Will an independent Kosovo make the Balkans more or less stable?

Question

(Firstly.. this is a neutral q.. only interested in the practicalities.. I'm not interested in the moral reasons why Kosovo is Serbia..or why it should be independent)



Here are some possiblities that I can think of..

INDENPENDENT--
A quick independence.. might be the best solution because everybody will know where they stand..and can get on with building a future coexistence.. And this should be the final border change and finally be able to draw a line

On the otherhand.. It could make the reason less stable..because it will encourage independence movements , ie over the border in Macedonia.. There is greater Albanianism..And what about Presevo.
Bosnia could become less stable because Republika Srpska would argue that it should be independent..
And a what about Kosovo Serbs who are a large minority

PART OF SERBIA ---
The majority of the population don't want this.. And Kosovo will be a restless population to govnern, and a drain on resources.
Discontenment and unrest will spill over the borders into Macedonia.. which has it's own problem which has been dealt with sucessfully..
Violent Albanian nationalist movements will get more support

What are your opinions.. What is the best solution. Is there any that will satisfy everyone?

@Predrag.. I wasn't trying ..to extend thq question,

I was only suggesting some possiblities, either way.. and tried to look at both sides.. Sorry if it came out wrong

@doppest thanks for answering :)

What do you mean EU 'experimental' !!!? ..Ok you are American..I forgive you :))
The EU is the best thing that happened in Europe last century.. and it is very lasting.. OK.. in a million billion years ..it won't be there..but so won't Serbia or Kosovo...

I agree that there is too much hatred on both sides.. for Kosovo to remain part of Serbia.. It just won't work..
If there is a quick independence.. I think it is best way to repair relations..instead of hate festering..
And who knows maybe.. in 100 yrs....Kosovo and Serbia will decide to renight..because they miss each other.. pigs might fly..but it could happen!

I think a EU Kosovo and a EU Serbia are best for all concerned..

OK..Not all Serbs will recognise Kosovo..but the liberal party will.. So that's 5%ish.. it's a start!!!


@Smart guy.. There are NO criminal nations.. are peoples are equally good and bad..

@Aeiou.. What about a 'Hilandar' solution where the monastry land is under nominal Serb control.. just like in Hilander.. And no one has problem with that..

Also I think the religious heritage.. is shared you are right.. And excluding a few hotheads I think most Kosovo Albanians.. do realise that..

Answer 1

Independence is the best solution for all scenarios and sides.
Let's see thing from a logical point of view.

Belgrade is againts Independence and would like to offer the Kosovars broader rights. Kosovars did once have broader rights under Yugoslavia and it did not work out than it will not work out now. They had demonstrations, strikes at Trepcka, illegal(according to Yugoslav laws) underground movements and so on. The Serbs see Albanians as intruders that multiplied like rabbits. The Serb media, their politicians, even their priest preach this in their churches. They see Albanians as lacking culture and education, they see them as uncouth barbarians. They see them as Muslim relatives of the Turk that subjugated their people in the very same Kosovo. When you have a society looking down on another this way it will take many years for all this to change. It is build up hate years and years in the making. You can't just wake up one day and say 10 year later and proclaim we are now ready to accept the Albanians as our fellow country men with broader rights. So by Serbs coming out and saying look we are about to get into the EU and we will all be together anyway, and to be a UE member you need to behave and we will behave and what took place in the late 90's was due to Milosevic and we were under his strict control. But here is how I'd like to comment to people that propose these points. First of all the EU is experimental and may not last what then start all over again? Okay why not (Serbs) support Kosovo being independent and show the world that you are a supporter of freedom and truly democratic, and then we shall all be together in the UN as you claim. Serbs say Under his strict control (Milosevic's)or did he look good at the time and was the best man for job in a very nationalistic period of Balkan history. The Kosovar ALbanian will fight until the last drop of blood not to let Serbian forces and police in. These people are not welcome and if they step into Albanian cities to resume control there will be war this I will assure you. Belgrade knows this and this why it has not sent in the organs of control back into Kosovo. Come on do you really think Serbs respect the UN as was the case in Bosnia? But they do respect NATO and their bombs.

