Weather forecasting & global warming.?

Question

Why do different weather channels disagree so much. The difference in temperatures each day can vary by 10c.
Weather is worked out by scientific data. If they can get it so wrong some days why should we believe the data on global warming. If their calculations vary to that extent how can they make a valued judgement.

My question wasn't based on logic it was based on scientific data being flawed. The BBC get their weather from the Met Office but often the difference in each forecast is huge. Could it be based on guess work and if so could it not be the same equasion for global warming.

Yes, I believe you about Northern Ohio. I was caught in a blizzard in Alberta in June 2000 and also on the edge of Glacier National Park, Montana, in mid June. It sort of concentrates the mind.

Answer 1

Actually weather forecasting is much harder than climate forecasting. Climate, by definition, is weather over a long period, like ten years or more. Weather is day to day, hour to hour.

Thus climate is the result of an accumulation of weather effects. Whereas, weather is a single short-term effect; it is a single data point in the grand picture we call climate.

Therefore, climate is weather on average...the average of all the weather data. So when the BBC weather guessers get the temperature wrong because they guessed too low, sometime later they are likely to get the temperature wrong because they guessed too high. But over time, the too highs and the too lows will cancel out and give us an average...the climate temperature.

What we are seeing in global warming is that the average temperature (over time and over the planet) is rising...the globe is warming on average. So even though there might be variance in the day to day weather, there is a steady rise (a trend) in the average temperature. And because the average is so steady, it's a lot easier to forecast than the day to day weather events.

Answer 2

Your logic is flawed. I cannot accurately predict the day you are going to die, but think about it, does that mean I am wrong in stating catagorically that you will be dead 200 years from now?

Climate trends are EASY to predict (summer will be hotter than winter), but localized conditions are very difficult to predict with any great accuracy. Hence the weather forecasters can tell you that in your city tomorrow, the temperature will be between 75 &78 degrees by noon, but that's as close as they can come. Short-term weather is a "chaotic" system...

Answer 3

Global warming is a scan to raise prices and tax. 100 years ago do u believe that the thermometer was accurate??? It possible was accurate to + or - 3 deg.F. The possible error is far greater than the error they are looking for. To make precise measurements your equipment should have an accuracy of 10 tomes what u are looking for.

Answer 4

Come to northern Ohio in the winter. There is no global warming. It's cold as you know what.