The Inconvenient Truth?

Question

My Science Class is watching "The Inconvenient Truth" with Al Gore. So to all of those who've watched it...Is it true? isn't it scary? My teacher says he usually watches and hears about people saying things like this but their statistics are all wrong, but he said this movie is " wicked true ". It creeps me out! He talks about the polar bears and other animals going extinct, and about all the glaciers melting, and also about the artic and greenland breaking off and melting and causing a 20ft raise in ocean level. Its so creepy. I'm pretty sure its true, but the information seems so drastic.

Answer 1

i wasn't going to answer this at all - this is a topic that i try not to get involved in, because to me it proves beyond question that "none are so blind as those who will not see".
but i have to answer now because of another answer you got. the answerer asks who is going to benefit from the theory that global warming is natural and cannot be affected by man, and promptly answers no one. well, i beg to differ. a lot more people benefit from this belief that those who stand to benefit by the alternative. who are they?
how about the oil industry? and oil byproducts? where would they be if suddenly people were turning to alternative fuels? how about car manufacturers? can't have people trading in their Fords for a bicycle. how about mining companies, and companies that buy and sell exotic woods and generally profit by deforestation? think about all the implications and the list goes on and on. how about this one? how about the governments of the world? think about how oil affects the balance of power in the world at large.

who are you going to believe? the oil industry or the environmentalists? while i do agree that they sometimes go off on some strange tangents and often are rather extremist in their solutions to problems, at least the environmentalists are thinking of the greater good, not the greater profit.

Answer 2

yea its true. It really is crazy. Its a great movie. You should watch it a few times. Theres so much good (but scary) info in it, its hard to catch all of it in just one sitting.

That movie has really changed the way I think about life and the way we all live it. We have to start doing something today. But to be honest. I don't think we (as a country and world) won't act on it soon enough. It will be too late. I think the answer to global warming is education. If we focus on educating the next generations we will be that much closer of achieving hybrid and fusion and fuel cell technologies that will help the environment drastically as well as reduce or even become independent from fossil fuels.

You should tell your teacher to have a discussion with the class about this stuff
I love discussing this kind of stuff in class.
Have fun!

Answer 3

This is not an uncommon global occurrence. Yes the average temperature is on the rise, however this has happened before and will continue to happen regardless of what we do. Since the end of the last ice age even there have been higher average temperatures on earth than there are right now. Sea levels change and it causes problems but humanity will need to adapt. You think global warming is scary think about when the next ice age hits. The earth is about due for another anytime and the last one covered over half our continent in ice. Also in earths history the magnetic poles have reversed they aren't sure how it happens but I guarantee it would get messy for us. In short we can't prevent or affect a lot of potential problems. Politicians love to scare us in to listening to their messages. The sun could explode tomorrow and take our solar system and puny little planet with it. Don't worry about things you can't control. Lastly the only thing guaranteed to kill you is being alive.

Answer 4

Yes, I have also watched this movie for science class. disturbing isn't it? especially to us (Americans,) who use up a quarter of the world's natural resources, yet all we care about are terrorists. Sure, they are a big problem, but they have been happening for years, and still we haven't helped any nations, yet we don't do anything about global warming. And when (not if, when) our glaciers and icecaps melt. Millions of people will have to find new places to live, and us as a population will act like we had no idea what was going on.... (and yes, to answer your question, all information is complete fact, and not exaggerated.)

Answer 5

The wattsupwiththat article asks which idea is in problem because of flat temperatures? the answer is the single which announces that climate is inspired by ability of in undemanding words one ingredient. Realists do no longer make easily a kind of declare about carbon dioxide, inspite of the actuality that denialists declare that about the solar. OM That sounds like the emails the East Angia hackers released.

Answer 6

I would watch it with an open mind, its trendy right now to be eco-whatever they callthemselves.. Al says 20 feet the UN says 17 inches theres a bit of difference there, do some research on the pro and agaist readings make your own informed decision, teachers seem to be eating it all up, most do bend a bit to the left though and unfortunatly regardless of their affiliation they do end up influncing people

Answer 7

I am so confused by seeing comments on both sides that I am not sure what to believe. The Al Gore movie scares me, it is terrible if this is going to happen.

Answer 8

I suggest you watch the movie 2 x's. First, just take it at face value. You know, the U.S. is going to destroy the world...blah blah blah. Then watch it again from a political standpoint...financial standpoint...Who will benefit from scaring everyone to death about Global Warming?
How about Environmental lobbyists, eco-friendly companies, liberal democrats, people in favor of strict government regulation of everything, people in favor of taxing American industry out of existance...

Who benefits from the other arguement...that the earth's climate changes are not extreme and are part of natural cycles in existance since the beginning and cannot be reversed or stopped by human action? Noone. So why are their as many scientists and experts who agree with this?

Question EVERYTHING about MOTIVE. Who is telling you what for what purpose?

Answer 9

it's not as simple as gore makes it seem, but the gist is true. it is scary

Answer 10

I've just finished writing a report about global warming. It addresses all the points you've raised and many others. I've copied it below and it's just gone online at http://profend.com/answers/global_warming.html - reading the online version is a lot easier.


GLOBAL WARMING
===============

What’s going on with global warming and climate change?

We’re told global warming is the biggest threat to humanity, that life on this planet will alter radically and that we must act now to save ourselves from ourselves.

We’re also told global warming is a myth, a conspiracy created by governments and scientists, that the world is actually cooling and that global warming, if real, would be beneficial.

Sometimes it seems the world is full of global warming experts. So many people ‘know’ the truth; but really so few know what they’re talking about. All too often opinion is passed off as fact whilst ‘facts’ materialise out of thin air. And somewhere under the mountain of rubbish lies the truth.

This answer should help you find the truth, it’s not necessarily my opinion but it is based on 23 years of studying climate and cites over 100 sources including NASA, the World Health Organization, the BBC, the Royal Academy, the United Nations, and several universities, governments and independent media. All statements are corroberated by independent and reliable sources.

It’s a long answer so I’ve broken down into sub-divided sections.

