Attributed and expected effects
Main article: Effects of global warming
Sparse records indicate that glaciers have been retreating since the early 1800s. In the 1950s measurements began that allow the monitoring of glacial mass balance, reported to the WGMS and the NSIDC.Though it is difficult to connect specific weather events to global warming, an increase in global temperatures may in turn cause other changes, including glacial retreat and worldwide sea level rise. Changes in the amount and pattern of precipitation may result in flooding and drought. There may also be changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Other effects may include changes in agricultural yields, reduced summer streamflows, species extinctions and increases in the range of disease vectors.
Some effects on both the natural environment and human life are, at least in part, already being attributed to global warming. A 2001 report by the IPCC suggests that glacier retreat, ice shelf disruption such as the Larsen Ice Shelf, sea level rise, changes in rainfall patterns, increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, are being attributed in part to global warming.[47] While changes are expected for overall patterns, intensity, and frequencies, it is difficult to attribute specific events to global warming. Other expected effects include water scarcity in some regions and increased precipitation in others, changes in mountain snowpack, adverse health effects from warmer temperatures.
Increasing deaths, displacements, and economic losses projected due to extreme weather attributed to global warming may be exacerbated by growing population densities in affected areas, although temperate regions are projected to experience some minor benefits, such as fewer deaths due to cold exposure.[48] A summary of probable effects and recent understanding can be found in the report made for the IPCC Third Assessment Report by Working Group II.[47] The newer IPCC Fourth Assessment Report summary reports that there is observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean since about 1970, in correlation with the increase in sea surface temperature, but that the detection of long-term trends is complicated by the quality of records prior to routine satellite observations. The summary also states that there is no clear trend in the annual worldwide number of tropical cyclones.[1]
Additional anticipated effects include sea level rise of 110 to 770 millimeters (0.36 to 2.5 ft) between 1990 and 2100,[49] repercussions to agriculture, possible slowing of the thermohaline circulation, reductions in the ozone layer, increased intensity and frequency of hurricanes and extreme weather events, lowering of ocean pH, and the spread of diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. One study predicts 18% to 35% of a sample of 1,103 animal and plant species would be extinct by 2050, based on future climate projections.[50] Two populations of Bay checkerspot butterfly are being threatened by changes in precipitation, though few mechanistic studies have documented extinctions due to recent climate change.[51]
Economics
Main articles: Economics of global warming and Low-carbon economy
Some economists have tried to estimate the aggregate net economic costs of damages from climate change across the globe. Such estimates have so far failed to reach conclusive findings; in a survey of 100 estimates, the values ran from US$-10 per tonne of carbon (tC) (US$-3 per tonne of carbon dioxide) up to US$350/tC (US$95 per tonne of carbon dioxide), with a mean of US$43 per tonne of carbon (US$12 per tonne of carbon dioxide).[48] One widely-publicized report on potential economic impact is the Stern Review; it suggests that extreme weather might reduce global gross domestic product by up to 1%, and that in a worst case scenario global per capita consumption could fall 20%.[52] The report's methodology, advocacy and conclusions have been criticized by many economists, primarily around the Review's assumptions of discounting and its choices of scenarios,[53] while others have supported the general attempt to quantify economic risk, even if not the specific numbers.[54][55]
In a summary of economic cost associated with climate change, the United Nations Environment Programme emphasizes the risks to insurers, reinsurers, and banks of increasingly traumatic and costly weather events. Other economic sectors likely to face difficulties related to climate change include agriculture and transport. Developing countries, rather than the developed world, are at greatest economic risk.[56]
Adaptation and mitigation
Main articles: Adaptation to global warming, Mitigation of global warming, and Kyoto Protocol
The broad agreement among climate scientists that global temperatures will continue to increase has led nations, states, corporations and individuals to implement actions to try to curtail global warming or adjust to it. Many environmental groups encourage action against global warming, often by the consumer, but also by community and regional organizations. There has been business action on climate change, including efforts at increased energy efficiency and (still limited) moves to alternative fuels. One important innovation has been the development of greenhouse gas emissions trading through which companies, in conjunction with government, agree to cap their emissions or to purchase credits from those below their allowances.
