is Nuclear war with Russia more or less likely now than in the Cold War period?

Question

Consider major events such as the Cold War, the Cuban missile crisis, Vietnam detente, disarmament, SALT negotiations, etc. Do you think that we have finally thawed out the cold war?

Lets try and focus on Russia and the U.S., please. :)
If anyone has read the novel by Pat Frank, "Alas, Babylon", then that is where this question is derived from.

Answer 1

Far less likely. Having a nuclear war with China is more likely. Many people in China say war with the U.S. is unavoidable.

CHINESE GENERAL THREATENED TO NUKE U.S.
2005:
Chinese general warns of nuclear risk to US
http://www.guardian.co.uk/china/story/0,7369,1529754,00.html
"A senior Chinese general has warned that his country could destroy hundreds of American cities with nuclear weapons if the two nations clashed over Taiwan."

2006: CHINA THREATENED TO NUKE JAPAN
The president or premier of China said it in March 2006.
This was one of links to communist websites in China that carried the story. China removed the story after it got so much attention.
http://bbs14.xilu.com/CGI/viewbbs/emas/154162.html

China was helping the U.S.'s enemy in the Kosovo. That enemy was committing genocide. China helped North Korea in Korean war (China did a surprise attack on Americans and it never announced it was going into war against the U.S.) , China helped Viet Cong in Vietnam, China is currently making deals with Venezuela, China gave nuclear bomb making machines to Iran, China targets missiles at U.S. soldiers in Japan, China stole our nuclear bomb secrets, China wants us to go broke by devaluing their currency, etc..
China is currently pushing Iran to make nukes. China wants the U.S. to attack Iran which will weaken the U.S.'s military. China's grand plan is to get us involved in as many wars as possible. This was Chairman Mao's idea. Decades ago he announced it and China continues the policy today.
Clinton war right to bomb China's Kosovo embassy. China's embassy was supplying intel to the enemy.

Answer 2

Its very unlikely.But the Russian control of their mass nuclear arsenal is not nearly as safe as the U.S.An accidental launch from Russia is something to worry about.Or if their unstabble government and corrupt military does something stuipid.Other then that its basically China which is the cause of worry.A nuclear war with China would cause devistation for half a century.And it would knock out China's dream of becoming a superpower and the U.S dream of maintaining its status of a superpower.It would devistate every nation in the norhern hemisphere.A nuclear war with Russia is unlikely but if it every happened the devistation to mankind would be so great that it would take many many thousands of years for the planet to come back to normal.To give an example we can use the "Tsar Bomba"(Russia),its the most powerful nuclear device ever tested.It was oringinally meant to be 100 mt but was reduced to 50 mt.To com pare the the Hiroshima blast in WW2 was 20 kt.

1000 kt=1 mt

Tsar bomba was 50 mt.Many thousands of times more powerful then Hiroshima which killed 100,000 people.That one bomb which was tested in an Arctic Island caused windows to break hundreds of miles away in Finland.The explosian could be seen 1000 km away.The mushroom cloud was 60 km high.And it was 30-40 km wide.This means it could cause third degree burns more then 100 km away.And the radiation would spread much further.The scary thing is that it was capable of 100 mt.Two times more powerful.If you add up the U.S and Russian stockpile more then 50,000 nuclear warheads are available.Combined there are bombs equal or less powerful then Tsar Bomba.And there are many thousands.So if you can imagine it all detonating then its not as exciting as the fear mongers see it.The earth would look like Venus.the mushroom clouds and debris would spread into the atmosphere and block out the sun.Then there would be no plant growth.There would also be radiation.Only the lifeforms in the ocean or deep underground have the potential to survive.Humankind would be gone for good.The only hope for survival would be to head south.Although in movies or pop culture in every devistating event people tend to follow the pole star and head north since its the top of the world symbolizing hope.But in a nuclear fallout North is not wear you go.Everything in the world such as the tree growth and the rings in a tree (if you chop one) tend to go north.Thats because of the current.So basically if everyone went south in a nuclear fallout they are more likely to survive.It would be more warmer in the tropical climate and the radiation and dust would not be attracted south.

Hope I answered your question.

Answer 3

The hair triggers may be eased due to reduced tensions, however, it takes minutes on a key board to retarget missiles. My fear is the aging Russian command and control system and aging early warning systems. With the Soviet collapse, the risk of diversion to the black market/terrorists, rogue commanders and ill-maintained systems are the real danger.

Answer 4

Well these things that we are dealing with right now are what I like to referr to as demonstrations of power in an aim to prevent any kind of war with the soviets nuclear or otherwise.

Answer 5

That is still up i the air! Putin seemed to be a good answer to those concerns but now he is leaning toward being a dictator in Russia so we will have to wait and see.

Answer 6

Less likely. Our foreign diplomatic corps is now fighting the threat of terrorism instead of Communism.

Answer 7

Russia no longer poses any threat to us...I'd be more worried about North Korea and especially Iran.

Answer 8

Less likely

Answer 9

Answer is yes....
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