Section 1 – Introduction
Section 2 – Is global warming real?
Section 3 – An unprecedented rise in temperature
Section 4 – The causes of global warming
Section 5 – The effects of global warming
Section 6 – Looking to the future
Section 7 – Global warming confusion
Section 8 – Combating global warming
Section 9 – Some common questions
Section 10 – Appendix


1A - INTRODUCTION
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A lot of what you read and hear about global warming is rubbish. Both the pro and anti lobby are responsible for distorting the truth, taking things out of context, fabricating ‘evidence’ and blatant lies. There are compelling cases for and against global warming. In providing this answer I’ve avoided opinions and based it upon proven or accepted facts from both sides of the debate. Armed with the unbiased information I hope you can make your own informed decisions.


1B - A LITTLE KNOWLEDGE IS A DANGEROUS THING
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Many people have strong opinions about global warming / climate change but, with all due respect, most don’t know that much about it. For many, the media is the primary source of information but this tends to focus on the more newsworthy stories whilst ignoring the broader picture. It’s rather like taking a few pieces of a jigsaw and deciding what the completed picture looks like; it doesn’t help that the global warming picture has pieces missing from it anyway.

This response doesn’t provide all the pieces of the puzzle, it would be far too long and complicated, but it does focus on the key areas. All statements are backed up with citations and by following the links you can find a great deal more information.


1C - REFERENCES
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[C] – Citations, sources of info used. Listed in the appendix.
[D] – Definitions of certain words. Listed in the appendix.
[M] – More info on external sites. Links given in the appendix.
[S] – Supplementary information. More details in the appendix.


1D - AVOIDING CONFUSION
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People interpret ‘global warming’ differently and this can render answers invalid if they’re not addressing the issue raised. A common question such as ‘is global warming happening’ can illicit a ‘yes’ from one person and a ‘no’ from another person. Two conflicting answers, both could be correct depending how the question has been addressed.

The term ‘global warming’ is frequently used in respect of the effect human activities have on our climate; this is just one part of a larger picture. It’s useful to actually define some common terms [M1].

GLOBAL WARMING
Global warming is the process by which the world heats up; there are two key components – natural and manmade.

NATURAL GLOBAL WARMING
The earth goes through cycles spanning many thousands of years in which there is warming and cooling. These are explained in more detail later.

MANMADE GLOBAL WARMING
Anthropogenic (or manmade) global warming is the effect human activities have on the warming of the earth.

CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change refers to how the climate of the world is changing. It’s not the same as global warming. In a nutshell, global warming is the cause and climate change is the result.

WEATHER AND CLIMATE
Some people confuse weather with climate. Weather is what we experience everyday, it’s short term and localised. Climate is long term and on a worldwide scale.



2 – IS GLOBAL WARMING REAL
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We know the world is warming up, on this the scientists are agreed. The question isn’t so much whether the world is warming but what’s causing it, how much is attributable to natural causes and how much is attributable to human activity.

AS A NATURAL PHENOMENA
There’s no disputing that the world is warming up, this is a long established fact. Since the creation of Earth some 4.5 billion years ago there have been many warming and cooling cycles. Over the course of the last 18,000 years the world has been in a warming cycle and has heated up by approximately 9°C (16°F) [C3] this warming brought about the end of the last ice age [S2].

On a much larger time-scale the world is in a general cooling phase and has been for about 50 million years [C4], this in itself is part of a much larger cycle of long term cooling and warming [C5].

AS A MAN-MADE PHENOMENA
If there were no life on Earth it would still be warming. What we’ve seen in the last couple of hundred years is an unprecedented rise in temperatures [C6] as can be seen on these graphs http://whyfiles.org/218glo_warm/images/variations.jpg and http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/c/c1/2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png

There is much controversy and debate surrounding mankind’s contribution to global warming and climate change. The IPCC [D4] has conducted the most detailed examination of climate change to date and concludes that human cause is ‘very likely’ (more than 90%) [C7] [M4].



3 - AN UNPRECEDENTED RISE IN TEMPERATURE
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EXPECTED RISE IN TEMPERATURES
During Earth’s current warming phase we’ve seen temperatures steadily rise by 9°C over the last 18,000 years [C3], a rise of one two thousandth of a degree Celsius per year (0.0005°C), this can be considered to be the natural rate at which the earth is warming.

THE 100 YEARS FROM 1905 TO 2005
In 1905 the average global temperature was 13.71°C, in 2005 it was 14.53°C [C8] [S3]
Expected natural increase 0.05°C
Actual increase 0.82°C
Average annual increase of 0.0082°C
Warming 16 times faster than expected

THE 50 YEARS FROM 1955 TO 2005
In 1955 the average global temperature was 13.98°C, in 2005 it was 14.53°C [C8] [S3]
Expected natural increase 0.025°C
Actual increase 0.55°C
Average annual increase of 0.011°C
Warming 22 times faster than expected

THE 25 YEARS FROM 1980 TO 2005
In 1980 the average global temperature was 14.14°C, in 2005 it was 14.53°C [C8] [S3]
Expected natural increase 0.0125°C
Actual increase 0.39°C
Average annual increase of 0.0195°C
Warming 39 times faster than expected



4 – THE CAUSES OF GLOBAL WARMING
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Global warming is the result of two contributory factors – the greenhouse effect and solar variation. Both are natural occurrences and cause Earth’s temperature to warm and cool. Since the Industrial Revolution [S4] the emissions of greenhouse gases has risen dramatically [C9] and there has been a corresponding rise in global temperatures [C10].


4A - GREENHOUSE EFFECT
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WHAT IS THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT?
The atmosphere acts like a blanket trapping heat and keeping Earth at a habitable temperature, it’s this retaining of heat that is referred to as the Greenhouse Effect [M5]. The greenhouse effect is caused by greenhouse gases [M2] that trap heat from the sun, the more greenhouse gases there are the more heat is retained.


GREENHOUSE GASES - NATURAL
The primary natural greenhouse gases are water vapour (H20), carbon dioxide (C02), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (NO) and tetraflouromethane (CF4) [C1].

Water vapour is the largest component greenhouse gas and is almost entirely natural [S1] but it’s not very good at retaining heat. Most greenhouse gas is naturally occurring. Without any greenhouses gases our atmosphere would retain considerably less heat and Earth would be some 30°C colder [C2].

As with temperatures, there is a natural cycle in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. Ice core samples extending back some 650,000 years [C12] show the minimum amount of atmospheric CO2 to have been around 190 ppmv [D2] and the maximum about 300 ppmv [C13]. The worry is that the current levels of CO2 are considerably higher at around 385 ppmv [C9]


GREENHOUSE GASES - ANTHROPOGENIC
The manmade greenhouse gases include the naturally occurring ones as well as synthetic gases consisting of carbon and halogens [D1]. The group of gases called chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s) are perhaps the best known of these. Many of the manmade greenhouse gases are also responsible for ozone depletion [M3].