The world's primary international agreement on combating global warming is the Kyoto Protocol, an amendment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), negotiated in 1997. The Protocol now covers more than 160 countries globally and over 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions.[57] The United States (historically the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter), Australia, and Kazakhstan have not ratified the treaty. China (which is expected to soon overtake the US in greenhouse gas emissions) and India have ratified the treaty, but as developing countries, are exempt from its provisions. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has called on the nation to redouble its efforts to tackle pollution and global warming.[58]
This treaty expires in 2012, and international talks began in May 2007 on a future treaty to succeed the current one.[59]
The world's primary body for crafting a response is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a UN-sponsored activity which holds periodic meetings between national delegations on the problems of global warming, and issues working papers and assessments on the current status of the science of climate change, impacts, and mitigation. It convenes four different working groups examining various specific issues. For example, in May 2007, the IPCC held conferences in Bonn, Germany,[60] and in Bangkok, Thailand.[61]
In the absence of clear concerted action by the US Federal government, various state, local, and regional governments have begun their own initiatives to indicate support and compliance with the Kyoto Protocol, on a local basis. For example, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI),[62] is a state-level emissions capping and trading program, which was founded on January 18, 2007 and is comprised of eight Northeastern US states.
Issue debate, political processes and laws
Main articles: Global warming controversy and politics of global warming
Increased awareness of the scientific findings surrounding global warming has resulted in political and economic debate. Poor regions, particularly Africa, appear at greatest risk from the suggested effects of global warming, while their actual emissions have been negligible compared to the developed world[63]. At the same time, developing country exemptions from provisions of the Kyoto Protocol have been criticized by the United States and have been used as part of its justification for continued non-ratification.[64] In the Western world, the idea of human influence on climate and efforts to combat it has gained wider acceptance in Europe than in the United States.[65][66]
Fossil fuel organizations and companies such as American Petroleum Institute and ExxonMobil, represented by Philip Cooney, and some think tanks such as the Competitive Enterprise Institute and the Cato Institute have campaigned to downplay the risks of climate change,[67][68] while environmental groups and entertainers have launched campaigns emphasizing the risks. Recently, some fossil fuel companies have scaled back such efforts[69] or called for policies to reduce global warming.[70]
This issue has sparked debate in the U.S. about the benefits of limiting industrial emissions of greenhouse gases to reduce impacts to the climate, versus the effects on economic activity and also about the politic manipulation of scientific testimonies and reports.[71][72].
There has also been discussion in several countries about the cost of adopting alternate, cleaner energy sources in order to reduce emissions.[73]
Another point of debate is the degree to which newly-developed economies, like India and China, should be expected to constrain their emissions and change to renewable energies. China's CO2 emissions (mainly from coal power plants and cars), are expected to exceed those of the U.S. within the next few years (and according to one report may have already done so[74]). China has contended that it has less obligation to reduce emissions, since its emissions per capita are about one-fifth those of the U.S.; the U.S. contends that if they must bear the costs of reducing emissions, so should China.[75] India will also soon be one of the biggest sources of industrial emissions, and has made assertions similar to China's on this issue. [76]
Related climatic issues
Main articles: Ocean acidification, global dimming, and ozone depletion
A variety of issues are often raised in relation to global warming. One is ocean acidification. Increased atmospheric CO2 increases the amount of CO2 dissolved in the oceans.[77] CO2 dissolved in the ocean reacts with water to form carbonic acid resulting in acidification. Ocean surface pH is estimated to have decreased from approximately 8.25 to 8.14 since the beginning of the industrial era,[78] and it is estimated that it will drop by a further 0.14 to 0.5 units by 2100 as the ocean absorbs more CO2.[1][79] Since organisms and ecosystems are adapted to a narrow range of pH, this raises extinction concerns, directly driven by increased atmospheric CO2, that could disrupt food webs and impact human societies that depend on marine ecosystem services.[80]
Another related issue that may have partially mitigated global warming in the late twentieth century is global dimming, the gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface. From 1960 to 1990 human-caused aerosols likely precipitated this effect. Scientists have stated with 66–90% confidence that the effects of human-caused aerosols, along with volcanic activity, have offset some of global warming, and that greenhouse gases would have resulted in more warming than observed if not for these dimming agents.[1]
Ozone depletion, the steady decline in the total amount of ozone in Earth's stratosphere, is frequently cited in relation to global warming. Although there are areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong.
See also
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answer #5
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