Blackjack - How does card counting help?

Question

I can count cards.

Let me explain. Say on a 6 deck shoe, you have counted to a whopping +35. That is supposed to mean that the deck is completely in your favor (there are more face cards than anything).

That's when you throw your big bet out.

Well, you get a face card and a seven (17).

But, the dealer also gets a face card (TWO of THEM). You lose.

How is this in your favor? Is it because the dealer, if having to hit, can hit a face card and bust?

Good info, thanks all.

Answer 1

Because the laws of probability are heavily in your favor, but that doesn't mean that you will always win. Having the deck at a high count means that you have a nice edge over the casino, but just like the games where the casino has a high edge over the player, the players still win some of the time.

When a deck is at a high count, the surplus of 10's in the deck make it more likely that A) you will get a good hand, and B) that the dealer will bust if they get a bad hand.

Answer 2

In general, low cards in the shoe are good for the house and high cards in the shoe are good for the player. A quick explanation for this is that low cards make it less likely for the dealer to bust.

Card counting techniques try to estimate the ratio of high cards to low cards remaining in the shoe. The primary way this helps is that the player can place large bets when ratio is high enough that s/he has an advantage over the house, and small bets otherwise. A secondary help is that the player can adjust how s/he plays a particular hand depending on the ratio, but many card counters don't do this because it's a minimal help.

edit: I thought the +35 bit was someone else's answer, not part of your question. I attempted to answer the one-line question that is the title of your post. Sorry about that.

So let me address your situation. You have a +35 count in some counting system, which means you estimate that there are a lot more high cards than low cards in the shoe.

You will still get two-card 17 vs dealer two-card 20, in fact slighly more often than at lower counts (presuming your counting system doesn't consider a 7 to be a low card). You will get two-card 20 vs dealer two-card 17 just as often on average.

The point is, you should't "throw your big bet out" once at maximum count. You want to be making relatively large bets over an extended period when the count is in your favor. Even then you may lose money over that extended period, but in the long run you should be making money in those situations.

Answer 3

#1. (what most answers were getting at) Basic strategy generally assumes that all unseen cards are 10's (a few exceptions like 12 vs a 2) so if the unseen cards are more likely to be 10's, your basic strategy plays will be more likely to work.

#2. (the big one) a high count makes blackjack much more likely for both you and the dealer. The difference is that you just lose your bet when the dealer has it, and you get paid 3-2 when you have it. So if you are betting $100 a hand, get dealt blackjack and on the next hand, the dealer gets blackjack, youve profited $50 despite the fact that the cards have technically "Evened out"

Answer 4

Counting cards helps you in a number of ways, but all the ways only increase your odds. none of them guarantee you will win.

You didn't mention what card counting system you used to get to +35, or if that was a raw count or the count adjusted for the number of card remaining. I am going to assume it is a raw count using the simplest counting system, +1 for each 2 through 6 and -1 for each 10 through ace.

In that case you

(1) take insurance, since you would win better than one out of every three times.

(2) stand on a hand of 16 against the dealers 10,

(3) make other changes based on adjusted count (raw count divided by the number of decks remaining in the shoe).

Even if you count cards, and the odds are in your favor, it is still gambling and you still can and will lose much of the time. (Similarly, if the count is -35 you will still win much of the time even though the odds are against you.)

Your advatage with a high count come partially from the fact that the dealer will bust more often, but also because

(1) You can change your play to increase your odds,

(2) More blackjacks will be dealt to both you and the dealer. Since you get paid 3:2 when you get a blackjact but only lose even money when the dealer gets one, that is to your advantage.

Answer 5

at plus 35 you have a greater opportunity for a blackjack. if you get 6,5 and double down, odds are you will hit a 10.....smart and savvy players play 2 or 3 hands. smart and savvy pit bosses re-shuffle the deck

Answer 6

i use an odds table which gives you what to do depending on what cards are shown. that plus - 0 + gives you better chance at winning

Answer 7

Okay...I play blackjack a bit frequently...but you lost me there at the end.