Questions for global warming believers?

Question

How do the people who believe in global warming respond to these specific criticisms?

1. The overwhelming majority of carbon dioxide is produced by natural sources, rather than humans. Therefore it's unlikely that human made carbon dioxide is creating global warming. Termites alone create more carbon dioxide than humans.

2. Similar to number 1, a single volcanic eruption releases several times more carbon dioxide than humans release in an entire year. But the world has survived countless volcanic eruptions throughout time.

3. Climate models that allegedly predict global warming are unreliable. If you input data from the past and try to get them to predict the present conditions, they're unable to do it accurately.

4. Similar to number 3, climate models can't even predict whether or not it will rain next week. Claiming that they can predict small changes in temperature decades in the future is ridiculous.

5. Global warming advocates say the temperatures are setting record highs in the past few years. But the temperatures have been much higher at some periods hundreds of years ago.

6. In the 1940s-1970s the world was actually cooling a bit, despite human pollution.

I'm still not convinced. I'm not convinced about the facts in some of these answers (like the answers to point 5) and not confident in the reasoning in some of them (like the answers to point 4). But I do appreciate the time that people put into some of these answers. Especially dana1981, Bob, Trevor, and Keith P. I'll let the voters pick a best answer.

Answer 1

They cant.

Answer 2

1. Natural sources of CO2 are balanced almost exactly by natural sinks. Anthropogenic CO2 is upsetting the natural balance. Prior to the industrial revolution, the level of CO2 in the air had been stable for 10,000 years at between 270 and 280 parts per million. In the last 200 years, CO2 has risen to 383 parts per million, and is increasing exponentially with no end in sight. We KNOW, by isotopic analysis, that this excess CO2 is due to the burning of fossil fuels, because it contains "old" carbon combined with "young" oxygen in levels that are exactly consistent with the amount of fossil fuel we have burned.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=87

2. Get your facts straight. Volcanic production of CO2 amounts to roughly 1% of human-caused CO2.
http://www.springerlink.com/content/631t022372116213/

3. Get your facts straight. Climate models that retrodict correctly have been around for years, and retrodiction is used routinely to asses the utility of the model.
http://maths.dur.ac.uk/stats/people/jcr/CCfinal.pdf

4. Weather is not climate. If you spend a year playing roulette in Vegas, I cannot predict whether you will win on the next spin. But I can predict that you will lose money during the course of the year. Climate scientists cannot predict the weather, but they can predict the climate. James Hansen of NASA accurately predicted the average temperature of today's earth back in the 1980's.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20070716/sc_livescience/globalwarminghowdoscientistsknowtheyrenotwrong;_ylt=As3okDu7Eyjkbc.ft0o4zufq188F

5. It's always possible to find temperature records that have not yet been broken. So what? The question is whether the average temperature is rising across the globe. It is. The current global average temperature is higher than it has been in at least 1000 years.
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Pub_Ch06.pdf

6. In the 1940's-70's, the world was cooling a bit BECAUSE OF human pollution. Raw coal and oil produce particulates and sulphur when burned, both of which make the atmosphere more opaque and prevent sunlight from reaching the surface. This cools the planet. After hundreds died in the London killer smogs of the early 1950's, air pollution laws were passed to clean up emissions. The result was, by the 1970's cleaner air and less cooling. This demonstrates that human beings can indeed influence the climate, and that government intervention can make a difference.

Answer 3

Nobody can be exactly wrong or right about global warming.

In my personal opinion, it's the earth's evolution that gets it into the vicous cycle of thinkening of the atmospheric layer. Some of the points you have stated here about causes of carbon dioxide due to natural courses, (I don't know about the termites....) are indeed also contributions to the thining of the protective layer, that traps the heat under that atmospheric layer.

Some also viewed this as butterfly effect of human acts (deforestation, more to name etc), thus speeding up the process, and indirectly causing the natural diseaster to happen.

What the global warming advocates are doing are slowing down the entire process of the 'end time'... To try to do something is better than sitting there doing nothing, just as close as the saying "Prevention is better than cure".

Whatever is believed and done by the advocates, is just to make the earth is a better place to live in, that's coming from good intentions.

But sadly, this issue has become an instrument of politics.

