What’s the best strategy to win an NCAA tournament pool?

Question

I have had success coaching a couple of winning college basketball teams and taking them pretty far into the NCAA tournament, having come within 3 points of taking St. John’s to the Final Four. I’d like to make sure I win it all this year in my tournament pool. What suggestions do you have?

Answer 1

1st Round:

* Be very selective picking any team below a #12 seed. #16 seeds are 0 for 88. #15 seeds are 4 for 88. #13 and #14 seeds are less than 19% combined.
* Don’t be shy about picking upsets when #12 through #9 seeds are involved Look especially hard at picking #12 seeds; they have won 11 of 24 matchups vs. #5 seeds the last six years. #9 seeds have a winning record vs. #8 seeds.

2nd Round:

* Advance #1 seeds almost automatically – they win their first two games 86% of the time.
* Keep advancing the #12 and #10 seeds you picked to win in Round One. They win almost half the time in Round Two (14 of 29 for #12 seeds; 17 of 35 for #10 seeds).
* Rarely pick a #13 seed or lower to win in Round Two. Only 9% of teams advancing past Round Two are seeded that low.

Sweet 16:

* Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8. No reason to buck the math: 70% of #1 seeds advance into the 4th round (that’s a higher percentage than #5 seeds who win a single game)!
* Advance no team lower than a #12 seed into the Elite 8. NOT ONE has ever advanced!

Elite Eight:

* Advance ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four. Amazingly, exactly one or two #1 seeds have made the Final Four 18 of the last 22 years.
* Advance no team lower than a #8 seed to the Final Four. Only 2 of 88 Final Four teams have been seeded lower than #8.

Final Four:

* Advance NO team below a 6th seed to the Championship game. Not a single one has made it in the last 21 years.

Championship Game:

* Pick a #4 seed or higher to win it all. For 18 straight years the champion has been a 4 seed or higher!

Answer 2

Here are my tips:

1) Pick an upset. There has been a 12 over 5 upset in each of the last 5 years. Old Dominion over Butler is the most probable this year

2) If there are 8 or so teams that you really like, eliminate half of them. Not everyone can be great, so just pick a few

3) Dont pick all 1 or 2 seeds. In the history of the NCAA Tournament, there has NEVER been a Final Four with all 4 one seeds, and this year it isnt likely to change

4) Dont look for this year's George Mason, because there probably isnt one. Miracle runs like that happen very scarcely, and two years in a row is even more unlikely than once in the same 5 years or even decade

5) Go with your instinct. Sure, those college basketball "experts" know quite their share of basketball, but they're not always right. Go with your gut instinct and you should be fine. Thats what I have done and I have won my family pool the last two years in a row as the youngest entry in the pool (of course there are only 4 people, but I won nonetheless!)

Hope these help you and good luck this year in the Tournament!

Answer 3

Winning an NCAA pool or finishing in the top three is something I do regularly. The reason has much less to do with knowing which teams to choose (though, obviously, a basic understanding of the teams is important) than understanding the methodology behind the way the pools are designed and the psychology of the participants.

If, for example, you enter an office pool with, say, 150, entries, I can almost assure you (through years of experience) that no more than 3, maybe 4, teams will garner 80% to 85% of the overall championship votes. I can also tell you that at least 90% of the participants will enter only one ballot, a few will enter 2, and maybe a couple will enter 3 or 4. Depending on the field and my confidence level, I will always enter 6 to 8 times in a single pool. It doesn't take Enrico Fermi to realize that by understanding a little bit about probabilities that you can mix and match your entries such that you (I) will almost always have at least one ballot surviving through to the Final Four. However, I don't know if this process is legitimate for very large pools as I have always been a small timer.

There will probably be no more than 15 to 20 (maybe fewer) teams that have a legitimate shot at surviving through to the final weekend. Use those teams in your Final Four mix. Like everyone else, I have my favorites and I will weigh them more heavily than the others. Inevitably, my favorites lose every year and it is my last ballot that wins it. Last year was a weak year but it was my 8th submission that finished 2nd. I do this every year in a few pools and every year but one out of the last seven I have made money, even winning several times. Every year I hear the same people making the same comments about how inane it is to waste money on that many entries. So be it.

Understand too that you need not be concerned if Jackson State wins it all this year (they won't). Everyone else will have been eliminated from that region and you will have three other possible winners from your other ballots. Upsets actually work in your favor.

