The media aren't very good at reporting things like this. Avian influenza IS going to mutate into a form that can pass between humans, but the question is when and how virulent will it be?
To do this, a mammal, something like a human, pig or cat, needs to become infected with a mammalian influenza and H5N1. If both viruses enter a cell, they can swap genes, and eventually they'll swap genes so that H5N1 is able to be transmissable between humans.
In this gene swapping event it is entirely possible for H5N1 to loose its virulence, making it no worse than a normal flu. However. If it doesn't, then we are in for a nasty pandemic. Everytime it has mutated in birds, it has become more and more virulent, and has killed greater percentages of those it infects. In the past, avian influenza pandemics have tended towards affecting people between 10 and 25 and over 65 the worst.
Oh, there won't be a vaccine until 3-6 months after the beginning of the pandemic, because it takes time, and some H5N1 strains are showing resistance to tamiflu.....
Lets hope it isn't a virulent one.
2007-03-08 18:25:39
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answer #1
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answered by Bacteria Boy 4
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