Can anyone prove CONCLUSIVELY that global warming is caused by humanity, specifically Americans?

Question

I've been hearing and reading so much about global warming lately, specifically that carbon dioxide emissions are to blame, and since America puts out a good amount, they're to blame. Now, I've seen Al Gore's little slide show and I don't believe it--there are too many 'what-ifs' through it. And I've seen the pics of the polar bears, even though I saw them before with a different caption. Most of all, though, I've seen the explanation of global warming--Carbon dioxide levels through industry are rising, and the summers are getting hotter and hotter. Therefore, carbon dioxide emissions must be responsible for global warming. Being a man who understands scientific method, there's something missing--you have to prove the theory through experimentation, not consensus and conjecture. So here's your chance! Prove to me that global warming is caused by carbon dioxide and American industry...or call me an idiot when you can't come up with an answer that fits your beliefs.

Answer 1

Let's tap on the brakes a little. You said, "America puts out a good amount [of CO2]." Break it down.

As jim z pointed out, water vapor accounts for the greatest amount of the Greenhouse effect - approximately 90%. Some people say 95%, but let's be conservative. Carbon dioxide is second in overall effect, so let's just say a little less than 10% to be generous. Of this 10%, decomposition of organic matter accounts for 10 times more CO2 emissions than man's burning of carbon fuels, concrete production, etc. We won't count the significant amount of CO2 dissolved in the oceans that is released as temperature rises (undisputed Henry's law) even though it is potentially larger than man's contributions (If anyone would like to dispute the magnitude of CO2 in the oceans, need I remind you that phytoplankton produce ~75% of the Earth's O2 through photosynthesis. They not only need an equal volume of CO2 to produce this, a concentration gradient must also be maintained in order to keep this delicate biological process operating efficiently.)

Back to the percentages, if we toss out CO2 emitted from the oceans , and what the heck we'll toss in volcanoes, too, that means that man's total contribution to the greenhouse effect is less than 1%. Take into account that burning carbon fuels is only part of this, and that some fuel burning is a necessary evil of civilization, then that leaves us with a small fraction of a percent. Globally. Even smaller if you take the US portion. Hardly "good".

We're not finished though. The Greenhouse effect is only a small portion of the total global heat picture. The GE accounts for 20-30 degrees of global temperature. No one is sure exactly how much. No precise calculations to arrive at this. The fudge factor of 10 degrees is 5-10 times the claimed temperature rise over the last century.

You be the judge. Does this sound like an open and shut case for man-made CO2 being the PRIMARY cause of global warming? If this were a trial, would you vote "GUILTY" beyond a shadow of a doubt?

Despite all this, I am not saying that man-made CO2 is not a concern. I believe that we have a tremendous over-reliance on fossil fuels and this produces an excessive burden on the environment. I just can't find it guilty in this alleged "crime" called Global Warming.

Answer 2

From here: http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2007/03/global-warming-truth-revealed.html

Here’s a short summary of what’s happening in the atmosphere. Carbon Dioxide molecules have 3 atoms: 1 carbon, 2 oxygen. This makes it a greenhouse gas. Gases with 3 molecules or more are greenhouse gases. Why do they have to have 3 atoms, you ask? 3 atoms make them just big enough to block stop radiation from leaving the atmosphere. To explain this, you need to know about the greenhouse effect.

Energy from the sun travels to Earth as electromagnetic waves. It first encounters the atmosphere. Some infrared radiation and most ultraviolet radiation are reflected by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Some of the rays are reflected by clouds, gases, or dust particles. The energy that gets past the atmosphere next encounters Earth’s surface. Some of it is reflected back into the atmosphere, while the rest is absorbed. When the surface is heated, it radiates some of the energy back into the atmosphere as infrared radiation. This radiation cannot escape back into space. Instead, much of it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. These gases, such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane make life on Earth possible through this effect. This process by which gases hold heat in the air is called the greenhouse effect.

Answer 3

Carbon dioxide is just one of the many grenhouse gases that cause global warming, the other two primary GHGs are nitrous oxide and methane.