Everything should settle into place once independence is granted. As for the Albanians of Preshevo Valley , what is negotiate and on behalf of the Serbs of Kosovo the same should be negotiated assured for the Albanians of the Preshevo valley. If the Serbs of Kosovo want an entity of their own within Kosovo than the same should be given to the Albanians in Preshevo, and Bujanovc. Republic Srbska has de facto independence already.

Athena it is easy for you to say no to independence bt yes to autonomy and I'm well aware that you are excersising you freedom of speech but realize one thing, that you beloved Croatia was fighting for it's independence once as my people are in Kosovo and I'd really suggest that you see thing from our point of view and when your country expelled the Serbs from Krajina, Milosevic settled them in our Kosovo and a lot of these Serbs now are in Mitrovica some of them the biggest openents of independence.

"YOU MAY TAKE AN ALBANIAN FROM FREEDOM, BUT YOU CANNOT TAKE THE FREEDOM OUT OF AN ALBANIAN" . LONG LIVE A FREE KOSOVA!

SMART GUY- Speaking of organs you can have my scrotum.

Answer 2

Clearly, there is no solution that will leave all parties satisfied.

It's far from perfect, but my feeling is that Kosovo should probably be granted full independence. This is because the overwhelming majority of Kosovars want it, and also because the next steps for Kosovo, which would be based on further economic development of the area, really can't take place until the situation in Kosovo is such as to make it more attractive for outside investment. As long as Kosovo is part of a nation which about 90% of the population want out of, I think the questions concerning its political future will discourage investment, and thereby prevent development.

There is some risk that this will lead to secessionist movements elsewhere. But the risk is lower because the former Yugoslavia has already been pretty thoroughly Balkanized, so to speak. The former provinces of Slovenia, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Montenegro, Croatia, and Macedonia are now all independent states. It's hard to see where further splitting can take place, unless perhaps Vojvodina (primarily populated by ethnic Serbs, but with a distinct political/cultural identity from Serbia) wants to split off from Serbia.

Answer 3

I think you narrowed your question correctly, but then you expanded it backwards for some reason. I will reply only to what could happen with independent Kosovo and regional stability.

First, you would have minorities which would have to leave Kosovo. Yes-no, well definately a yes, because the Kosovo society has already shown the minorities their perspective. This would bring stability to Kosovo, to the ethnically pure peoples. Ethnic cleansing brings stability to the region... in the spoken context.

Ethnic cleansing of minorities in Kosovo is something the Albanians are not punished for, because they are Albanians...

The Albanian appetites could grow in Macedonia. Most probably not in Montenegro.

Nothing much would happen in Serbia. Perhaps only the Radical Party would have more voters. The Hungarians in Vojvodina have played their best cards, with no strong trumpfs.

This situation has nothing to do with Serbs in Bosnia. After all, Serbs have lived under double standards these last fifteen years. Nevertheless, the Serbs in Bosnia are doing quite well. They are slowly pushing themselves away from the claws of the union with a hostile and (politically) hateful nation as Bosnian Muslims are.

In politics there is no such thing as final border dealed by some higher force playing international policemen (or peacemaker as they call themselves). You think that Serbs would percieve this "final border" concept the way you percieve it?

We all already know where we all stand. USA is standing against Russia, wants to blow it away before it gets to be a stronger threat. EU is balancing, with a tendency to sacrifice Serbia for the bennefit of the relief... The Albanians play the role of political vultures.

I used to call them cancer, but cancer is something one either puts under radiation or cuts. Radiation in Kosovo has not given good results. The 15 tons of Depleted Uranium have worked their way into Italian radiologists, and some other. Once cut, cancer comes back again. They always speak of some final border medicine where you put your body on one side and cancer on the other and the two coexist away from each other, but those always end being roumors.)

PS. The churches and monasteries, some of which are (had been) protected by UNESCO, do not belong only to Serbia but supposely to the entire European and/or world civilization... just like the Buddhist temples in Pakistan... As conclusion, the creation of a monoculture kinda appeals to some definitions of peace.