CHANGING LEVELS OF GREENHOUSE GASES
Excluding water vapour, the most influential greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide and methane, respectively these account for 99% and 0.5% of greenhouse gases [C11]. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution there has been a 31% increase in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and a 150% increase in the amount of methane [C14]. Although methane occurs in much smaller quantities it is far more effective at retaining heat and is responsible for between 4 and 9% of the greenhouse effect, CO2 is responsible for between 9 and 26% [C15].

The year on year trend is an increasing amount of CO2 deposited in the atmosphere from virtually nil 150 years ago to 2 billion tons a year 50 years ago to today’s level of around 7 billion tons a year [C12]. The current level of CO2 in the atmosphere is around 385 ppmv and increasing [C9], this is the highest it’s been since the Cenozoic era some 60 million years ago [C17].

As the amount of greenhouse gas increases so does the temperature, the link between the two is a direct correlation [C18].


GREENHOUSE GASES - SOURCES
Three quarters of the greenhouse gas emissions for which humans are responsible result from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and much of the remainder results from farming and agricultural activities.

The largest contributors of all greenhouse gases are power generation (21.3%), manufacturing and other industrial processed (16.8%), fuel for transportation (14.0%), farming and agriculture (12.5%), extraction and processing of fossil fuels (11.3%), domestic and commercial use (10.3%), land use, deforestation and other biomass burning (10%) [C19].

Carbon dioxide accounts for 72% of all man-made greenhouse gases, methane 18% and nitrous oxide 9% - a total of 99% between them. Power generation and industry contribute just over half the total carbon dioxide emissions whereas farming and agriculture are the primary producers of methane (46.6%) and nitrous oxide (88.0%) [C19].

Fossil fuels are hydrocarbons meaning they’re made up of carbon and hydrogen. When they’re burned they react with the oxygen in the air and the primary byproducts are water and carbon dioxide. These fuels are used in power generation, to heat homes and offices, to power factories, to drive our vehicles and many more uses.

Other manmade causes of greenhouse gases include deforestation [S5], fertilisers, air conditioning units, fridges and freezers, numerous industrial and chemical processes, fire suppressants, coal mining, effluent, landfill sites, livestock and rice cultivation [C20].

There are natural causes of greenhouse gases including volcanic activity, the seas and oceans, natural decay of plants and animals and the natural melting of ice caps.


4B – SOLAR VARIATION
Solar variations are changes in the amount of heat energy emitted from the sun and there are many reasons for this. The primary variation is caused by solar cycles, a pattern that repeats itself at 11 year intervals. However, the difference between the highest and lowest output is tiny, about 0.1% [C22] but it is enough to contribute to the warming of the planet. There are many other cycles that the sun goes through ranging from 22 years to several thousand years [C22]; there may be longer ones that haven’t yet been detected.

The heat energy received from the sun is 1366 W/m² (Watts per square metre) and it’s estimated that since 1750 this has increased by 0.3 W/m² whilst during the same time, anthropogenic global warming has contributed a further 2.4 W/m² [C23].

In the short term at least, solar variation has little effect on global warming and climate change. Over many thousands and millions of years the changes are significant and together with other astronomical factors [S6] can explain global warming and cooling cycles over periods of thousands of years.


4C – FEEDBACK OR COMPOUND PROCESS
Global warming is a self-perpetuating cycle. If we take melting ice as an example, as the ice melts it releases greenhouse gases from within the ice and trapped underneath the ice; the melting of Siberian permafrost is a good example of this [C21]. Further, as the ice melts it exposes the land beneath and forms melt-water lakes, both of which absorb more solar heat radiation than the ice did. The result of which is that the earth warms further causing more ice to melt and so the cycle continues.



5 - THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
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The effects of global warming are wide ranging, some are quite apparent such as the melting of glaciers but others such as the shifting of deserts are subtler. There are both direct and indirect consequences, for example, warmer temperatures are a direct consequence whereas population migration is an indirect consequence.


EFFECTS ON WEATHER
An increase in the amount of precipitation, mainly because the hotter atmosphere will evaporate more water from the seas and oceans which subsequently falls as rain, snow etc [C24] [S7].

Hurricanes and storms will become more frequent, widespread and severe, in the last 30 years the proportion of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has almost doubled [C25]. Once exclusively confined to the northern hemisphere there have recently been hurricanes in the southern hemisphere, most notably in Brazil. The leading edge over which hurricanes can strike has increased by 1600km (1000 miles) [C26].

During the same time span there has been a sharp rise in the number of extreme weather phenomenon. The changing weather has resulted in more storms, droughts, floods and heavier rainfall; these in turn cause erosion, famine, disease etc [C27].


DESERTIFICATION
Shifting weather patterns mean some areas receive less rainfall; the ground becomes barren and unable to sustain crops. In many parts of the world the layer of topsoil is both very thin and very poor. The dry, dusty soil is readily blown away and the area becomes desert. African and Asian countries are particularly hard hit [C28] [S8].


AGRICULTURAL IMPACT
For the reasons mentioned above there will be a major impact on agriculture. Rising sea levels (see below) will also impact resulting in the loss of large areas of agricultural land, the consequences of which will be population migration, famine and / or the need to import food from elsewhere. Again, it will be the African and Asian countries that are hardest hit with crop production falling by up to a third [C29].

Global warming can be a doubled edged sword. It has already resulted in the melting of a million square kilometres of Siberian permafrost, an area four times the size of the UK and covering the world’s largest peat bog [C21]. The melting has created land suitable for crops but at the same time has causing billions of tons of methane gas to be released from the peat, which in turn contributes to further global warming. A further consequence is the loss of over 1,000 lakes but the creation of many new ones [C30].


RISING SEA LEVELS
Sea levels are rising faster now than at any time since the melting of the glaciers that marked the end of the last ice age. As the glaciers melted sea levels rose by some 120 metres (400 feet) but for the last few thousand years sea levels have been almost constant rising only 10 centimetres (4 inches) per thousand years [C31] [M6].