America is the largest contributor of GHG's overall but it's not only the US that's to blame - each country and each individual that emits greenhouse gases is a contributor.

There is conclusive proof that GHGs cause global warming, wether people accept it or not is a different matter. It was back in 1896 that the proof was first established when Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius established the link between carbon dioxide emissions (called carbonic acid back in those days), the greenhouse effect and global warming.

Since that time we've had over 100 years in which to conduct research and establish exactly what contribution the different gases make, what concentrations they exist in and to delve deep into the complex workings of global warming.

It's not difficult to demonstrate the greenhouse effect and I've done this myself several times using equipment found in a standard university science lab.

The greenhouse effect is something that occurs naturally, without which our planet would have no heat retaining capacity and would have a climate more akin to that found on the moon - so cold and harsh that life would never have evolved.

The cause of the greenhouse effect is a simple physical property of radiation. The heat we receive from the sun is solar radiation which has a very short wavelength and can pass unimpeded through our atmosphere. This heat energy is absorbed into surfaces (mainly the ground but also buildings, blacktop, metal, glass - anything in fact). When the ambient temperature falls these surfaces radiate heat outwards and this is in the form of thermal radiation (heat). This has a longer wavelength than solar radiation (light) and the large molecules of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere impede it's escape into space. The more of these greenhouse gas molecules there are the more thermal radiation becomes trapped within our atmosphere.

Answer 4

You are correct that the fact that

1) CO2 emissions and atmospheric concentrations are increasing and

2) Global warming is happening

Does not prove causation, it merely shows correlation. However, that's not the only evidence that humans are the primary cause of global warming. People above me have provided many links containing this evidence. I would suggest that you read the IPCC report Summary for Policymakers, which is just 18 pages long and contains a summary of the best science done on the subject with lots of nice charts and graphs:

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html

The easiest explanation is to say that climatologists have created models which factor in various contributors to the global climate and have used these models to determine what's causing the current global warming. Here's a nice graph of one such model, broken down by contributing components:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Climate_Change_Attribution.png

Of course the science that went into calculating each of those contributions is quite complicated, but it's pretty easy to see from that plot that greenhouse gases have been the primary cause over the past few decades.

Answer 5

There are two mistakes in your question: first, you're simplifying the problem/solution, and second, you mention proving a theory through experimentation. There are many factors that affect climate change, carbon dioxide emissions being one of them. By reducing these emissions, we may be able to slow down climate change. Does anyone know for certain if this will work? No, but the odds are, it will. This brings me to the second point. As "a man who understands scientific method", you should already know that it is impossible to "prove" anything 100%. What science does is generate theories and offer evidence to support or refute them; the more evidence in favor of a theory, the more generally accepted it is. However, science does not prove a theory true, nor can it. As far as climate change is concerned, there is abundant evidence in support of our industrial lifestyle being a major contributor. That should be enough for everyone to take steps to shrink their global footprint.

Answer 6

The bottom line of the argument is that is that if the problem is caused by humanity, and we don't stop it, global warming could end life on this planet. There's no dollar amount for that.

If global warming isn't caused by humanity, then we still have a better world. We can start new industry with new high paying jobs, here where we live, and the air will be cleaner and we'll have less dependence on foreign supply.

Answer 7

Hey, when I was a kid they made it sound like the world would be gone long before the year 2000, yet here we are. There is always going to be carbon dioxide and metanes, etc. on the planet, even without automobiles and mans desire for machines. Its part of life. Not to mention that the planet is aging. Some people need a cause to justify them preaching, and they don't always look for all of the supporting facts. Some people make a lot of money talking about this subject, jet have no evidence to back up what they say.

Sure the ice caps melt. That's nothing new. I don't think its because someone is driving around in an old Buick poluting the air. This planet has been evolving and continues to evolve, inspite of or despite human interference.

They took away our hairspray when I was a kid and came out with some non aerosol version to keep from destroying the ozone layer. Hairspray did it?

With your scientific background you sound like Grissim from CSI with his experimentation to prove or disprove theories. That's the only way to prove it!!

