Will a nuclear war occur within the next century?

Question

Who beleives nuclear war is going to happen in our lifetimes and why?

Answer 1

Depends on how you define "nuclear war".

IF you mean the all out nuclear exchange that was feared during the cold war, no. For one thing both the USA and Russia have much smaller stocks of nukes than they used to have. Also, as the accuracy of the missles has gotten better the nukes themselves have gotten smaller. In the early days when your CEP (Circular Error Probablity) was large you needed a big boom because all you could be reasonably sure of was that your warhead would come within a few MILES of what you wanted to blow up. Now that the CEP is a lot lower, you can use a smaller nuke and still have very high confidence that your target will be destroyed.

On the other hand, if by "nuclear war" you mean somebody using a nuke some place other than a test range, I'd say there is a near 100% chance of that happening before the century is out. I'd add that there is a 75% chance that whoever detonates this nuke will be named Mohammed.

Iran is the most likely suspect to use the bomb. Unless strong (i.e. military) action is taken they will probably have a handful of nukes by November 2008. They keep saying they want to nuke Israel, and I don't think they are kidding.

Iran is also a prime supporter of terrorist organizations around the world. They helped create Hammas and Hezbollah, and they work with Al Queda when it serves their interest. The possibiltity that they would pass a few nukes to their terrorist pals can not be discounted either.

Doing this would be Iran's best possible move. If Iran used a missile or a plane to deliver a nuke to Tel Aviv (or London, or Washington D.C.) then they could expect a devistating nuclear response from Israel/UK/ USA. If however they use a cut out organization to detonate the nuke for them, then they have the satisfaction of having nuked their enemy, but they would have a good chance of avoiding a nuclear counterstrike, as the USA could not launch an action unless it could "prove" that Iran was behind it... and no matter how conclusive the proof the New York Times, CNN, CBS, etc. would howl, scream, and do all they could to prevent us killing "innocent" Iranians.

There has been discussion of using small nukes in a pre-emptive strike against Iran to prevent them getting the bomb. Not being fools the Iranians have placed their nuclear facilities in deep bunkers to protect them from an American or Israeli air strike. A nuke could get to them, but not much else could.

Of all the nuclear powers (USA, Russia, France, UK, China, India, Pakistan, Israel) Pakistan is probably the most likely to use a nuke. They have been at war with India three times in the past 60 years, and while the possibiltiy of another war between India and Pakistan is rather remote right now, it is the most likely scenario in which a nuke might be used. (Mainly because other scenarios are even more unlikely.)

North Korea tried to test a nuke a few months back, but it didn't work. The result was a fizzle. This called into question both the possibiltiy of North Korea actually having a bomb and of their ability to pass such a bomb to terrorists. (It didn't enhance the Iranians chances either, the two had been working together IIRC, though Iran has probably also been getting data from some of the folks who worked on the Pakistani bomb project, and they DID make a working nuke.

So yes, I think it highly likely that a nuke, probably a few nukes, will be used before... oh 2045, perhaps even before 2020 or 2010, but the all out civilization killing total nuclear holocaust... no that is no longer a real danger.

Answer 2

Those in the know are predicting that a terrorist org will pop off a nuke in NYC or LA harbor within the very near future. This isn't an if question any more its just a matter of time. As far as a full on nuclear war, With north Korea having the bomb and Iran getting real close the possibilities are certainly there.

Answer 3

I don't think we'll see one in our lifetime.
once a nuclear war starts its the end of the human race as we know it.
that is why nobody has launched a nuclear weapon at another country since WWII.

the only true chance of a nuclear war would be between china and the united states.

Answer 4

It will happen more than once within the next 100 years.

Here are some scenarios.

A. Terrorists smuggle a nuclear device into an American city
B. China or N. Korea will nuke America
C. Pakistan and India will nuke each other
D. Israel and Iran will nuke each other.
E. America will nuke Iran

Answer 5

Absolutely! It's not going to come from where we all expect. It's coming from the Chinese. They have been quietly building their military for years. They are waiting for the right time. Every now and then they slip up and reveal their intentions. They are not concerned with human rights. They have suggested the US could loose 10's of millions if a strike were to occurs along the Eastern US. The prize for victory is world domination. The price of victory will be the 100's of millions dead. As long as their leadership remains in tact they don't care. Mark my words.

Answer 6

Hi guys... Iran will never start a war but if US or Israel attack Iran will defeat defeat them If US or Israel attacks Iran , Iran will launch rockets to Israel and Israel will be down in 4 hours.. so they will never be stupid enough to attack Iran Iran actually invested a lot is Syria so Syria will help Iran and Syria is strong(believe me!) Hezbollah Lebanon Is strong . they have the experience of fighting Isreal and actually they defeated Israel and guess who supports them ? Iran If there will be a war every every Iranian will fight for the country (I'm an Iranian and I know that)

Answer 7

No, becuase if one country launches a nuclear missile they will return fire and bring in allies and cause a global apolcypse. It was nice when we were the only ones with nuclear bombs back in WW2.

Answer 8

Iran will denoate a nuke soon.
The shock of the world will rain down on Iran but the liberals will defend them or create consiparcy saying the republicans did it.

Answer 9

we can stop a nuclear war by using them now on iran and n korea

Answer 10

By the Grace of God your anwser would be no. But by the foolishness of men your anwser would be yes. All things are possible by the Grace of God. And destruction is probable with the mind of man.