Buy mutual funds now or wait until later?

Question

I am in a position to purchase some mutual funds for my retirement portfolio. Hopefully retiring in 5 to 10 years. I'm debating whether to purchase the funds now or wait until the fall or winter. The reason I am hesitating is that it appears that the market is due for a "correction". Most investment pundits predict somewhere between 3 percent and 8 percent. I'd prefer to buy when the correction occurs and ride some of the upside. Am I being too cautious or should I bite the bullet and buy now with the expectation that a correction will occur and I'll still make up for that 3 to 8 percent loss in the long run. I'm looking for some good insight. Please don't recommend a professional advisor. I've tried them before and I have done much better on my own. I know where to invest not just the right time. Thanks for your thoughts in advance.

Answer 1

My recommendation for your 'timing' question is to invest following a plan called "cost share averaging" or something similar to that. The concept is to invest a fixed amount at regular intervals. The net effect is that you get more shares when prices are low and buy less when they are high. As far as the right time, the old adage "time in the market is more important that timing the market" holds true in my opinion. No one really knows where the market is going when; all they have is an opinion. Get in with reasonable amounts spaced over a period of time and stick with your plan through the good and the not so good times.

Answer 2

You have received some really good advice from the previous responders. As one said 5 years is a rather short period of time for investing in equities. The reason being that if there is a sever market correction of the 2000 variety, you will likely not make up your losses in 5 years. I actually do not foresee that happening, but who knows what the future might hold.

Here is a plan, maybe not the greatest of plans but nevertheless one for you to consider. Take 25% to 50% of the amount you planned to invest and invest it now. Put the rest in t-bills. When the t-bills come due in 6 months add another 5% and roll the remainder into more t-bills. Keep up that strategy. If there is a correction you will be buying more shares. If not you will be buying fewer, but you will also be making money in the process.

Make sure that the mutual funds you pick are not closely corrolated. ie do not pick two growth stock mutual funds for example.

If you are in fact looking to retire in 5 years, you may want to stick with mutual funds that are somewhat conservative in nature for the greater portion of your investments. I do not believe that most growth funds have yet recovered from the 2000 fall out.

Answer 3

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Answer 4

If you want to retire in 5 - 10 years and still need to ask if you should invest in mutual funds, you are about 30 years overdue to invest. There are some very good financial advisors out there, it appears that you may have just not found one of them. If this is all you have you can't afford to waste anymore time. If you play the guessing game and the market goes up, what will you do? You should dollar cost average it (invest the same dollar amount every month), that way you are buying fewer shares when the market it up and more shares when the market it down.

Answer 5

Be very careful buying a mutual fund now with a large stake.
The market has ran up, but your reason for concern is misplaced.
If a fund is up say 20% to date and you buy it now, you pay the capital gains tax on the run up, but you were not in at the beginning for the increase.
If you are dollar cost averaging and putting some in every few weeks, then a mutual fund is ok.
If you have a large amount to invest, consider the tax consequences carefully.
You might want to consider ETF's (exchange traded funds). Most of the time, you don't have a capital gain until you sell an ETF. IMO, this is a better option for a large investment.
good luck.

Answer 6

Market Timing does not work. Best bet, put it in all at once. Next best thing... dollar cost average into funds over the next year.

What you really need to do is buy two books on retirement investing. The "dummy" series has a great book on retirement investing. Then look for a book on investing in no-load funds. NEVER INVEST WITHOUT AN "Asset Allocation" PLAN!!!!!!!!!!!!! Never invest in something you don't understand.

Answer 7

You have an interesting position. You eschew "professional advisors" (who may not all be 'great', but every last one of them wants you to come to them if & when you win the lottery, and typically they treat you accordingly!), but you want the opinions of total strangers!

Bite the bullet. Just choose the right funds for your risk-tolerance level. Otherwise you are losing money!

If you plan to retire in 10 years, the logical choice is one of the time-based "asset allocation" model funds; they balance stocks, bonds & loose ends to optimize return by being aggressive initially, but also minimize risk by getting steadily more conservative as your retirement date approaches.

Fidelity have one, as do many others....

Here's the T.Rowe Price version:

Answer 8

drop a chunk in now but not all. Leave the rest in an account that they can take money out of to feed the fund every week. If we have a huge correction in the market, then just dump it all in at once

Answer 9

quit trying to time the market. Dollar cost average into it. 5 years is not really long enough to be invested in stocks anyway.

Answer 10

Put your money in a money market account until late October, then buy an index fund.