Is Iran trying to provoke the UK (and possibly the US) into war?

Question

Iran took 15 British sailors and marines captive, supposedly for wandering into Iranian waters. The violation of Iran's space is disputed by the British. However, an Iranian source states the sailors and marines who were arrested by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards off the coast of Iraq may be charged with spying. In another century, that would have provoked war. Is that what Mahmoud Ahmadinejad truly wants.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article1563877.ece

Answer 1

Iran is dealing with two issues. First, Iran has captured 15 British sailors. Second, Iran has refused to cooperate with the U.N. regarding cessation of uranium enrichment.

Military confrontation may be on the horizon.
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=3961
In addition to the British naval vessels at the Diego Garcia atoll in the Indian ocean, there is a multi-national force in the Persian Gulf. The British HMS Cornwall aircraft carrier strike group, the American aircraft carrier strike group Bremerton-based aircraft carrier CVN-74 John C. Stennis, the American aircraft carrier strike group USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and the French nuclear carrier Charles de Gaulle and its task force are all in close appoximation in the Persian Gulf.

More details about military options can be found here:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-strikes.htm

Iran has elicited "confessions" from the 15 British sailors they captured and may put them on trial for espionage. The penalty for espionage in Iran is death.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article1563877.ece
“If it is proven that they deliberately entered Iranian territory, they will be charged with espionage. If that is proven, they can expect a very serious penalty since according to Iranian law, espionage is one of the most serious offences.” Espionage carries a death sentence.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6493391.stm
Iran's detention of 15 Royal Navy personnel is "unjustified and wrong", Prime Minister Tony Blair has said. UK officials are waiting to be granted access to the HMS Cornwall staff, who were seized on Friday, and have not been told where the group are held.

"It simply is not true that they went into Iranian territorial waters and I hope the Iranian government understands how fundamental an issue this is for us," Mr Blair said.

"We have certainly sent the message back to them very clearly indeed. They should not be under any doubt at all about how seriously we regard this act, which is unjustified and wrong."

U.S. and British officials said a boarding party from the frigate HMS Cornwall was seized about during a routine inspection of a merchant ship inside Iraqi territorial waters near the disputed Shatt al-Arab waterway.

The seizure of two Royal Navy inflatable boats took place just outside the mouth of the Shatt al-Arab waterway, a 125-mile channel dividing Iraq from Iran. Its name means Arab Coastline in Arabic, and Iranians call it Arvandrud - Persian for Arvand River. A 1975 treaty recognized the middle of the waterway as the border.

Iranians send arms to Iraqi extremists, including sophisticated roadside bombs. This week, two commanders of an Iraqi Shiite militia told The Associated Press in Baghdad that hundreds of Iraqi Shiites had crossed into Iran for training by the elite Quds force, a branch of Iran's Revolutionary Guard thought to have trained Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon.

Regarding enrichment of uranium, Iranian President Mahmaoud Ahmadinejad abruptly cancelled his appearance before the U.N. security council and in his stead, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki Iran spoke. He indicated that Iran was willing to continue negotiations but without the precondition that uranium enrichment must be halted.

Mottaki said, "the world has two options to proceed on the nuclear issue: continued negotiations or confrontation. Choosing the path of confrontation ... will have its own consequences. "
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20070325/D8O3E7J00.html

The U.N. security council unanimously voted to expand sanctions on March 24, 2007.

The new resolution 1747 calls on Iran to comply fully with all previous UN resolutions and join negotiations to reach agreement so as to restore international confidence in the peaceful nature of its nuclear program. Full transparency and cooperation with the IAEA are required. Suspension of Iran’s banned nuclear activities will elicit the parallel suspension of sanctions. The package of incentives offered Tehran last year for its cooperation remains on the table.

The full text of the draft of resolution 1747 appears at this website:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6455853.stm
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Answer 2

Iran is hoping to get lucky like North Korea but what should happen is that GB and the rest of the world cut them off from all assets and stop the movement of Iranians in their countries. Only quick decisive action will get the results that are long overdue.

Answer 3

Iran doesn't really want war. At most he's trying to gain a strategic advantage over the UK. Most likely this is the same posturing that the aspiring arab national leaders have tended to show. Saddam did many things like this to show his "strength and resolve" the reason for this is really to gain standing in the arab community, and if it provokes a war it would be a grave miscalculation.

Answer 4

I think most likely they are just trying to get a psychological boost. This action can be used as a propaganda tool, for use in Iran and abroad, among allies and enemies. It is intended to make Iran look like a victim of Western injustice, but righteous and courageous.
Then, when they release the Brits, they will be merciful too.
I could be wrong, of course, but I think this is what is happening.

Answer 5

Mr armadinejad is a puppet of the real gov in Iran and that is the ayatollahs
the ayatollahs don't want trouble
the peeps making the ruckus's are just
trying to start they own agenda
satanic forces are at work my friend
Iran has nothing for which the UK or US needs worry about.
I get sick to damn death every time I think of the dumb *** leadership
the US and UK now have.
and the devil is using these weak bastards to make world war three
Its a damn shame the Muslims don't
have peaceful coexistence with anyone
not even themselves
one day the true god of Abraham will
work on these Muslims and peace will be restored

Answer 6

Iran to comply fully with all previous UN resolutions and join negotiations to reach agreement so as to restore international confidence in the peaceful nature of its nuclear program. Full transparency and cooperation with the IAEA are required. Suspension of Iran’s banned nuclear activities will elicit the parallel suspension of sanctions. The package of incentives offered Tehran last year for its cooperation remains on the table.

Answer 7

It sounds like they mostly want leverage for a prisoner of war exchange.

Answer 8

Sigh...

No.

I guess it's just me, but I see that everyone wants to dunk themselves into another conflict because they're so bored with Iraq.

Answer 9

they are testing the waters.

Answer 10

It is possible.......