Answer 8

i think too much time is being spent on laying blame and setting up stupid schemes like carbon exchanges and making people aware of their carbon footrprint.

The fact is, global warming is a reality. It doesnt matter what's causing it, the money and research should be being spent working out how we are going to live with it. Even if CO2 and humans arent causing it, we still have to learn how to deal with the consequences.

The Earth has continually warmed and cooled and we cant expect it to remain in a nice comfortable temperate temperature just because this is best for our societies. We should be looking at building storm proof cities, investing in flood defenses, and looking for alternative food and power resources.

Answer 9

Read the report for yourself. http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html

If you can accept science as a valid frame of reference, and then actually understand the science, the situation becomes self-evident to the point of being painfully obvious.

There is no credible claim to show that we have no culpability for this, so it stands to reason that we should be able to change what we are doing and undo what we have done.

The fact is Americans are 5% of the population and consume 26% of the energy.

“The concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by man has risen significantly during the historical record and it is absolutely known (by reproducible, verifiable lab experiments on the physical properties of these gases) that these gases cause warming by absorbing the outgoing radiation from the earth. The skeptics have not produced any evidence that this rise in the greenhouse gas concentrations occurred by some natural process and they have also failed to explain how all the industrial emissions could have been absorbed by some natural process during the recent historical period. There is no way to explain the observed greenhouse gas concentrations without human interference, and there is no credible way to claim that the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations has not caused a warming of the Earth’s surface. While there are other natural processes at work and while the climate system is highly complex, trying to discount the role of human involvement in recent climate change is speculation and opinion, not science.” - Asher Siebert.


From Scientific American
March 15, 2001
More Proof of Global Warming
By Harald Franzen

"Although most scientists are convinced that global warming is very real, a few still harbor doubts. But a new report, based on an analysis of infrared long-wave radiation data from two different space missions, may change their minds. "These unique satellite spectrometer data collected 27 years apart show for the first time that real spectral differences have been observed, and that they can be attributed to changes in greenhouse gases over a long time period," says John Harries, a professor at Imperial College in London and lead author of the study published today in Nature.

As the sun's radiation hits the earth's surface, it is reemitted as infrared radiation. This radiation is then partly trapped by the so-called greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)—as well as water vapor. Satellites can measure changes in the infrared radiation spectrum, allowing scientists to detect changes in the earth's natural greenhouse effect and to deduce which greenhouse gas concentrations have changed.

The researchers looked at the infrared spectrum of long-wave radiation from a region over the Pacific Ocean, as well as from the entire globe. The data came from two different spacecraft—the NASA's Nimbus 4 spacecraft, which surveyed the planet with an Infrared Interferometric Spectrometer (IRIS) between April 1970 and January 1971, and the Japanese ADEO satellite, which utilized the Interferometric Monitor of Greenhouse Gases (IMG) instrument, starting in 1996. To ensure that the data were reliable and comparable, the team looked only at readings from the same three-month period of the year (April to June) and adjusted them to eliminate the effects of cloud cover. The findings indicated long-term changes in atmospheric CH4, CO2, ozone (O3) and CFC 11 and 12 concentrations and, consequently, a significant increase in the earth's greenhouse effect."

Answer 10

Notice that trevor, the top contributor to global warming claims CO2, nitrous oxide, and methane are the primary green house gases and then goes on to try to blame humans and specifically Americans. I know most of them know better but I am starting to think they are deliberately misleading. The primary greenhouse gas is water vapor and it is far more important than all the others put together. There has been a natural trend of increasing CO2 and it has lagged behind the temperature. This indicates that increasing temperatures are probably resulting in increasing CO2 and not vice versa as is often claimed. Since man has industrialized, he has certainly been releasing some CO2 which is vital in the cycle of life and is not a poison or pollution as some on the left want to claim. Just because we released CO2 doesn't mean we caused warming. Since CO2 hasn't been shown to result in warming, they have no leg to stand on but that won't stop them from blaming America and that is the best revelation for who they really are and what they stand for and it is not science, it is politics.