turn on the local weather channel, or take a gander at the hurricane's. If people would stop killing the Amazon Rainforest that would solve about 50% of the problem. The rest of it is simply conservation and planting more trees.

Answer 10

Forget telling me what the temparture will be. Do something simplier like telling me what the score of next years world series will be. That's got fewer variables than the weather. By the way have a look at surfacestations.org to see the "scientific way" data is collected. There a lot of temperature sensors right next to heat concentrators like asphalt and BBQs.