Finally, admittedly, I will always have one ballot with Syracuse winning it all. They are, after all, my team. I 'm thinking real hard this year, however, that maybe I'll set my sentiments aside. I believe the probability is quite high that Syracuse won't make the Final Four.

Answer 4

Stay conservative and use your head. Ride your 1-5 seeds to the Sweet 16. (You'll have to choose b/w your 4 and 5 seed). Don't take chances having your 8-16 seeds go anywhere past the second round, odds are against this. If its a pool that gives extra points for upset picks, pick half the 9's, 10's, and 12's to win their first round games. Look to ride the 10-12's that won their conference tournaments. Going with all #1 seeds to the Final Four is not dumb, theres a good chance you'll get 2 out of 4. If you risk picking non #1 seeds you risk killing your bracket, but the payout can be nice when you take the risk and get 3 or 4 of the Final Four teams correct. I believe more than 70% of Final Four teams are 1-3 seeds, and the National Champion normally wins their conference season, tournament or both. Since 1999, every final four has included two teams from the same conference. These Final Four teams are almost ALWAYS from a major conference. I would recommend considering combinations of Georgetown/Pitt or KU/Texas/A&M for the pair from the same conference. Finally, >90% of National Champions win 26-29 games, and lose 2-6 games before the tournament; they almost ALWAYS win at least one game in the previous season's NCAA Tournament (KU lost 1st rd 2006, Washington State did not make the 2006 NCAA Tournament).

Answer 5

A couple of suggestions from a person who's won a couple pools in the past:

1. DON'T go for the "chalk". What I mean, is that u should not make all your picks that are 1-8. There will be some 9-14 seed winning a game. (See G.Mason last year)

2. DO make an upset pick. Wheter it be a 12 beating a 5, a 1
3 beating a 4 or even a 14 beating a 3! Make an upset pick.

3. However, DONT go crazy with the upset picks.

4.DO know who u are picking. Do not go picking a number 3 seed to go all the way, just because they are your almamater.

5.DON'T pick all 4 no.1 seeds to go to the Final Four. Never has happened. And it certainly wont.

6.DO your research! Look online, watch their games, look at stats! DO YOUR RESEARCH! I mean, just because that 13 seed may have a better record than that 4 seed, techincally it might not mean that they are the better team!

7. FINALLY, have fun with it!

and 8. DONT PICK FLORIDA TO WIN IT ALL. WHEN HAS A TEAM REPEATED AS CHAMP???? Exactly. Go for someone different, say a UCLA, UNC or even a TAMU.

Answer 6

Don't take chances having your 8-16 seeds go anywhere past the second round, odds are against this. If its a pool that gives extra points for upset picks, pick half the 9's, 10's, and 12's to win their first round games. Look to ride the 10-12's that won their conference tournaments. Going with all #1 seeds to the Final Four is not dumb, theres a good chance you'll get 2 out of 4. If you risk picking non #1 seeds you risk killing your bracket, but the payout can be nice when you take the risk and get 3 or 4 of the Final Four teams correct. I believe more than 70% of Final Four teams are 1-3 seeds, and the National Champion normally wins their conference season, tournament or both. Since 1999, every final four has included two teams from the same conference. These Final Four teams are almost ALWAYS from a major conference. I would recommend considering combinations of Georgetown/Pitt or KU/Texas/A&M for the pair from the same conference. Finally, >90% of National Champions win 26-29 games, and lose 2-6 games before the tournament; they almost ALWAYS win at least one game in the previous season's NCAA Tournament (KU lost 1st rd 2006, Washington State did not make the 2006 NCAA Tournament).

Answer 7

My feelings about how to win the NCAA March Madness tournament pool is to recognize that a reasonable number of expectations will not be met. In other words, you have to focus some of your logical forethoughts into an illogical basis, and then try to ascertain if it's a slippery favorite (negative base) or an over-achieving underdog (positive base) that will break across the barrier of pre-existing expectations that society and analysts tend to maintain their job security upon. I think it goes without saying if a Sports analyst really knew how to predict the outcome of games, they would not be working for a television network....if you know what I mean. ;-)

As I'm sure you well know, with the NCAA and the youthful ages involved; I tend to think more times than not, it's the team with the higher expectations from the media and public going into the game are at a slight disadvantage. The other factor along those same lines is understanding the coaching staff and how the inter-working relationships amongst the team and staff are going. A great coaching staff can teach the players how to manage stress. In fact many teams benefit with the use of a Sports Psychologist. It certainly wouldn't hurt to have some discussion with any Sports Psychologists which are to your disposal.