Since the onset of global warming the seas have risen much faster. A hundred years ago they were rising by 1mm a year, today they are rising by 3mm a year and indications are that they will rise much quicker in the future [C32]. Sea levels are rising 30 times faster now than they were before industrialisation and the onset of global warming.

In some places the rate of rise is much more dramatic. The Sundarman Delta has seen levels rising by more than 30mm a year [C33], millions have already been forced to leave their homes [C34] and the Carteret Islands in the Pacific Ocean are currently being evacuated due to rising sea levels [C35] making this the first complete land mass to be lost to rising sea levels [S9].

It’s estimated that meltwater running off the Greenland ice sheet will in itself cause a rise of between 20 and 50mm a year [C36]. In time this will swamp cities including London, New York and Miami. Low lying areas such as Bangladesh, much of the European and American coasts and island groups including the Seychelles and Maldives would be submerged [C37].

The two main causes of sea level rises are the expansion of the world’s seas and oceans as they warm up and the melting of the ice caps.

The temperature of the seas and oceans are rising faster then ever [C38] and like anything that heats up, they’re expanding. At the same time ice sheets are melting and releasing water into the oceans.


MELTING OF ICE CAPS
The Arctic ice cap is floating; the mass of water it contains is already displacing an equal amount of seawater so even if it were to melt entirely there would be no change in sea levels.

However, Antarctica is a continent, a land mass, it isn’t floating and any melting here adds to the sea level as does melting of ice sheets and glaciers in places such as Greenland.

The edges of the Antarctic Ice Sheet are breaking off and collapsing into the sea. One of the biggest breaks occurred in 2002 when the Larsen B Ice Shelf broke off. This huge mass of ice covered 3250 square kilometres and weighed half a trillion tons [C39].


POPULATION MIGRATION
For the reasons mentioned in this section, large numbers of people are going to find it increasingly difficult to remain in their present locations and in many cases it will be impossible. In Bangladesh some 13 million people will be forced to move if the sea level rises by just one metre [C40] and in the US tens of millions will be affected particularly along the north east coast, Florida, Louisiana and California [C41]. Globally it is expected that hundreds of millions of people will need to relocate or emigrate [C42].


MARINE ENVIRONMENT
The world’s oceans absorb carbon dioxide, a little less than half the amount we have produced – about 150 billion tons in the last 200 years [C43] [S11]. Carbon dioxide dissolves in water to form carbonic acid and this is affecting the alkalinity of the oceans. Normally they have a pH of 8.3 [D3] but this has been reduced to 8.2 and is falling, it’s thought that by the end of the century the pH could drop to 7.7 [C82].

Many forms of marine life are highly sensitive to the level of alkalinity. The formation of corals is being affected and plankton, which forms the basis of the marine food chain, is also very sensitive.

The increasing levels of carbon dioxide make it harder for many species of fish and shellfish to breathe and reproduce. Changes in the ecology and chemistry of the seas and oceans reduce their ability to absorb CO2, which consequently increases the rate of global warming [C44].


ECOSYSTEMS
Global warming affects animals and plants as well as humans.

Parts of Antarctica are now covered in grass [C45] and there is a massive migration of animals towards the polar regions, these migrations extend an average of 6.1km further from the equator each decade [C46]. Butterflies have extended their territory by some 200km further north in Europe and North America [C42].

In the Arctic the habitat of polar bears and emperor penguins is being threatened. The waters of the Hudson Bay for example, are now ice free for three weeks more each year than they were 30 years ago. Polar bears are now starving because they need to venture onto the frozen ice to hunt food. In another 10 or 20 years there may no longer be polar bears in this region and within a hundred years they could be extinct [C47].

The ecosystems are interlinked, if one species is affected it will undoubtedly affect others which in turn will affect others. The enforced migration of one animal for example, may result in the starvation of another which in turn could have other knock on effects and so ad infinitum [S10].

The most extensive report into global warming and climate change predicts that up to 40% of animal species could become extinct due to global warming [C48].


MOUNTAIN ENVIRONMENTS
Glaciers are recognised as one of the best indicators of climate change and in many parts of the world are melting faster than has been known before [C49]. In the last 100 years 50% of the world’s glaciers outside the polar regions have melted [C50]. The effects of glacial melt include flooding, landslides, avalanches and loss of habitat. In some mountainous regions melt water provides a year round water supply and without the glaciers there will be near drought conditions [C49, C51]

Glacial retreat is happening at an incredible rate in many parts of the world. In Greenland the Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier is retreating by 40 metres a day and will soon disappear altogether [C52]. Several other glaciers are retreating by 30 to 40 metres a day.


ECONOMY
The economic effect is staggering. Increased adverse weather in itself could cost 1% of the worldwide GDP [D5] and a temperature rise of 2 or 3°C would reduce global economic output by 3% [C53]. In percentage terms these aren’t very big numbers but in terms of dollars the cost runs into trillions.

Insurance premiums are rising in line with the increased number of claims. The Association of British Insurers notes a 100% rise in weather related claims in recent years and states that climate change is already seriously impacting on the insurance industry [C54].


OTHER EFFECTS
There are many other effects including disruption to transportation, loss of sea ports, forest fires, methane release from hydrates, the shutting down of the Gulf Stream, impact on development, the need for greater flood defences, spread of disease and drought. These and other concerns are addressed in the Wikipedia article ‘Effects of Global Warming’ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming .



6 - LOOKING TO THE FUTURE
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By analysing historical weather and climate patterns it’s possible to make predictions about what the future has in store. This isn’t an exact science as many factors need to be taken into consideration and different prediction models produce different results.

The biggest report into climate change and global warming was conducted by the IPCC [D4] and concluded that temperature rises of between 1.8°C and 4.0° should be expected by the end of the 21st century [C62]. Many other organisation have conducted similar results with expected rises over the same period of between 2.2°C and 4.8°C with most predicting rises in the range of 2 to 3°C [C63].


HEALTH IMPLICATIONS
In 2007 one person is dying every three minutes as a result of global warming, this figure is expected to double by 2020 [C55]. The World Health Organisation (WHO) predicts that rising temperatures will result in an additional 300,000 deaths and 10 million illnesses a year by 2030 [C71]. This is in addition to the tens of millions of additional cases of malaria that the WHO expects to see [C72].