Answer 4

1. Never heard that and if termites would had that effect at least the cause would be targeted isn't it?
2. Thank God happens with big breaks - volcanic eruptions and as for the 1. the real emissions on carbon dioxide made by humans are enough to be undoubtedly cut with no room for excuses
3. Scientists are not Merlins and forecasts as with weather are improving with more technical means at their disposal . What we all need is to realize that giving them those means is preciously needed
4. Already answered

Answer 5

You are only taking information from one side of the puzzle. You are not reading the evidence that is overwhelming that global warming is happening and human cause is the major factor. I bet you are not even aware of many of the reasons caused from humans but here is a very interesting one you may take note of.
The raising of cattle for beef consumption causes more global warming than all of the cars exhaust on this planet. It starts with thousands of sq. miles of tropical rainforest being cut down and burned to raise much of the cattle. Then the amount of methane gas(a global warming gas) that is expelled by cattle. 100 million tons of methane gas a year is expelled by cattle just in the U.S. alone. The amount of water to raise these cattle is beyond belief also. It takes about 20 acres of land a year to supply the protein a person needs by eating beef and over 2500 gallons of water. For a vegetarian it takes 1 acre of land to supply the protein they need for one year and about 40 gallons of water. Stop eating beef and you will be doing more to stop global warming than many other opitions.

Answer 6

1) Yes, most of the carbon dioxide produced goes into the carbon cycle. However, the extra emissions created by humans are too much for the carbon cycle to absorb, thus more and more greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere, increasing global warming over time. You can see that in this graph:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide.png

Scientists have verified that the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations is due to humans by checking the isotopic ratios of the carbon.

2) This is a very incorrect statement. Volcanic activity emits roughly 1% the greenhouse gases that humans do annually.

"Man-made (anthropogenic) CO2 emissions overwhelm this [volcanic] estimate by at least 150 times"

http://www.gaspig.com/volcano.htm

3) Incorrect - climate models are very accurate over the past century for which we have the most accurate data:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Climate_Change_Attribution.png

4) Of course climate models can't predict whether it will rain next week. That's a short-term weather effect. Climate models predict long-term average global temperature changes. This is much easier than predicting short-term weather changes because the short-term changes average out over the long-term.

It's like predicting the stock market - nobody can tell you if it will go up or down next Tuesday, but you're pretty safe in assuming it will increase in the long-term.

5. Incorrect again. The average global temperature has not been this hot in thousands of years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png

6. Actually between 1940 and 1970 the cooling was partially BECAUSE OF human pollution. Volcanic and human aerosol emissions blocked sunlight which created a short-term global dimming which overwhelmed the greenhouse gas effect at the time.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Climate_Change_Attribution.png

When you don't believe scientific facts that are presented to you, that's called denial.

Answer 7

1.There is a natural "carbon cycle" that recycles CO2. But it's a delicate balance and we're messing it up.

Look at this graph.

http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/graphics_gallery/mauna_loa_record/mlo_record.html

The little squiggles are nature doing its' thing. CO2 falls a bit during summer when plants are active, and rises during the winter. The huge increase is us, burning fossil fuels. The scientists can actually show that the increased CO2 in the air comes from burning fossil fuels by using "isotopic ratios" to identify that CO2. The natural carbon cycle buried carbon in fossil fuels over a very long time, little bit by little bit. We dig them up and burn them, real fast. That's a problem.

2. No. Volcanoes don't put out 1% as much as Man.

http://www.geology.sdsu.edu/how_volcanoes_work/climate_effects.html

3. The models work quite well (if you include greenhouse gases).

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Climate_Change_Attribution.png

4. It's way easier to predict long term climate than short term weather.

5. Again, no.

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison_png

6. The model shown in 3 explains that too.

EDIT - I apologize for my previous language (which I edited out). Clearly the question was sincere. I'd just answered a bunch that weren't, but that's no excuse.

Answer 8

For those here who claim that the science they state proves AGW is fact, there are tens of thousands of scientists who can and have refuted it. Don't forget the emails that went around several years ago that showed how the "believers" were fudging the data to make their cause more effective. It is unfortunately mostly about politics and control. Don't get all panicky about it. Just do what you can do reduce pollution, just don't lose sleep over it.

Answer 9

I want sources!! Cite your sources. I need to see where you are getting your data. Is it from your next door neighbor or from actual scientists?

Answer 10

To answer all your points is going to take a little time, I'll go through each point you make one by one...

<< How do the people who believe in global warming respond to these specific criticisms? >>

Easily.


