Game-show riddle, first right answer gets points!?

Question

Ok, you are on the final round of a popular TV game show.
The host stands in front of three doors.
Behind one is a brand-new, luxury estate car, behind the other two are b00by prizes (dead mackerel).

[1]_____[2]_____[3]


Now, he asks you to pick a door


[1]_____[2]_____[3]
/\


He then opens one of the others to reveal; = a mackerel.


[1]_____[@<]_____[3]
/\

Now do you switch or stay with your choice? Or does it matter?
(You have no way of finding out and you carn't ask etc.)



First correct answer with explanation gets the points.

Star and I might do some more :).

Nice try severe but no.

Ok the answer is:




Wait for it,




When you first picked which door you had a; 1 in 3 (33%) chance of picking the car (3 doors 1 car) and a 2 in 3 chance of a fish (66%).
So when you picked the door you are more likely to have a fish, (twice as likely.)

Switching means you have double the chances of getting the car in the end.
Because you are more likly to have a fish to start with and you know that one of the fish has gone.

Answer 1

You should ALWAYS SWITCH. The reason is mathematical. when you pick the first door, you have a 33.3% chance of there being the car behind it. Now he picks one of the doors. But he knows where the car is. So he picks one of the two remaining doors. he will pick the one WITHOUT the car behind it. Sure, you could have the car behind the door that you first picked. But remember, there's only a 33.3% chance you have. However, the odds are increased with the box he's offering you to switch too. Confusing, I know. But i also know, IM RIGHT!

Imagine doing it with 100 doors. you choose a door, and then he opens all the other doors (all mackerel!) apart from number 27. would you switch or stay? SWITCH obviously! same rules apply with 3 doors, its just that this piece of logic is easily overlooked.

Answer 2

you stay with your choice, as it doesnt make a difference.
before, the change of getting the luxury car was 1/3.
Now that there are only 2 doors left, its 1/2. Its a 50/50 chance. There is no difference. Same if there were 3 matches, and one of them was longest. If there were 3 ppl and each one had to pull it, each had the same chance.
the first one can pull it, hence 1/3.
The second guy can pull it, which is 1/2, but there is also the chance that it has already been pulled, which is 1/3. Hence his chance is 2/6 (when u multiply the 2 chances) which is the same as 1/3.
The third guy has the chance that it has already been pulled which is 2/3, and he has the chance of it still being there, which is 1/2 (as it has been pulled twice). You mutiply them and you get 2/6 again, or 1/3. Hence the chance is always the same. (Just a similar riddle because I felt like it :P)
x

Answer 3

It makes no difference - it is *neither* for or against your interest. After the goat is revealed, you then have a 50% chance regardless whether you stick with your first pick, or switch to the other remaining door. The confusion here is about the meaning of "a priori" and "a posteriori" probabilities. Whichever door you picked in the beginning, you had a 1/3 chance (a priori probability). However that chance immediately went up to 1/2 when one goat was revealed (a posteriori probability). (Conversely if they revealed the position of the car to be behind another door, the a posteriori probability of your first guess would then be 0. But you would of course switch it, in that scenario.) The key point here is that the probability of your choice winning goes up from 1/3 to 1/2 when one of the losing choices is eliminated, regardless what you do or don't do (ok obviously we exclude you picking the known goat). (Discounting purely silly answers like "the goats and car can move", or "the goat might be very obese and standing in front of the car, but occupying a different door" (Jabba the Goat scenario) :) )

Answer 4

I would stay with my decision.
My odds of choosing correctly were originally 1 in 3. Now they are 1 in 2, and won't change if I change my door choice.
Might as well go with the gut when handed a 50/50 chance..
But all in all, either choice gets the contestant the same odds now.

Answer 5

Stay with door number 1.

Why?

Because in the paragraph of your riddle, you stated: "Behind one is a brand-new, luxury estate car, behind the other two are b00by prizes (dead mackerel).

=)

Answer 6

I agree with the severe clear, he has got it spot on. I would stay because we know what are behing the other two!!!!!

I starred you aswell

Answer 7

think I'll stay with door no. 1

Answer 8

LETS MAKE A DEAL HOST MONTY HALL

Answer 9

switch....i dunno.....i think its easier to buy the car than go through this...; (

Answer 10

you've give me a headache lol