ECOLOGICAL IMPACT
A quarter of the species of animals and plants could be extinct by 2050 [C56]. More than three million square kilometres of Arctic sea ice has melted threatening the habitat of polar bears, experts predict that their numbers will ‘plummet’ [C57]; the survival of grizzly bears is also threatened [C58]. Other species that are threatened include penguin, turtle, caribou, walrus, plankton, krill, whale, crab and seal [C59].


ADVERSE WEATHER
In recent years there has been an 80% increase in the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes. Along with cyclones, tornados and other storms the frequency looks set to keep increasing [C61]. The UK Met Office predicts a nine-fold increase in the extent of flooding within the next 50 years [C60].

In 2003 a heatwave in Europe, one of many in recent years, claimed up to 50,000 lives [C64], predictions are that the annual number of heat related deaths will increase significantly [C65].


DROUGHT AND FAMINE
The heat is likely to greatly increase the number of forest fires, reduce timber production, impact on agricultural land and lead to more insect infestation which in turn impacts on crop production and human health [C66].

Rising temperatures have a huge impact on food production, a 1°C rise equates to a 10% loss in grain production, areas already facing food shortages will be hardest hit [73]. Warmer temperatures create severe drought conditions; billions of people will be affected by contaminated water, a lack of water or both [74], in China and south east Asia alone hundreds of millions will be affected [75].


RISING SEA LEVELS
Rising sea levels have already impacted hard on many island and coastal communities including the forced evacuation of their populations. Areas affected include Kenya, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, Bangladesh, Papua New Guinea, Micronesia, Maldives, Antigua and Bermuda [C67]. Sea levels have been rising for some time [C68] and predictions indicate further rises of between 200 and 600mm by the end of the century [C69]. In the US this would affect many coastal regions especially the coastlines of Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, cities affected would include Boston, New York, Charleston, Miami and New Orleans [C70].


OTHER EFFECTS
The effects are wide ranging, some are already happening and are expected to get worse, others are likely to happen with the severity dependent on how much the earth’s global temperature rises by.

Some of the other impacts of global warming include: arctic warming, increased power outages, marine food chain disruption, changes to bird migration patterns, more wildfires, erosion, desertification, disappearing beaches, damage to tundra regions, impact on ozone layer, insect infestation, threat to boreal forests, coastal erosion, threat to mountain environments, loss of wetland and marshland habitats, decline in bird population, thawing of permafrost, increased acidity of oceans, release of further greenhouse gases, increased allergens (asthma etc), coral destruction and bleaching, loss of ocean conveyor belts (Gulf Stream) etc, loss of Arctic sea ice, impact on winter sports [C59].



7 – GLOBAL WARMING CONFUSION
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There’s a lot of confusion surrounding global warming and it can sometimes be hard to separate fact from fiction, evidence from fabrication, truth from lie. Some people say the world is warming up, some say it’s not and some say it’s cooling down – who do you believe?

Below I’ve addressed some of the most common errors people make when discussing global warming.


GLOBAL WARMING ISN’T HAPPENING
Claim: There’s no such thing as global warming.
Explanation: I suspect when someone says this what they actually mean is that they don’t believe mankind has contributed to global warming. There’s no dispute that global warming is real. There is dispute as to how much of the current warming can be attributed to human activities and the consensus is that the current warming is ‘very likely’ due to human activities [C7].


SUNSPOT ACTIVITY
Claim: Global warming is caused by sunspot activity.
Explanation: Sunspots occur in an 11 year cycle whereas global warming has been happening for 150 years or more. Sunspot activity does cool and warm the earth (and other planets) but by a very small amount. The difference between the minimum and maximum output of heat from the sun is just 0.07% [C78].


SOLAR ACTIVITY
Claim: Global warming is the result of solar activity.
Explanation: Solar activity is a contributing factor but even at it’s most extreme it only contributes a small proportion to the total warming. Over a period of thousands of years it can have a significant effect (both warming and cooling) but the rise in global temperatures in the last 200 years far exceeds anything possible from solar activity. See section 4B for more info.


THE EARTH IS NEARER THE SUN
Claim: Global warming is caused because the earth is nearer the sun than it used to be.
Explanation: The earth moves in an elliptical orbit around the sun, at certain times of the year it’s closer to the sun but then moves away again; this is a seasonal variation. The earth is actually moving ever so slightly further from the sun [C81].


MELTING ICE CAPS 1
Claim: The ice caps are floating; when they melt they’re not adding to the water already in the oceans.
Explanation: The Arctic ice cap is floating; when it melts sea levels are unaffected. The Antarctic ice cap isn’t floating so any melting here adds to the water in the seas and oceans. See ‘Rising Sea Levels’ in section 5 for more details.


MELTING ICE CAPS 2
Claim: Ice is less dense than water, if it melts the sea level will fall.
Explanation: Ice is indeed less dense than water (water has a mass 1.000 g/cm³, ice is about 0.920 g/cm³) [83]. The ice displaces water equivalent to it’s own mass, when floating ice melts it has no effect on the water level – it’s not the amount of water that’s changed just the amount of space it occupies. See also Melting Ice Caps 1 (above).


ORBITAL VARIATION
Claim: Changes in the earths orbit are the cause of global warming.
Explanation: What’s been referred to here is the Milankovitch Cycle, this relates to the way the earth ‘wobbles’. Rather like a spinning top it wobbles slightly up and down (precession), wobbles slightly on it’s axis (axial tilt) and wobbles in its orbit around the sun (eccentricity). These cycles occur over tens of thousands of years and can be mathematically predicted with extreme accuracy. Such movements do contribute to global warming and cooling but over very long periods of time [C84].


GLOBAL COOLING
Claim: Scientists use to tell us the world was cooling; now they say it’s warming. They don’t know what they’re talking about.
Explanation: In the 1970’s some scientists were studying the Milankovitch Cycle and accurately predicted that it would cause the world to cool down (which it will – see Orbital Variation above). The scientists didn’t come together and say that the world was cooling. In fact, what the scientists said about global cooling was actually correct [C85].


VOLCANOES 1
Claim: Volcanoes cause global warming.
Explanation: Volcanoes actually cause global cooling. The massive quantities of volcanic ash and dust that are ejected into the atmosphere block sunlight and cause the earth to cool [C86]. After the huge eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 the earth cooled by 0.5°C, as the dust settled over the next few years the cooling effect lessened.


VOLCANOES 2
Claim: Volcanoes produce more greenhouse gases in a year than mankind does in x number of years (x varies but is often 100).
Explanation: Man puts 150 times the amount of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere each year than do all the volcanoes on Earth [C87].


