So, when fossil fuels finally dry up and we move to 100% Ethanol, do you believe that fuel prices will drop?

Question

I believe that the conversion to Ethanol is an inevitability and a fantastic source of energy. Of course the oil giants don't agree, because it'll hit them where it hurts most. But when it does happen, will fuel prices be reasonable for the era? I mean really, will we suddenly have a shortage of corn?

Ton of great answers, this one's going to "Vote".

Answer 1

It appears to be impossible to supply all of our transportation needs with ethanol or any other biomass based fuel alone. However a combination of electricity and biofuels are feasible.

I think the most likely future for transportation is a gradual decline in the use of fossil fuels, which might be entirely phased out as soon as about 2050. There will also be a gradual increase in the use of biofuels lead primarily by alcohols; ethanol is not the only viable alcohol fuel. Research is also being done on butanol.

I expect the use of bio-fuels to peak sometime after 2050 and then start to decline in popularity. The cost of liquid fuels for transportation are likely to rise from now until the time that their use begins to decline, which might happen sometime between 2050 and 2100.

Hybrid electric cars will become dominant by 2020 and that is the technology that will enable biofuels to support our transportation needs. Actually most of our transportation requirements will be supplied by electricity with the liquid fuels making up for those times where long-distance travel is required. During this time battery technology will continue to improve and at some point will become so good that most passenger cars will become fully electric and therefore will stop using liquid fuels entirely.

As transportation shifts from hybrid to full electric the demand for liquid fuels will first level off and then start to fall. That is when fuel prices will finally start to drop. That price drop may slow the transition from hybrid to full electric, but as battery prices also fall the high efficiency of electric cars will continue to drive the economics.

Another factor that will play out is the transition from fossil fuel based electrical generation to solar-based electrical generation. At first electrical prices will rise even faster than they have recently as natural gas production peaks and supplies tighten. That rising cost will drive the solar energy to expand extremely rapidly, it is already one of the fastest growing sectors now, and that will accelerate.

As technology breakthroughs become incorporated into shipping product the cost of solar electricity will fall rapidly and will eventually become very inexpensive. Distributed solar installations will become ubiquitous and will actually begin to depress demand for grid power. At this point electrical energy will become by far the cheapest form of energy and that combined with cheap and powerful batteries will consolidate the electric car as the transportation technology of choice.

Transportation costs in the post internal-combustion era will be very low compared to today. That scenario will take at least 50 years to achieve though and in the interim transportation costs will be very high.

Answer 2

Probably not. Ethanol is a temporary crutch for oil production shortages. When the fossil fuels are gone, if ethanol is still in use, prices will skyrocket.

Currently the US can't produce enough ethanol to eliminate gasoline completely, and until someone finds a way to make it from something other that a grain used for food, it will never be cost effective.

Answer 3

We know of more oil resources now than in the 80s, so I doubt that will happen anytime soon. The only reason ethanol is less expensive right now is called GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES. You don't see the cost, but your gasoline taxes are being paid to gasoline companies to keep the price of gasohol lower (about 5cents per gallon with E10 and 42.5 cents per gallon with E85). But don't forget it takes 3% more E10 to do the same job as E0.

We already use 20% of the US produced corn for ethanol production. Congress is calling for that to be multiplied by 7 (doubling it will occur later this year). By my calculations that is 140% of the US production, so I guess our farms better start doubling production of corn.

Please buy an E85 vehicle and fill it up with only E85. That way my gasoline I buy can be E0 (because there is only so much ethanol), and the price of it may go down since the demand for it will be lower. PLEASE.

Finally, the oil companies (except Exxon) are investing in ethanol, and they are still the ones you will buy it from in the end. So they'll make money either way, why do you think BP has so many ads saying "beyond petroleum."

Answer 4

Great Question! Ethanol prices will go down (compared to oil) as the oil runs out the price will raise, BUT...I hope you don't mind paying like $10-$30 for you meat , and $5 for a bag a popcorn. b/c with more space going for corn production, farmers will not be overly enthusiastic to allow a field rest, or alternate crops, and with corn costing over $4/bushel.... the more it costs to feed livestock, produce popping corn, and oh yeah, feed us.

I was watching a BBC newscast that explained the ethanol/food production (I don't remember numbers, but it was not good). We'll starve people, and cause the poverty gap to widen. Not only will the poor not be able to afford healthy food, they won't be able to buy ethanol....

I live in Iowa, and it's like we won't even think about the long term consequences of our new "savior" corn prices are up! farmers are happy... just wait.

Answer 5

fuel prices might drop but i wonder if food prices will go up as more and more farmers choose to grow corn. agree that ethanol is a fantastic source of fuel and look forward to it or anything else that can put a strangle hold on the oil producing countries that are so bent on destroying us.

Answer 6

I hate to burst your bubble, rain on your parade, or in spite of...yet recent examine exhibits that oil isn't a sole fossil gasoline as became as quickly as theory. Scientists say they stumbled on that oil is continuously being created. i became born and raised in an area the place there are oil fields. approximately 40 years in the past the oil wells have been close down and the fields have been declared dry. Now, this year, oil has been stumbled on in such severely great quantities in those comparable wells that businesses are establishing up those oil fields back. Estimates are the production must be as great as a million.5M barrels in step with year. The oil industry on no account produces the optimal ability for particularly some reasons. via the way, in case you recognize lots approximately fossil fuels you will have regular that petrol is gas.

Answer 7

No, they will increasse. Ethanol is actually more expensive than petroleum. The only reason you don't see this is the fact that there is a federal tax subsidy on fuel ethanol. This will not last if ethanol becomes the dominant fuel source.

Answer 8

Right now ethanol costs more than gasoline, so fuel prices will not drop.

And don't worry about the oil companies, they will probably learn to distill ethanol.

Answer 9

no we'll switch to hydrogen!

it's cheap to make, after all,

e85 emits more greenhouse gases from making it than regular gasoline ever would from just running it, and you get less gas mileage, so there is no point in it

plus the only way hydrogen costs will go up is from inflation, not a shortage or anything

BTW gas stations will make hydrogen on site, and it wont have to be taken and refined from another place,

also hydrogen isn't going to explode like an atomic bomb in an accident, because while using hydrogen fuel you don't split any atoms. and when gasoline powered cars were introduced, people thought that was a crazy idea because of how combustible it is. (just look at the ford pinto)

Answer 10

We will go to butanol, not ethanol. It is a much better fuel than ethanol.

And the price of fuel depends on how much can be made.