In the end - it's typically the team that best manages all the stress; the good, the bad and the ugly stress together.

Answer 8

The best strategy is to do your homework. Sure some people will guess based on this, that, and the other thing and be successful. In the long run though, they are sub-par. I never claimed to be perfect myself, but I tend to do well. Here a few things I look at:
First round- over the last several years, 1 seeds have been perfect, 2s going off at 96%, 3s 90% and 4s 80%. The next strongest seed is the 6 at 75%. The 5s are a near coin toss against a 12 and the 7/8 seeds are 2-1 win wise. Your first round upsets tend to come from these three games (5/12, 7/10, 8/9).
Second round through the conclusion- matchups are important. I look at a teams win-loss record compared to their schedules strength as well as how the teams played against each other (or common opponents) if possible. Doing this, keep in mind most teams get between 3-5 points for being at home. You also got to know about injuries as well as whos just plain hot. Georgetown, for example, is hitting their stride right now and will be a tough team.
The last thing I would suggest, if you want to win a pool, is to go with a team that is not the most picked. The popular team may win, but if everyone had them, it will come down to who got lucky with Oral Roberts in the first round. Anyway, good luck to all this year...I can't wait!

Answer 9

I think you have to look at two very important factors: 1.) Who is peaking right now, the right time, 2.) Tournament history.

Historically no no. 1 seed has been beaten by a No. 16, and very few No. 2's have been beaten by No. 15's.

Never have all 4 No. 1 seeds made it to the finals.

That being said, who are the teams that are peaking right now, who is getting hot.

Until their first round ACC tournament loss, Maryland was on a hot streak and I think they'll pick up where they left off running into the Sweet 16.

Florida and Kansas both looked strong in their conference tournaments.

My pick to win it all is Georgetown. They've won 16 of their last 17, dominated almost everyone in their conference tournament, have the right combination of strong defense and balanced offense. 3 legitimate stars in Green, Hibbert and of course Ewing. And as I said above, look to History when there was a coach named Thompson and player named Ewing?

I think joining them in the Final Four will be Wisconsin, Kansas, & Texas A&M. With Georgetown topping Wisconsin to win it all.

Some other thoughts:

One man shows do not win National Championships:
Look back at Shaq and LSU. This is why as much as I love to watch Ogden and Durant play, they are not enough to propel Ohio State and Texas to the Final Four.


Winthrop & VCU will break the mold of No. 11 seeds ( The Eagles are due a big win, just look at the past 6 seasons)

Contrary to what anyalysts are saying the East is the toughest division, with North Carolina, Georgetown & Texas.

Beware the mid-majors, even after George Mason's Cinderella performance they still don't get respect i.e. Drexel being left out of the tournament and magically Arkansas gets in.

Best of Luck to you all.

Answer 10

If its a pool that gives extra points for upset picks, pick half the 9's, 10's, and 12's to win their first round games. Look to ride the 10-12's that won their conference tournaments. Going with all #1 seeds to the Final Four is not dumb, theres a good chance you'll get 2 out of 4. If you risk picking non #1 seeds you risk killing your bracket, but the payout can be nice when you take the risk and get 3 or 4 of the Final Four teams correct. I believe more than 70% of Final Four teams are 1-3 seeds, and the National Champion normally wins their conference season, tournament or both. Since 1999, every final four has included two teams from the same conference. These Final Four teams are almost ALWAYS from a major conference. I would recommend considering combinations of Georgetown/Pitt or KU/Texas/A&M for the pair from the same conference. Finally, >90% of National Champions win 26-29 games, and lose 2-6 games before the tournament; they almost ALWAYS win at least one game in the previous season's NCAA Tournament (KU lost 1st rd 2006, Washington State did not make the 2006 NCAA Tournament).

Answer 11

Do your homework, and don't try to outsmart the bracket, or the other people. Take into consideration that even the best teams are unpredictable, especially when in a road environment.

I certainly figured some of your old St. John's teams would have faired better in past appearances, but as we both know, the tournament makes some unknown stars shine, while others fold under the pressure (and some good defense).

When choosing picks, I always go with my gut feeling. I never go by seed numbers. Because if the seeds were so accurate, there wouldn't be much of a point having a tourney at all.

I wish you the best of luck, Coach Jarvis.