GOVERNMENT CONSPIRACY
Claim: Global warming is nothing but a government conspiracy
Explanation: Global warming has been around far longer than it has been a political issue. Carbon dioxide emissions, the greenhouse effect and global warming have been known about within the scientific community since 1896 [C88]. It wasn’t until 93 years later when, in November 1989, Lady Thatcher the Prime Minister of the UK addressed a United Nations convention and put global warming on the political agenda [C89].


THERE’S NO SIGN OF GLOBAL WARMING HERE
Claim: If global warming is real then why is it so cold, why is there so much snow here...
Explanation: Weather and global warming are two very different things. Weather is local and short term whereas climate change is global and long term. As has been established in section 3, the recent rise in global temperatures has been about 0.02°C a year; on a year-by-year basis this will have very little effect on the weather. There will continue to be snow and cold weather for millennia to come.


EXCUSE FOR RAISING TAXES
Claim: Global warming is just an excuse to raise taxes.
Explanation: Undoubtedly some governments will use global warming and climate change as a reason for increasing taxes and imposing new ones. In some cases these may be justified to offset the costs of global warming (see Economy in section 5). See also Government Conspiracy above.


WEATHER FORECASTS
Claim: Scientists can’t even predict the weather, how can they predict global warming.
Explanation: Weather and climate are both very complicated but they’re two different things. Weather forecasts can predict it will be raining or will be sunny tomorrow and much of the time they’re right. Climate tells us that it will be warmer in summer than in winter or that Monsoon rains will fall in India. We know these things from studying historical weather records; these show trends that allow climate forecasts to be made. Predicting the effects of global warming uses the same principles


PETITION AGAINST GLOBAL WARMING
Claim: Large numbers of scientists (it varies from hundreds to tens of thousands) have signed a petition against global warming.
Explanation: There are two well known such petitions, one is the Leipzig Declaration and the other is ‘Oregon Petition’, both have been widely discredited. Øjvind Hesselager, a Danish broadcaster examined the credentials of the signatories to the Leipzig Declaration and concluded “only 20 of the names on the list had any scientific connection with the study of climate change, and some of those names were known to have obtained grants from the oil and fuel industry” [C90].

The Oregon Petition has some 19,700 signatories of which 17,800 are ‘verified’. There are serious concerns about the way in which the signatures were acquired. One examination of the petition by Scientific American found that many of the names were not of scientists, of those that were scientists some had never heard of the petition, of those who originally signed a significant number stated they wouldn’t sign again [C91]. The man behind the petition is Professor Frederick Seitz, an oil executive previously employed by R J Reynolds Tobacco to counter claims that smoking was harmful [C92].


WARMING ON MARS
Claim: Mars is warming which proves global warming is a natural effect of the sun.
Explanation: This has been mentioned several times of late and stems from a NASA report entitled ‘Mars is Melting’ [C93]. The report states “The polar cap is receding because the springtime sun is shining on it” and goes on to explain how the seasons on Mars cause the polar ice caps to melt and reform. Global warming isn’t once mentioned in the article.



8 - COMBATING GLOBAL WARMING
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There are many things individuals can do to reduce their carbon emissions and reduce the impact of global warming. Living in a tent, travelling by bike and stopping breathing are three steps that could be taken. There are less drastic measures.

FUEL EFFICIENT VEHICLE
Driving a more fuel-efficient vehicle makes a big difference. Each gallon of gasoline burned produces 10kg (20 pounds) of carbon dioxide [C94]. A motorist driving 15,000 miles a year will produce 7500kg of carbon emissions by driving a 20mpg vehicle whereas a vehicle returning 30mpg will produce 5000kg, 2½ tons less each year plus a reduced fuel bill [S12].

DRIVING ECONOMICALLY
You can improve your vehicles fuel efficiency by as much as 30%. Drive gently avoiding harsh braking and sudden accelerating, drive at a steady speed, keep tyres correctly inflated, don’t carry excess weight, use the correct gear, use cruise control, remove bike and ski racks when not in use, keep your vehicle serviced, turn the engine off when stopped or waiting [C95].

DRIVE LESS
Walk or cycle short journeys – no fuel emissions, healthier and saves money. Stagger journeys where possible to avoid rush hour traffic and hold ups. Use public transport.

HOME ENERGY EFFICIENCY
When replacing appliances buy energy efficient ones [M7], turn off electrical appliances when not in use, don’t use the standby option. Use energy efficient light bulbs and switch off when not in use.

Wash clothes at a lower temperature, modern machines and detergents are just as effective at lower temperatures. Dry your clothes outdoors instead of in a tumble drier. Wash in full loads at a time.

Insulate your home and block draughts around doors and windows. In the UK this is free to many people.

Turn your heating and air conditioning down. A 1°C difference will be barely noticeable but will produce a substantial saving in terms of energy used.

Buy electricity generated from renewable sources and consider installing a renewable energy system to lower your electricity costs and reduce pollution.

Use rechargeable batteries; don’t leave rechargers on for longer than is needed.

Buy local food where possible, much food is flown or shipped half way around the world before it reaches us.

Recycle waste and avoid buying products with excessive packaging. Sign up with mail preferential services to stop junk mail.

Don’t have your fridge and freezer set lower than they need to be, regularly defrost your freezer, don’t put hot food into your fridge or freezer.

There’s lots more tips and advice on these sites...
http://www.nrdc.org/air/energy/genergy.asp
http://www.est.org.uk/myhome/
http://www.carbontrust.co.uk/energy
http://www.energyquest.ca.gov/saving_energy/index.html
http://www.energy.gov/energyefficiency/index.htm
http://www.ase.org/
http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/Environmentandgreenerliving/Energyandwatersaving/DG_064371
http://www.roughguides.com/savingenergy/
http://www.srpnet.com/menu/energy.aspx


CLIMATE ENGINEERING
Ambitious schemes have been proposed that would manipulate our climate including the building of a giant sunscreen to block out the sun’s heat and artificial trees to extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. If these schemes are successful they could prevent global warming from getting worse may be reverse the warming trend.

