Betting Technique at Las Vegas, Genius or stupid?

Question

I want to know if betting this way is stupid... Bet $5. If you lose, bet $10, if you lose you bet $15, and keep going up by $5 every time you LOSE, and every time you WIN you go down $5, earning $5 every time you go down.

For example, if you are on $25 and you win you do down to $20.

My question is what are the odds in craps, (where you have around 40% of probability of wining,) of losing $1050 (that's 20 bets alltogether).

Answer 1

If you start at $5 and win then your bet goes to zero - that wouldn't be too bad ;-).

The probability of a win with one play is about 49.3% and a loss about 50.7%.

To answer you question is harder. If you want to know the odds of losing 20 bets IN-A-ROW, then that is very small (.507 ^ 20 =0.000001259...).

However, to calculate a 'net' of 20 losses is a tough question because, in part, you haven't stated how many hands you wish to play. EVENTUALLY... if you continue to play then your net losses will become greater than any chosen value; in particular, you will evetually have more than 20, 200, 2000000, ... net losses.

You can estimate the number of plays it would take you to build up a net of 20 losses by:

[20/(q-(1-q))] ; where p=prob{loss} = .493

= [20/(.507-.493)]

= [20/.014] = 1429 plays expected until you have a net of 20 losses.

Good luck, and stop when your ahead!

Answer 2

1

Answer 3

Thats really up to you. These questions gets asked in here all the time, but the problem is everyone is different. If you smart with it, you can gamble with 100$ and have a great time. I remember on one trip top Vegas I turned 50$ into 900$ in 2 days. So you just never know what will happen. If I can give you a word of advice though, if you are on a budget avoid the clubs. They are the biggest ripoff. Its all about image and throwing money around to look flashy. I am not saying there is anything wrong with that from time to time, but if money is actually important to you, try thre bars on the strip.. not clubs.

Answer 4

Most players in the casino are looking for a system to help them get the edge. Many of them stumble upon or hear about a surefire system that involves doubling their bets after each loss. They figure that sooner or later they have to win. This system that is called the Martingale system and it has been around for years. It has also been the ruin of many players. Here is how it works. You make a bet and if you lose you double your bet. If you lose again you double your bet. You keep doing this until you win and then go back to your original bet.

Let’s look at an example of the Martingale. For this example we will assume you are playing on a five-dollar table. First of all most casinos have a maximum bet. Many five-dollar tables have a maximum bet of $500. If you bet using the martingale where you double after every loss the progression would look like this:

You bet $5 and you lose.
Your next bet is $10. If you lose:
Your next bet is $20. If you lose:
Your next bet is $40. If you lose:
Your next bet is $80. If you lose:
Your next bet is $160. If you lose:
Your next bet is $320. If you lose:
Your next bet is $640, which exceeds the maximum bet for the table.

It would only take eight losses to exceed the table maximum bet. It doesn't matter how many times you double up your bet. You will up you will only win five dollars if you eventually hit. This takes into account all your progressions up to that point. Even if you could exceed the $500 maximum bet, on the eighth bet you are risking $640 to win $5. You have already invested $635 for your previous seven bets. If you lose that one you are out $1,275. Can you imagine risking over a thousand dollars for a chance to win five dollars?

The casinos know that if someone had unlimited resources they would eventually win. That is why the set maximum bets at the table.

Since the next roll in craps is not dependent on the previous roll, you would have a 60% chance of losing 8 in a row, assuming you are betting on the same number each time.

Answer 5

Stupid.