If Global warming is happening what is normal temperature? and how did you determine that it is normal?

Answer 1

No such thing as a "normal" temperature. 40,000 years ago when ice covered North America, a "normal temperature" might have been below freezing; 55 million years ago the water temperature at the North Pole was about 77 degrees; What was the "normal temperature" then?

I hope you see my point...

Answer 2

The key base figure scientists use is the average temperature over the entire surface of the Earth. Emphasis on the word "average"--obviously the temperature varies from time to time andplace to place.

They've keept records for almost 2 centuries now--and can also get a lot of data about temperature from its effects on the earth, the sea, plants, etc. Once they boil all this down, they have the average global temperature. Now, it does cycle around--a bit higher at times and a bit lower othe rtimes--in line with normal short-term climate cycles. So it has to be computed over time as well to allow for seasonal variations and cycles.

When all is said and done, the scientists have a figure--the average global temperature at a particular point in time. And they've been measuring this year by year for well over a century (earlier figure s are there too--though less precise, but still good enough to see general trends).

And the average global temperature has been going up for decades. Not by much--and not even every year--but it's definately increasing (and the rate of increase is accelerating). Why, of course, is another matter. Scientists hav eloooked at dozens of possible cuauses--and ruled them out as major causes (including all of the so-called natural causes the conspiracy nuts like to post--all this stuff has already been checked--years ago). A little (maybe 15%) of the warming IS from these natural causes. The rest comes from human activity (burning fossil fuels, mostly).

Naturally, it took a long time--a couple of decades--to do the enourmous amount of research and analysis needed to come to that conclusion--and that's been settled just in the last few years. But the scintific debate is over with. The question now is what sort of policies and changes should we develop to deal with the problems global warming will (and isalready starting to) cause.

Answer 3

The idea of an average global temperature is flawed. Actually, there is no such thing. And no, I didn't just come up with that all by myself.

I quote:

"Physical, mathematical, and observational grounds are employed to show that there is no physically meaningful global temperature for the Earth in the context of the isue of global warming. While it is always possible to construct statistics for any given set of local temperature data, an infinite range of such statistics is mathematically permissible if physical principles provide no explicit basis for choosing among them. Distinct and equally valid statistical rules can and do show opposite trends when applied to the results of computations from physical models and real dta in the atmosphere. A given temperature field can be interpreted as both 'warming' and 'cooling' simultaneously, making the concept of warming in the context of the issue of global warming physically ill-posed."

Your question also questions the underlying premise of rationale for the Kyoto Protocol.

The 1990 CO2 emissions baseline is completely arbitrary. They could have picked any year they wanted.

The interesting thing about arbitrary decisions is that anyone can make them.

Here is mine, lets say that I want 1998 to be the average temperature baseline.

Guess what... we would actually be in a slight cooling phase (with rising CO2 levels) if we used that baseline. Isn't that fun? Any idiot can pick a baseline to fit whatever story they want. Neat, huh?

If something is based on a flawed premise ("average" global temp) and has an arbitrary baseline, it is not a sound concept.

Answer 4

nobody can say witch would be the best global temperature every area has its own cycle of heat and cold.the temperatures are measured daily everywere on the globe or where it is important to know several times a day and the results are being logged.and they did that in the past to..for a 100 years or more so they compare for example the temperature of 14 may since 1900 until today and i believe that you would be able to observe that the temperature has risen with a few degrees (2 or 3)

Answer 5

Most data on climate changes is referenced to the average global temperature for the period of 1950-1981. This then is what is considered to be "normal".

Answer 6

Since the climate is always changing there's no normal. You can try to estimate an average.

We're told that the earth's average temp is up a couple degrees in a century. The margin of error of such an estimate is more than a couple degrees so it doesn't mean much.

Answer 7

Al Gore took it's temperature. He used a global thermometer in the south pole.

Answer 8

There is no normal temperature, but....

What there is the temperature we're at now, how it's increasing, and what will be the result of further increases.

Here's the first two:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Climate_Change_Attribution.png

Here's the third:

http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSL052735320070407

Seems like something we'd want to avoid to the extent possible.

Answer 9

That is right there data don't add up. They are just creating fear ,and hate.