Read more about these schemes here... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/6298507.stm or watch a short movie presentation http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_6360000/newsid_6364700/6364731.stm?bw=bb&mp=rm



9 - SOME COMMON QUESTIONS
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WILL WE ALL DIE BECAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING?
Certainly not in the short term. The very worst case scenario is a global temperature rise of 11°C in the next couple of hundred years with some places locally experiencing a 20°C rise [C77 or C78]. This would have massive implications and at least half of the world’s population would have to relocate to areas where the heat was tolerable, water was available and crops could be grown. This is extremely unlikely and the most detailed report into climate change predicts rises of between 1.8 and 4.0°C in the next hundred years [C62].


WILL GLOBAL WARMING LEAD TO WARS?
This is a possibility but it seems unlikely. As land, energy resources, water and other resources become scarcer some countries may resort to extreme measures, such as invasion, in an attempt to obtain them. Some countries may develop a nuclear capability in order to defend themselves. A secret US defence report suggests that war and anarchy could be a result of global warming [C79]. At the time of the report the US was one of the only countries in the world that still denied global warming, it now accepts


WHY DOES THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION DENY GW?
It no longer does after having done a U-turn in the 2007 State of the Union address [C80]. The reasons for performing a U-turn are a political issue and a different matter altogether.



10 - APPENDIX
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Further information including the sources used in compiling this article. Some of the links below are to PDF files, most computers will open these, if not you will need to download the free Adobe Reader (http://www.adobe.com/)


10A - CITATIONS
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[C1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_list_of_greenhouse_gases
[C2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect
[C3] http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Ice_Age_Temperature_Rev_png
[C4] http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:65_Myr_Climate_Change_Rev_png
[C5] http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Phanerozoic_Climate_Change_Rev_png
[C6] http://whyfiles.org/218glo_warm/
[C7] http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6321351.stm
[C8] http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Temp/2006Temp_data.htm
[C9] http://www.bom.gov.au/info/climate/change/gallery/25.shtml
[C10] http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:1000_Year_Temperature_Comparison_png
[C11] http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html
[C12] http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/n/a/2005/11/24/national/w135801S21.DTL
[C13] http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr_Rev_png
[C14] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas#Increase_of_greenhouse_gases
[C15] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
[C16] http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Global_Carbon_Emission_by_Type_png
[C17] http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v406/n6797/abs/406695a0.html
[C18] http://www.architecture2030.org/current_situation/current2.html
[C19a] http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Greenhouse_Gas_by_Sector_png
[C19b] http://www.mnp.nl/edgar/model/v32ft2000edgar/
[C20] http://globalwarming.enviroweb.org/ishappening/sources/index.html
[C21] http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1546824,00.html
[C22] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation
[C23] http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/fig6-6.htm
[C24] http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/008.htm
[C25] ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdf (PDF file)
[C26] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming
[C27] http://yosemite.epa.gov/OAR/globalwarming.nsf/webprintview/ActionsIndustryInsurance.html
[C28] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desertification
[C29] http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1517935,00.html
[C30] http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1503170,00.html
[C31] http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/425.htm
[C32] http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/426.htm
[C33] http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/3102948.stm
[C34] http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/5344002.stm
[C35] http://web.mac.com/pipstarr/iWeb/starr.tv/Climate/1389EF06-0A02-4BC3-A039-AD98E7B4E4DF.html
[C36] http://www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/research/other/climate_change_and_sea_level/climate_change_and_sea_level.htm
[C37] http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/04/0408_040408_greenlandicemelt.html
[C38] http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/295/5558/1275?ijkey=nFvdOLNYlMNZU&keytype=ref&siteid=sci
[C39] http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1880566.stm
[C40] http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/pages/rising-seas.html
[C41] http://www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/research/other/climate_change_and_sea_level/sea_level_rise/sea_level_rise.htm
[C42] http://sun1.rrzn.uni-hannover.de/nhedinst/NATURE_416_389-395_2002.pdf (PDF file)
[C43] http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/305/5682/367
[C44] http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4633681.stm
[C45] http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article405824.ece
[C46] http://www.animana.org/tab2/22refugespeciesfeelingtheheat.shtml
[C47] http://www.lrb.co.uk/v27/n01/byer01_.html
[C48] http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/30_10_06_exec_sum.pdf (PDF file)
[C49] http://www.nichols.edu/departments/glacier/
[C50] http://earthscape.org/t1/low01/low01bc/low01bc.html
[C51] http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7066/full/nature04141.html (subscription required)
[C52] http://www.agu.org/meetings/fm05/fm05-sessions/fm05_C41A.html
[C53] http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6096594.stm
[C54] http://www.abi.org.uk/Display/File/364/SP_Climate_Change5.pdf (PDF file)
[C55] http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/22420/story.htm
[C56] http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3375447.stm
[C57] http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/06/AR2005070601899.html
[C58] http://www.y2y.net/grizzly/modelling.asp
[C59] http://www.ecobridge.org/content/g_tht.htm
[C60] http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/models/modeldata.html
[C61] http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5742/1844/
[C62] http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6324029.stm
[C63] http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Global_Warming_Predictions_png
[C64] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Heat_Wave_of_2003
[C65] http://www.ecobridge.org/content/g_tht.htm#Waves
[C66] http://www.ogc.doc.gov/ogc/legreg/testimon/106s/karl0718.htm
[C67] http://www.ecobridge.org/content/g_tht.htm#States
[C68] http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Recent_Sea_Level_Rise_png
[C69] http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Sea_Level_Projections_png
[C70] http://www.ecobridge.org/content/g_tht.htm#cities
[C71] http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/16/AR2005111602197.html
[C72] http://www.ecobridge.org/content/g_tht.htm#Diseases
[C73] http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jan2001/2001-01-22-02.asp
[C74] http://www.unesco.org/water/wwap/wwdr/pdf/chap4.pdf (large PDF file)
[C75] http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200503/s1322814.htm
[C77a] http://www.nature.com/news/2005/050124/full/050124-10.html (subscription required)
[C77b] http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0127-01.htm
[C78] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot
[C79] http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1153513,00.html
[C80] http://www.whitehouse.gov/stateoftheunion/2007/index.html
[C81] http://curious.astro.cornell.edu/question.php?number=317
[C82] http://web.archive.org/web/20050223042051/http://www.risingtide.nl/greenpepper/envracism/refugees.html
[C83] http://www.elmhurst.edu/~chm/vchembook/122Adensityice.html
[C84] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
[C85] http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15391426/site/newsweek/
[C86] http://www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/greenhouse_2000e.htm
[C87] http://volcano.und.edu/vwdocs/Gases/man.html
[C88] http://www.environmentaldefense.org/documents/381_FactSheet_globalwarming_timeline.pdf (PDF File)
[C89] http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,1517966,00.html
[C90] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leipzig_Declaration
[C91] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_Petition
[C92] http://www.ecosyn.us/adti/Seitz_Tobacco_Crimes.html
[C93] http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2003/07aug_southpole.htm
[C94] http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/climate.shtml
[C95] http://eartheasy.com/live_fuel_efficient_driving.htm


10B - DEFINITIONS
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[D1] Halogens: A group of non-metallic elements (group 17 in the periodic table) consisting of fluorine (F), chlorine (Cl), bromine (Br), Iodine (I) and Astatine (At). A sixth halogen, ununseptium (Uus) has yet to be discovered.

