Global Warming Fans, what do you think about those hurricane predictions that collapsed? So much for models!?

Question

I thought the Atlantic was supposed to be warmer.

Answer 1

It may surprise you to learn that most of the experts do not agree global warming will cause more hurricanes.

These are exerts from Chris Landsea, on of the foremost experts on hurricanes, on his letter of resignation from the IPCC.

"I found it a bit perplexing that the participants in the Harvard press conference had come to the conclusion that global warming was impacting hurricane activity today. To my knowledge, none of the participants in that press conference had performed any research on hurricane variability, nor were they reporting on any new work in the field. All previous and current research in the area of hurricane variability has shown no reliable, long-term trend up in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones, either in the Atlantic or any other basin."

"Moreover, the evidence is quite strong and supported by the most recent credible studies that any impact in the future from global warming upon hurricane will likely be quite small."

"It is beyond me why my colleagues would utilize the media to push an unsupported agenda that recent hurricane activity has been due to global warming. Given Dr. Trenberth’s role as the IPCC’s Lead Author responsible for preparing the text on hurricanes, his public statements so far outside of current scientific understanding led me to concern that it would be very difficult for the IPCC process to proceed objectively with regards to the assessment on hurricane activity"

"It is certainly true that "individual scientists can do what they wish in their own rights", as one of the folks in the IPCC leadership suggested. Differing conclusions and robust debates are certainly crucial to progress in climate science. However, this case is not an honest scientific discussion conducted at a meeting of climate researchers. Instead, a scientist with an important role in the IPCC represented himself as a Lead Author for the IPCC has used that position to promulgate to the media and general public his own opinion that the busy 2004 hurricane season was caused by global warming, which is in direct opposition to research written in the field and is counter to conclusions in the TAR."

Answer 2

You are misinformed.

The Oceans are indeed warming. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/04/ocean-cooling-not/#more-436

For the record....

"Putting global surface temperatures aside, there are some other significant model predictions made and confirmed:

*Models predict that surface warming should be accompanied by cooling of the stratosphere, and this has indeed been observed;

*Models have long predicted warming of the lower, mid, and upper troposphere, even while satellite readings seemed to disagree -- but it turns out the satellite analysis was full of errors and on correction, this warming has been observed;
models predict warming of ocean surface waters, as is now observed;

*Models predict an energy imbalance between incoming sunlight and outgoing infrared radiation, which has been detected;

*Models predict sharp and short-lived cooling of a few tenths of a degree in the event of large volcanic eruptions, and Mount Pinatubo confirmed this;

*Models predict an amplification of warming trends in the Arctic region, and this is indeed happening;

*And finally, to get back to where we started, models predict continuing and accelerating warming of the surface, and so far they are correct."

Answer 3

Excellent answer, chuck.

However, I am interested in the second half of the question about the Atlantic being cooler. Unlike all the excuses about local weather and week to week changes, valid hypotheses, or even long term predictions, there is no getting around the fact that oceanic temperature trends are not simply local "weather".

Not a single one of the alarmists even bothered to mention it. I don't believe in global warming, but even I would have figured an SST increase given recent trends. (Then again, the IPCC AR4 says that their global warming models only correlate a link to land temperatures.)

Answer 4

Hurricanes are just one of the many scare-tactics that the Global Warming Alarmists use in an attempt to panic the public onto the climate change bandwagon.

Eric c, above, has already mentioned Chris Landsea – I recommend everybody reads about it, but I think it’s important enough to state again here.

Dr. Kevin Trenberth, a lead author in the IPCC, held a press conference entitled “Experts to warn global warming likely to continue spurring more outbreaks of intense hurricane activity” despite the fact that, as Chris Landsea put it, “All previous and current research in the area of hurricane variability has shown no reliable, long-term trend up in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones, either in the Atlantic or any other basin.” So Dr. Trenberth was lying!

Crabby_blindguy, above, says that “prediction is NOT related to global warming” followed by: “The only ones who don't get this are the nitwits who… keep making posts about hurricanes and global warming as if it were somehow "evidence" against the latter.”