<< 1. The overwhelming majority of carbon dioxide is produced by natural sources, rather than humans... >>

It's not so much produced by natural sources but recycled by them in much the same way that rain doesn't produce more water just uses the water that's already there. There's a natural carbon cycle which sees an exchange of carbon dioxide between the oceans, soils and biomass. The oceans for example are continually absorbing CO2 but at the same time they're releasing it. Similaly plants absorb CO2 but release it when they die. It's the same CO2 going round and round in a cycle. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html and http://profend.com/global-warming/pages/causes.html#14

The CO2 produced by humans is not part of a natural cycle, if we were taking it out of the atmosphere in the first place, using it then rereleasing it then it would be natural but we're not doing this. Our industrial and other processes are producing new carbon dioxide which is over and above that of the natural carbon cycle.

<< ...Therefore it's unlikely that human made carbon dioxide is creating global warming... >>

For the reasons explained above, anthropogenic CO2 is not natural, it's increasing the atmospheric concentration of CO2 (along with the other greenhouse gases as well). One of the physical properties of greenhouse gases is that they interact with thermal radiation and trap it within our atmosphere, this leads to global warming and in turn to climate change. If this didn't happen there would be no global warming and the planet would be 33°C colder than it is. Natural global warming is vital to life on this planet and CO2 is one of the main contributors to natural global warming. Because we've substantially increased levels of CO2 (and all other greenhouse gases as well), there's now an element of unnatural global warming happening. http://profend.com/global-warming/pages/causes.html#13


<< Termites alone create more carbon dioxide than humans. >>

I'm not sure where you got this information from but it's very wrong. An average termite weighs just 0.00355 grams, the average human produces 4461kg of CO2 emissions per year - if each termite produced theior own mass of CO2 it would require 8 quadrillion termites to produce the same CO2 emissions as humans. That would be enough termites to stretch to the moon and back more than 100,000 times. http://www.fcla.edu/FlaEnt/fe85p499.pdf


<< 2. Similar to number 1, a single volcanic eruption releases several times more carbon dioxide than humans release in an entire year. But the world has survived countless volcanic eruptions throughout time. >>

This is a myth that some global warming skeptics use in an attempt to get people to beleive that anthropogenic global warming is not happening. In reality, humans put 150 times the amount of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere each year than do all the volcanoes on Earth . http://volcano.und.edu/vwdocs/Gases/man.html


<< 3. Climate models that allegedly predict global warming are unreliable. If you input data from the past and try to get them to predict the present conditions, they're unable to do it accurately. >>

I work with climate models and on many occasions have tested old models with new data and compared historical predictions with actual observations. There is a high degree of accuracy, probably in the order of 80%. In the last ten years or so there have been huge improvements made in modelling techniques and more recent models are proving to have a reliability upwards of 90%. There will always be an element of uncertainty involved with climate predictions because many variables have to be inputted into the models; human and natural effects can influence these variables in unforeseen ways.

Where the models have been extremely accurate is in predicting trends. For example, input old or new data, predicted or observed into an old or new model and they always predict the world will warm up - there's variability in the amount of warming but the underlying trend is consistent.


<< 4. Similar to number 3, climate models can't even predict whether or not it will rain next week. Claiming that they can predict small changes in temperature decades in the future is ridiculous. >>

You're confusing climate with weather. Weather is what we experience everyday, it’s short term and localised. Climate is long term and on a worldwide scale. Weather forecasters don't attempt to predict what the weather will be like this time next year or decades into the future, climatologists don't attempt to predict wether it will rain next week or not. What you're doing is similar to stating that a dentist is unable to remedy your sore throat and that your doctor is unable to fix your teeth. They both deal with the human body but in very different ways.


<< 5. Global warming advocates say the temperatures are setting record highs in the past few years. But the temperatures have been much higher at some periods hundreds of years ago. >>

Again this is a misconception. You'll often hear people claiming that during the Medieval Warm Period it was warmer than it is today, this is untrue. Here's a graph based on ten different data sets http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison_png all of which show it is warmer now than during the MWP. The last time temperatures were higher than they are now was some 140,000 years ago at a time when we would have expected to see unusually high temperatures due to the natural cycles that the planet goes through.


<< 6. In the 1940s-1970s the world was actually cooling a bit, despite human pollution. >>

It was due to human pollution that the world was cooling. One of the main pollutants given off from power stations and industrial practices was sulphur dioxide. This is a 'reflective' molecule that reflects solar radiation (sunlight) back into space. The levels of pollution were such that they created a thick blanket which blocked out sunlight. In 1952 things reached a head when a dense cloud of fog and pollution settled over London killing thousands of people per day. The result was that the UK government passed Clean Air Acts and in the years that followed other governments around the world passed similar acts. The result being that pollution levels fell and the sunlight was once again able to penetrate our atmosphere.

Answer 11

Yeah none of that is real and I will cite my source Al Gore and Michael Moore...get the sarcasm lol