Athena, the Albanians are offered the fullest autonomy anyone in the world could have, but that is not the "American trend."

Added:

First we deal with the big issue, and later we could deal with the leftovers of some monastery ruins. The few hotheads you mention seem to be quite not under control, as there is no such thing as control in Kosovo right now.

Answer 4

Kosovo has always been a part of Serbia. It was at its most stable and properous circa 1974 when Kosovo was granted practical autonomy by the new Constitution. For the most part, both Serbs and Ethnic Albanians were happy. Things fell apart when Serbia revoked that autonomy.

Breaking Kosovo off doesn't necessarily makes sense; it would be like breaking off California because of a high Mexican population. Still, even if Serbia granted Kosovo the autonomy (not formal independence) it once had, the Ethnic Albanians may view it as an opportunity to try and make a break.

No solution will satisfy all parties involved, but I do believe the ideal solution for the time being is for Serbia to gradually grant Kosovo the autonomy it once enjoyed.


Edit: I try to be objective, but it's hard as a Croatian-American. I feel for the stuggle of the Albanians in Kosovo, but I also realise that countries should not just be breaking off chunks of their land to satisfy ethnic minorities. Besides, Serbian pride will not soon let that happen.

Answer 5

I agree with your line of thinking - but no, there's clearly not a solution that will satisfy everyone. I would like to see it independent, but I don't think they would have any stability (in regards to the people and the economy). There's some good articles below about it (although the first one's kinda old, it still holds some truth).

Answer 6

Less stable, of course.

This problem should have been acknowledged a while ago, but its significance was overshadowed by the Gulf War (early nineties) at a very crucial time.

Conflict on this matter is inevitable. No treaties, no proposals, and no negotiations can reverse the tension that has built up for over two decades, now.

When a problem is not recognized and dealt with early, tensions will rise, which we already have seen. Delaying a resolution would only intensify this tension, which would, in turn, worsen the unavoidable tragedy that will follow (bloodshed).

No one would like to see bloodshed, but realistically, neither side of the conflict will be mutually happy with the final status, whether it be independence or autonomy.

I do predict that an independent status would... http://onnidan.net/ubb/graemlins/thefan.gif
...but this resolution should not be to blame because this same conflict can be seen globally. The Balkan Peninsula is not the only place to have screwed up and imposed borders. Africa is a perfect example of this.

I hate to admit it, but I do feel we have reached an era of global-scale emancipation, whether it be political (against a regime) or territorial.

There are so many conflicts that have gone on far too long, and my ultimate fear is WW3 !!!

Answer 7

Balkan will be more stable with the independence of kosova,no doubt on that.the process of disintegration of ex_Yugoslavia will end with independence of Kosova.after that ,the governments of new states born from this break will recognize each other ,and start negotiations to join EU.that is the only way,and only chance for those states to became EU members,and part of European nations and part of European dream.Kosovo and his citizens are working very hard to left the past behind them,and to turn their head in future ,working for benefits of new generations that are coming,with more demands and much more expectations.life with serbia is like an nightmare that is gone,forever.there;s no turning back,no reunion ,maybe just good neighbors.it depends from serbians.if they go on with their old story that Kosovo is serbian,then i am afraid that Albanians(and they are more than93% of Kosovars)will close the page with serbians once for ever.
when i read opinions of aeiou,or jelena,goxy or ivet(i will not name bojo,or mp they are just stupid ,i dont blame them for that),then i realize that there is no future for good relations between serbians and albanians.so,let it be.anyway,we are the winers here.

Answer 8

Hello dear!
Split and rein!
If we could unite all the Peninsula to one strong coalition, this would bring stability, improve living standards of all people and we keep Peace! Instead, every now and then, bombardments kill thousands and destroy our beautiful region due to the will of superpowers who want ot control parts of us!

Answer 9

It sure would be dangerous,not only for the Balkans,but the whole world,because it would encourage separatists across the globe...Even now,Kosovo has became a "heaven" for drug and weapons dealers,white slavery and even illegal organ trading...And all that because Serbian police had to leave.Not to mention that KLA and other Albanian separatists cooperate with Al Quaeda.