I wonder, however, whether Mr. Blindguy would change his tune if hurricane activity *was* increasing? Or, at the very least, I would suspect that he would remain conspicuously quite while others made claims of links between increasing hurricane activity and global warming.

It’s always the way, isn’t it? Anything that happens which seems to challenge the claims of the Global Warming Alarmists and it’s all cries of ‘that’s just weather – it’s nothing to do with global warming’, but anything that happens which seems to support their claims and it’s ‘see? SEE! We’re doomed!’

Case in point: the current wet July here in the UK.

See this question: http://uk.answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=AgszG.iS6iOp9kQ.tRHUU8IhBgx.?qid=20070723160555AAu222h&show=7#profile-info-c7fd712869190ec6f78f0911d2b19572aa

“A scientific report which will be published on Thursday will say that 85% of the increase in rainfall in the mid northerly latititudes (the band that includes the UK) is the result of human induced climate change.”

http://uk.answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=AgQXYBR_YhF7Kt1xMsYZ.NMhBgx.?qid=20070725001432AANLSWm&show=7#profile-info-0ae66a38ded0702aa7ea89fa4f72a2e9aa

“maybe if people just ASSUMED it was global warming then they'd make more of an effort to help stop it”!!!!!!!

http://uk.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070722130521AA0uSF2&r=w&pa=AptqD2bwHTHf5uSDaKY1v4e1FCL4D8ppJylU1huM36emR_oAbmrIAKaidzz59uFOKBFIjEj8UON5KA--&paid=voted

“The recent floods for example have probably been exacerbated by global warming.”

See what I mean? Where was Mr. Blindguy on these questions preaching ‘you’re a nitwit for posting about floods and global warming as if they were somehow "evidence" supporting the latter.’ Can I hear the word ‘hypocrite’ being whispered somewhere?

As ever with global warming - don't believe the hype.

Answer 5

There are many factors that need to exist in order to create a hurricane besides the temperature of the ocean. Predicting hurricanes is as difficult as predicting the weather for a particular day in future months. Not very accurate. Predictions are made because the general public wants the predictions. It makes people feel better.

Answer 6

That prediction stil stands--we're only 7 weelks into the hurricane season (just in canse you don't know--it runs from June 1 to November 30).

And--that prediction is NOT related to global warming--it was/is mad on the basis of othr climate models. There is a POSSIBLE relationshipbetween global warming and projected rises in hurricane intensity and frequency. At this point though, scientists have been very clear: that is a hypothesis.

The only ones who don't get this are the nitwits who are too ignorant to know the difference between a hypothesis and a demonstrated fact--so they keep making posts about hurricanens and global warming as if it were soehow "evidence" against the latter. They're jsut showing their own ignorance.

Here's another example of their ignorance: they keep saying "but there were'nt all the hurricanes predicted last year." These idiots think that the world extendas a sfar as the Eastern seaboard, apparently. Worldide, last year, there wre MORE cyclonic storms than average, not less. We jsust got luck in that none hit the US mainland. That doesn't mean they wern't there--there is a big world out there beyond the end of their noses.

Answer 7

There is a difference between predicting specific weather events compared to the probabilities that such events will occur. Compare with playing cards in Las vegas. The house won't be able to predict which hand you will get or who will win in a certain hand. However, the probabilities is on their side and they ensure that they( the House) will win in the long-term. In the same way it can be said what the trends will lead to over longer periods.

Answer 8

the hurricanes did NOT occur because of global warming.

i stubbed my toe today because of global warming.

you are going to get cavities because of global warming.

PLEASE! try to understand, for the sake of future generations, that global warming is the biggest threat in our life time!

i can't see why people don't see that. next time don't ask silly questions. just follow along like the rest of the sheeple.

Answer 9

The predictions did not collapse, they decreased the total projected number of hurricanes this season from 15 to 14!

One of the reasons is that the Atlantic is not currently as warm as expected. One day or week or month or season's temperature in one region tells you nothing about global warming.

Basically you're confusing climate with weather.

Answer 10

climate change models will provide numerous results for the next century,
its all dependent on the assumptions that go into it(ie. policy/economic/technological shifts etc).
so anyways, models can be very wrong, but can be accurate as well