[D2] PPMV: Parts Per Million by Volume.

[D3] pH: Stands for per Hydrogen, it is a measure of acidity and alkalinity on a scale of 0 to 14. Seven is neutral, the closer to zero the more acidic and the closer to 14 the more alkaline.

[D4] IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes, established by the World Meteorological Office and the United Nations Environment Programme.

[D5] GDP: Gross Domestic Product: the total annual value of all goods and services produced by a country.


10C - MORE INFORMATION
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[M1] Terminology: http://www.climatechangecentral.com/default.asp?V_DOC_ID=849

[M2] Greenhouse Gases: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas

[M3] Ozone Depletion: http://www.epa.gov/ozone/

[M4] IPCC Key Findings: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6324029.stm Detailed report http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf (PDF file)

[M5] Greenhouse Effect: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/sci_nat/04/climate_change/html/greenhouse.stm

[M6] Rising Sea Levels: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Holocene_Sea_Level.png and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Recent_Sea_Level_Rise.png

[M7] Energy Efficiency: http://www.eere.energy.gov/consumer/your_home/appliances/index.cfm/mytopic=10020


10D - SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
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[S1] Water Vapour: The temperature of the earth largely determines the amount of water vapour; in hot tropical regions the air is damp and humid whereas in colder polar regions the air is dry. As the earth warms and cools levels of water vapour vary significantly. In the context of global warming and cooling water vapour has a compounding effect, a sort of catch 22 situation – warmer/cooler air means more/less water vapour which in turn leads to greater warming/cooling.

[S2] Ice Age: Technically we’re still in an ice age and will be until the polar ice caps melt.

[S3] Data Ranges: The figure for 1905 is the average from 1900 to 1910 (subject year ±5), the figure for 1955 is the average from 1950 to 1960 (subject year ±5), the figure for 1980 is the average from 1975 to 1985 (subject year ±5), the figure for 2005 is the average from 1996 to 2005 (10 years up to and including subject year).

[S4] Industrial Revolution: Started in England in about 1760, spread to Western Europe by about 1800 and throughout the world by about 1850. Saw a dramatic change in living and working practices from small-scale localised industry and farming to large-scale production, factories and intensive agriculture.

[S5} Deforestation: The clearing of forests either for timber extraction or creation of agricultural or building land. Trees (and other flora) absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, when they’re felled this process stops and the carbon in the trees is released when they decay or are burned.

[S6] Other Astronomical Factors: Over periods of thousands of years the earth goes through cycles. Sometimes for example, it leans more towards the sun and other times it leans away from the sun. Although these changes are small (less then a 3° variation from the norm) they affect the way the earth is heated by the sun.

[S7] Global Dimming: This is another factor affecting precipitation and one which should be taken into account, it is explained here http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_prog_summary.shtml

[S8] Desertification: Global warming is a contributory factor; there are other factors that exacerbate desertification.

[S9] Cartaret Islands: The sinking of the islands is thought to be caused by global warming but there have been other theories put forward including the movement of tectonic plates and the dynamiting of coral reefs. More info... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carteret_Islands

[S10] Ecosystems: The effects on ecosystems were studied by Nature and the summary findings published by various organisations. A summary can be downloaded from Stanford University in PDF format http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20115/naturefingerprints.pdf (PDF file).

[S11] Oceans as carbon sinks: The amount of CO2 we are emitting is greater than at any other time and the proportion absorbed by the oceans is much smaller.

[S12] Carbon Emissions: For every 1000 miles driven a car returning 20mpg produces 500kg (1000 pounds) or carbon emissions, 30mpg = 333kg, 40mpg = 250kg, 50mpg = 200kg, 60mpg = 167kg, 70mpg = 148kg.


10E - VIDEOS
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Threat to species: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/science/jan-june04/climate_5-20.html# (8 mins)
Panorama: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/programmes/panorama/default.stm (60 mins)
Eight short films about climate change: http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcfour/documentaries/features/climate-shorts.shtml (only available in the UK) (approx 4 mins each)
Leonardo DiCaprio Video: http://www.leonardodicaprio.org/whatsimportant/globalwarming_movie01.htm (10 mins)
G W Bush (Will Ferrell) on Global Warming http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7408504973132978571&q=label%3A%22global+warming%22 (4 mins)
The Great Global Warming Swindle: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=9005566792811497638&q=label%3A%22global+warming%22 (1 hour 16 mins)
Al Gore on global warming http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7408504973132978571&q=label%3A%22global+warming%22 (1 hour 20 mins)
Global warming 50 years ago http://dabble.com/node/7990034 (2 mins)
An Inconvenient Truth (order for free) http://sharethetruth.us/free/
An Inconvenient Truth Trailer http://www.apple.com/trailers/paramount_classics/aninconvenienttruth/trailer/ (4 mins)


10F – WIKIPEDIA LINKS
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Climate Change: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change
Effects of Global Warming: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming
Global Warming: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Warming
Global Warming Controversy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_controversy
Mitigation of Global Warming: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitigation_of_global_warming
Greenhouse Effect: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect
Greenhouse Gas: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas
Scientific Opinion on Climate Change: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change
Adaptation to Global Warming: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptation_to_global_warming
Politics of Global Warming: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_global_warming
Economics of Global Warming: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_global_warming


10G – NOTES
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Written March 2007. Version 1.1. Feedback and comments welcome (use e-mail link in profile). © 2007. Reproduction in part or whole permitted by prior approval only. Adapted from my original for Yahoo Answers.