Evolution statistically unlikely???

Question

I have heard this argument over and over that statistically speaking, evolution is very unlikely. I asked a question about evolution and some guy claimed he had even worked out the math himself and said it was basically impossible. Alright creationists, I want you to give me a specific mathematical equation that proves that evolution is statistically impossible. Don't just say it. I want specific math. That means numbers for those of you who are not familiar with mathematics.

Answer 1

youve already had mathematicians and evolutionists prove it to you... now why are you asking creationists to do it for you? It isnt going to be any different of an answer

Answer 2

My area of research is "rare events," in dynamic systems. The problem with most peoples' conceptualization of rare events is that they happen quite often. The reason is the poor conceptualization we provide undergraduates, and to some extent graduate students on statistics.

In dynamic conserving systems, it is not the Gaussian or "normal," distribution which is applicable, but rather the Cauchy distribution. Events which should not occur even once in the life of the universe under a normal distribution are quite common under a Cauchy distribution. The problem is a Newtonian and static view of the world. It views statistics as algebraic structures where you plug data in and get answers out rather than as dynamic problems where the system's state alters potential future system states.

Hysteresis is an example. If you crumble a piece of paper up, even if you iron it, you can never get it back to the exact state it was in before it was crumbled. Once a system is changed, you cannot go back. Evolution is not only possible, it happened. It seems unlikely because people do not have an appreciation for the sheer size of the universe or the size of the potential for population.

There are seven billion people on the planet right now. One in one billion events are not that rare, nor are one in seven billion events.

Answer 3

I think Evolution and Creation go hand in hand. According to the bible, one day is equal to 1000 years and 1000 years is equal to a day. So if God created the Earth in 6 days, and rested, that would mean that he created the earth in 6,000 years. This may be the argument some Christians will give you. I say that that verse only shows that there is no time in heaven and it does not matter how long it took God to create the universe. If God wanted to create a universe, in a wink of an eye, he could, but maybe universes or planets take longer to be more perfect. I have 6 college credits in Anthropology and I had two Catholic Nuns in my first class. They also agreed that creation and evolution can go hand in hand. The time it took is not important. From science we find that carbon dating and other methods of dating minerals found with bones show that man was walking upright a million 10 million years ago. So God created it when and it evolved? Who cares, he did it and that is all that is important. Man sure didn't make it nor animals, So only three other possibilities, God , his Son, or Angels.
Rev. TomCat

Answer 4

I'll take the other side, and show you that evolution is an absolute.

the stuff that creates life was the slosh covering this planet, and the elements of the periodic table. The ability to make amino acids of it was proved by Harold Urey( googe him and the Mars Jars) decades ago. Given all these chemicals, and all these aeons, and all these molecules and all the lightening, the combination of molecules that might finally reproduce (divide) it only had to happen once.... just once. With billions of years, and hundreds of billions of molecules and hundreds of billions of lightening strikes, even if the odds were billions to one, that results in a certainly.... simple math.

Answer 5

We were also told that it was impossible for humans to fly.

Every new theory or idea is always debunked by the skeptical, the superstitious, and the ignorant.

A lot of things are beyond our mind's comprehension:

How could complex organisms evolve seemingly at random and by chance?

How can space go on forever, and if it ends, what lies beyond?

How is it any easier to believe that an omnipotent being created all things?

Answer 6

Remember that Creationists base their spoutings on the 'hurricane in a scrapyard assembling a 747' model. This is, of course, not at all how evolution works. The true picture is many order of magnitude more likely - which is why it happens.

CD

Answer 7

Actually evolution, once abiogenisis happens, is a matter of absolute mathematical certainty. In engineering, you run test simulations to design (for example) airplane wings based entirely on the theory evolution -- you make small changes and keep the changes that hold up in a wind tunnel.

Abiogenisis's probability depends on unknown variables -- such as, for example, the number of planets capable of producing life. But, given only a handful of such planets, you can run computer simulations on chemistry and extrapolate that the probability of abiogenesis is very high.

I don't have it with me, but I've seen peer-reviewed data on this. Abiogenesis is statistically likely, and after that happens, evolution is inevitable.

Answer 8

pastorart1974, if you're a math major, they must not teach logic to math majors. You're assuming that the rate at which the earth's orbit is decreasing has been constant. You have no evidence of that. What we do have evidence of is that our planet is billions of years old.

To answer the main question, there is no equation, it's just a bunch of creationists blowing smoke.

Answer 9

I'm not a creationist, but I'd like to point out that most of those models assume we live in a "normal" or "Gaussian" world, which is not entirely true.

Additionally, the impact of highly unlikely events are essentially what drives our world.


I'd also like to point out that you seem to be talking about the "origin of life", which is not what evolution addresses.

Answer 10

Are you talking about origin of the universe or origin of life? they are two different things you know! Evolution discusses minor one cellular being adapting and mutating in to what we are today and Big Bang discusses Origin of the Universe and how the Universe came to be..... Note Earth and our solar system did not originate at the Big Bang singularity our solar system came to be much after Big Bang!

Answer 11

Well, look at it like this: You have two arguments

1. Humans came from years of genetic evolution through natural selection, with scientific evidence to back it up.

2. An invisible man in the sky made humans out of dirt 6000 years ago, with no evedince.

Which one do you think makes more sense?