The bet on the flop wasn't a huge bet, he surprised me that he didn't call....was the king high flush draw not high enough? meaning he wasn't drawing to the nuts? thanks.
2007-03-26 18:42:08 · 5 answers · asked by Anonymous in Games & Recreation ➔ Gambling
not a paird board, 9 high flop I think.
2007-03-26 18:44:10 · update #1
I never saw the show, but I got it on TiVo. I think Poker Coach has it right.
The thing to remember here is that the money they are betting is real. If you flop a King high flush draw (four to the flush), you have about 35% chance to make your flush by the river.
So Phil would have to call all the bets to the river and would still only make his flush one in three times. He would have done a calculation as to what he would have to call to stay in the hand, along with what he is likely to have to call on the turn and river (implied odds), and then would have considered the read he had on the other player. If his opponent had a strong hand, Phil could simply be donating or gambling on that one in three chance of hitting.
Of course it could even be this simple, maybe he just wasn't feeling it. Maybe he just had a gut feeling that he was beaten, and that this was not the hand to gamble with. One wrong move in that game could cost a person half a million dollars or so in real money. You can't lose what you don't put in the middle.
2007-03-27 00:53:18 · answer #1 · answered by ZCT 7 · 0⤊ 0⤋
Pokercoach and ZCT have provided good analysis.
I will also add that any poker you see on TV (except for the few live, unedited tournaments) has been edited like crazy. They play for hours and hours and show you a couple hands that they deem interesting. It's very difficult to judge the flow of the game or how someone has been playing by watching the TV version. There could be things in the play that we didn't see that cause certain players to act the way they do.
Also, these players have played against each other many more times than just during HSP. Again, they have experienced way more vs. these players than we get to see. Any analysis we do is extremely flawed since we have so little of the necessary information.
Still fun to watch though.
2007-03-27 15:48:55 · answer #2 · answered by Sanjay M 4 · 1⤊ 0⤋
YES, he fold a flush draw (K heart)
By the way that surprise the commentator too. But if you calculate the pot odds, implied pot odds......He made the correct move(fold). And the bet to call was 12K I believe.
The commentator (G.Kaplan) like to "chase" straights and flush draws.....That's why he react that way. But if you don't have the right price to call........You muck your hand.
It wasn't about "drawing the nuts", that was just a question of price. If Ivey had a heart on the turn or river, and against one opponent.....He would have known he had the best hand, especially when his opponent try to push him of the hand by betting.
Take care
2007-03-27 01:46:28 · answer #3 · answered by pokercoach 5 · 1⤊ 0⤋
pokercoach and zct explains it all.
this play separates us amateur from pros.
2007-03-27 12:12:59 · answer #4 · answered by sunniejin 2 · 1⤊ 0⤋
if he didn't fold, the mob was going to kill his family.
2007-03-27 01:45:06 · answer #5 · answered by Anonymous · 0⤊ 4⤋