Do you think that if Madeleine hadn't been left alone, her chances of abduction would've been greatly reduced?

Question

Child abductions are extremely rare; in fact it is more likely that your child would die in road traffic accidents or fire-related deaths. The chance of your child being abducted (not missing) is one in 100 million a year. 17,000 children under five years old in England are admitted to hospital each year due to illnesses caused by their parents smoking.

Gerry McCann has been trained for 20 to calculate risks; he would calculate your risk of an adverse event. He would tell you that you have 7% or so chance of dying of heart attack or stroke in the next ten years, and you need so and so to reduce your risk. Why then do you think he underestimated the risk of leaving Madeleine- his flesh and blood- alone that terrible night?

Rants are not welcomed, Reasoned answers please.


Thank you,

Answer 1

think he is clever in one way as in a qualified doctor but stupid in another way ,ie common sense, that kid would be safe and sound at home if they had taken care of her ,no one leaves kids on their own like that

Answer 2

The problem with answering this question is that we are not sure WHAT exactly happened - if she was actually abducted from the apartment (a theory which is not supported by proof or evidence), then yes the risk factor of actual abduction would be minescule, and even smaller if the parents had been there.... although the risk factors of other tradegies and accidents (head injuries, electrocution, falls, scalding etc) would be quite high for children of this age left alone, and would get higher with each time that the children were left due to the laws of probability. In fact it is the fact that statistical likelihood of Madeleine being stolen from the apartment is SO very small that makes it an extremely unlikely thing to have actually happened!

However, if she left the apartment and was wandering the streets lost and alone then the risk factor of abduction rises - (although still not as high as the media would have us believe), as does the risk of road traffic and other accidents. However, the likelihood that she would have left the apartment in the first place if her parents had been present is probably nil.

My own feeling is that Gerry didn't calculate risks at all - he did what he wanted to do without giving it any thought. He comes across as a very arrogant man (not unusual in my experience of hospital consultants) and it possibly does not cross his mind that anyone or anything would dare to interfere with the smooth running of his life and desires, including something as commonplace as one of his children daring to wake up when he wasn't there.

Answer 3

There is no excuse for it, I heard a comment the other day that made me very surprised.... The sister of one of the parents was on the news saying that people shouldn't judge the family for leaving their children as "the children were the most important things in the world to them".... umm... this is surely a complete contradiction of a statement, it was obvious to me that their pizza and chips and a nice "hassle free" night without their kids was FAR more important to them! Why weren't their kids with them?? Why were they left alone, without a babysitter? Why? There is no excuse that they were 'nearby' or that they were 'checking every half an hour' as they are meant to be looking after the kids but that is not possible if you aren't in the same building! If this had been in England, say the example was changed into someone from a less affluent background, then there would be an uproar.... Imagine a family leaves their kids in a top floor flat and pops next door to the pub for some Sunday lunch - leaving 3 infants sleeping. One wakes up, drinks some bleach and dies. Now surely that is neglect? I do wholly feel sorry for the parents, they made a mistake, and its the worst ever way to learn a lesson from your mistake, they shouldn't have to go through this pain and I really do hope that they have their daughter returned to them safely and at this moment in time are left to put all their energy into finding her and staying strong. I just think they should hold their hands up and admit they were wrong to leave the kids alone, and stop pretending that it was okay - cos its not. Ever.

Answer 4

There is absolutely no chance of Madeleine being abducted if she had been accompanied by an adult or adults.

That's if she has been abducted at all.

No chance of her wandering. No chance of her waking up to an empty room.

It wasn't just one night she was left alone. Reports have it she was left alone every night - and many people who've been to the Ocean Club maintain it is the norm for people who stay there to dine alone after 'high tea' which is what they have for the children at about 5.30.

But practically everyone else makes use of the child minders. The McCann's used 'strangers' during the day - in the creche, where they were leaving the twins even after Madeleine disappeared. But they decided not to use a 'stranger' to mind her while she slept - if that explanation can be believed. I don't know of it can - there's so much defensiveness about that night now, so many different versions of what they did that night, it's hard to know what's self-protection on the McCann's part and what's the truth or what's both.

The whole thing now looks as if it's not going to be resolved at all. The longer this goes on and each day passes, there's less chance of any answer even to the simplest question, never mind Madeleine being found.

Gerry being in London to interview a campaign manager - "What in your previous work experience do you think makes you suitable for this post?" - is just the most bizarre thing I've ever heard.

