How many HRs would Bonds have without steroids?

Question

i know hes never been caught but assuming he took roids for those 5 amazing years where he hit a total of 258 HRs. now assuming he didnt take any steroids how many HRs do you think he would end up with? do you think he would have the single season record? or do you think he would be chasing aarons HR record without steroid use?

thanks for answering

Answer 1

High 300's to low 400's.....

Answer 2

I just did some quick calculations on this.

Its been said in the media that BB started the juice after or during Mark McGwire's assault on the single season HR record in 1998. Assuming BB was clean from his rookie season through the 1998 season his HR/year average is 32.

In 1999 through the 2004 season is HR/year average is 49. I've discounted 2005 and 2006 because he was out a significant part of each season with injury.

For comparison, I checked Hank Aaron's career stats. Through his entire career Aaron averaged 33 HR/year. He played 1 year more than Barry has so far. Aaron had a very much up and down career with regard to home runs, he hits 25 one, then 40 the next, then 33 the next and so on. There wasn't the consistant high HR/year numbers BB has put up in the later part of his carrer. Prior to 1998. BB's HR/year was similar to what HA was putting up. After 1998 he's a solid 40+ every season.

Based on averages I'd say Barry was on a career average of 32 HRs / season, and like Aaron should be tailing off near the end. Discounting the 2005/2006, Barry should have had 603 HRs at the start of the 2005 season, he actually had 703.

Based on the math, he is hitting 17 HR/year more on average since the rumored start of his taking the juice.

Without the juice, according to the numbers, he would never have caught Hank Aaron unless he played 3-4 years longer than Aaron did in his career and maintained 32 hr/year average and wasn't injured in 2005/2006 seasons. Barry is 43 now, he would have to play until age 46 to 47 sans juice. Assuming he breaks the record this year, odds are this will be the last.

Answer 3

I'd guess he'd have about 650 HRs without the roids.He's a great ball player,though it pains me to say it.You could probably minus about 100 hrs from his lifetime total, minus the roids.I figure with his big roid infested body,he probably hits the ball 25 feet furthur than he would of without roids.So all those HRs he hit over the years,that barely cleared the fence,would have stayed in the park.Hes a jerk,roids never changed that.Hes always been a jerk.Hank Aaron is twice the man Bonds will ever be.Hank should keep the record but he won't.Bonds deserves the HOF only because he did what he did before they set all the penalties in place.One thing accolades can never give him is class.Even in the HOF,know one will ever respect him, so in the long run,his records and prestige playing the game,really mean nothing.

Answer 4

He was a great player, but in the five years prior to 2000, he averaged 37.2 home runs per year. In the next five years averaged 51. He hit more than 40 in all 5 seasons during this stretch, something he had done in only 3 seasons before all of this started.

His home run binge also started after he turned 36 years old. Most players are beginning to decline at that age, not improve.

My guess is that he would have hit about 30 home runs per year during this time, leaving him about 100-150 shy of where he is now, and he never would have hit 73, or even 50 without steroids.

Answer 5

Given that his numbers started going up when most player's start going down, I gave him, from 2000 on, 35, 30, 30, 28, 25, 5, 20, and 8. I was, I think, generous, simply because he had already established himself as a Hall of Fame caliber player. That takes away about 120 homers from his total, still putting him above 600, but nowhere near challenging Aaron. Assuming that his production would have dropped more, and/or that he would have retired or become a bench player, he would probably be in the high 500's.

Answer 6

Far fewer!

In his first 9years in the league he hit 222hrs. In 1993 he hit 46, the most he had hit until that point. He was 29yrs old at that point and in his prime.

Over the next 6 yrs he hit 223hrs. During these 6 yrs his highest total for one year was 42hrs in 1996 he was 32yrs old. In the last 4 years of this 6 yr time you can see his power falling off.42hrs in in 96,40hrs in 97, 37hrs in 98, and 34hrs in 99.

So after 15 yrs in the Majors he had hit 445hrs, was 35yrs old and showing signs of age and power drop off. Just as many players do at the end of a long career. But not Barry! Over the next 5 yrs he hit 258hrs. In 2001 at the age of 37 he broke the single season HR record that had been broken by another cheater only a few years earlier by hitting 73hrs.

I would say going by the rate of decline from the years 96-99 and his age at the end of that 99 season had he not cheated the game, himself and most importantly the fans he would have hit around 600hrs.

Answer 7

My ROIDS subtracting calculator says he would have exactly minus 12 per year..... This calculator takes into account all the home runs that barely made it out, the high pop ups that had that little extra power to be pushed out and the line shots that had just a little more lift and bat speed to make it out of the park. Guaranteed....

He wouldn't have the single season home run mark... He would have tied Roger Maris with 61... I'm guessing that he started juicing before the 93 season when his home run totals really took off... and he stopped juicing and started deteriorating before the 05 season when his home run totals were back to normal... SO, if you give each season he was juicing the minus 12 he ends up with 602 career homers as of today.. Which puts him in striking distance of Willie Mays... Who ended with 660 for his career. This calculator does have a +/- 3 variance a season.

Answer 8

His previous high was 49 (in 2000). Prior to that, 46, so it's pretty close.

I would discredit him for 23 in 2001, then probably 5, 8, 10, 10 the following years (due only to age and the # of walks)

That takes only 56 away. I think that's reasonable which is why while I am against Bonds the user, I am not against him being in the hall of fame. I think he deserved it well before his ego took a hit in 1998.

I think he has about 690 home runs, 500+ stolen bases and 0 character.

Answer 9

I am give Barry Bonds partial credit for being a good ballplayer, but I think that his total would be about 100-140 home runs less than he has right now.

Answer 10

I couldn't say. But I DO think it would be sad to see Aaron's HR record by someone we all know used steroids. I wish they'd just quit pitching to him.

Answer 11

602