Him having his wallet stolen is loading weirdness on weirdness. You'd almost expect him to be charged with Jill Dando's murder next.

Answer 5

Yes I think the chances would be reduced by about 100%. If the parents had been there, the doors would have been closed and locked, a grown up presence would have probably scared off an intruder especially if both parents were there.

I am really not sure why they thought it would be ok to leave their small children unattended at night in an unlocked apartment, but it has the hallmark signs of it not being the first time they did it.

At the end of the day we don't actually know what has happened to Madeleine McCann, but I believe she would still be here if her parents had not left her unattended.

Answer 6

Of course her chances of being abducted would have been reduced - and even more so if she had not been left alone every night so anyone intent on abducting a child could see a pattern unfolding and know they could act. Had the parents not been so selfish each night, she would still be with them and we would be spared the Gerry and Kate show. The reason that they underestimated the risk comes from his own words - he thinks they did nothing wrong, that it was no different to them being in the garden and that thousands of other people would have done the same - if a so called intelligent person cannot see the inherent dangers in leaving children of that age alone (not just abduction, but fire, cot death, wandering out into the pool, carbon monoxide poisoning etc) then he was not going to take the simple steps (use the baby sitting service or take it in turns to look after the kids) that would have prevented the risk. Basically he displayed in his negligence in looking after his children the same arrogance he now displays in promoting the campaign.

Answer 7

Well the problem is, was Maddy ever abducted? There has been no proof to back this claim up and they always say the last person to admit to seeing someone alive is your first suspect. In answer I honestly don`t know. If the Mc Canns version of events is true then yes Maddy would not be missing now. But there are so many claims and counterclaims from the McCanns, added to their lack of emotion, that you doubt the integrity of them.

Rufus you sound surprisingly like a doubter yourself. What happened to all your self righteous talk. In case you hadn`t noticed the doubters know we are looking at this event through the prism of the media. That is what we are so concened about. The media are not reporting the story that is really there. We aren`t worried about the next event just now, we are having enough trouble getting the salient points regarding this dissapearance into the public eye because the media is more interested in pandering to Mr and Mrs Mc Cann than in finding Maddie.

Answer 8

Yes if the parents had been doing their job probably she would have been safe. I still can't understand how they were so stupid to do that in the first place. That is a sign of bad parenting when they left her and the twins alone in the first place. Something doesn't seem right. I can't help thinking they know more then they let on. After all they don't give me the impression they are grieving parents or parents at a loss. They don't seem to be doing much themselves to help the situation and all the lies, twists and turns in their story keeps changing. If they had been honest from the start they might have known something by now. I agree with your question in full.

Answer 9

I think that if she was with someone (like the babysitter the holiday place provides) then it is highly unlikely she would have been abducted. It would be hard for an abducter to get in and take here with a sitter in the first room of the apartment. They would hear something.

Personally I think that if they had just left her, she wouldn't have been, either, because no - one would have known she was there . But their going backwards and forwards every half hour to check on her meant someone knew she was there, and knew when her parents wouldn't be.

Answer 10

You've heard Gerry talk. You've read his blog. Can you remember ever meeting anyone so cold, callous and creepy?
That blog is icy, the words Gerry uses he could be talking about tins of beans, not his child, for all the compassion he issues.
This is a very easy question to answer. If Gerry had not been so insouciant, lazy and dogmatically arrogant and taken the kids with them, or placed them in care with a babysitter like caring parents do Maddy would still be with them.
All this post-"abduction"(?) circus is purely for Gerry's benefit to belatedly save his reputation and career, but it's backfired on him and he will be seen as the pariah he is when and if Maddy is found, be she be dead or alive.
You know, you can knock Bryan Adams but I tell you, I went to the Maddy site and listened to Everything I Do and that little video clip and it is actually very moving. It's the only thing on that site that makes me upset and feel for that kid because "Now accepting Paypal" certainly doesn't.

Answer 11

I'm sure the McCanns are well aware of the fact that had they have been there, their daughter would still be with them now, no amount of discussion will make any difference to that. All I know is that if the McCann parents were not nice, attractive, middle class doctors, then the fact that they had left their children alone would've been made out as a much more negligent act of parenting. Our press is ridiculous. Imagine the headlines if the McCanns had been a stereotypical working class family but the situation had been exactly the same. They would've been demonised beyond belief.