What is the most important factor when handicapping a horse race?

Question

When looking at the DRF, there are so many things to consider (the type/class of a race, most recent performances, surface, distance, trainer, recent workouts, trainers/riders record coming off 60+ layoff, etc.). Which has the most impact on the outcome?

Answer 1

A combination of the class of the race and the past performance of the horses in it. For example, in a $3,500 claiming race it is entirely possible that a Longshot will win if its past performance is better than the Favorite's (think Maiden race), so then an overlayed horse may actually be a better choice than an odds-on; while in a stakes race I would never assume that - I'd bet the Favorite to Show. I'd want the horse to have failed in the past at the wrong length or wrong surface rather than at its customary one; I'd want it to have had at least one miserable performance (without injury) that it recovered from somewhere in its racing history. I wouldn't get myself too bogged down with trainer of record in the last race unless he/she was so lousy that the owner changed, which is a sign that the owner is really trying to win and not just trying to condition the horse. Same for the jockey. A lot of times the horses with the best trainers/jockeys have their odds kicked down so low you can't win anything significant yet you can lose it all if they miss. As for surface, never bet a turf favorite to win if the race is being moved off-turf due to rain - that's because turf specialists usually have larger feet, so they bog down worse in mud. In all the stats I have analyzed it seems that Turf Stakes races involving Fillies and Mares running at 1 to 1 1/2 miles are the most erratic in the results of the odds of the winner. Workourts are meaningless as they can be rigged - a friend of mine swears that sometimes they take horses out to a secret pasture and show the serious bettors/potential buyers what a horse that "has no chance" can really do. Coming off a layoff is VERY inportant. In all my studies a horse that has run a good performance within the last 15 days has the edge over a horse with a similar but older performance; this is especially true if the oldest race happened 6-9 months ago, in which case the horse with the oldest race may come in last - I've seen it.

In my opinion the easiest general way to handicap is to pick those that finished in the top 33% of the achievement average of all the horses in their last race, then eliminate the oldest performances, then consider a solid underlayed first favorite and a horse that is a strong contender yet an unjustified-overlay (should be bet on but the public is passing - I don't mean it went from 5 to 2 up to 50 to 1!) But make sure to check the class level of past races and watch for drops/raises in class or to see if any of the horses in the particular race have run against each other - if so, unless one of them won that race, the one that finished in the money or outranked the competitor has a slight edge. The reason I don't like to bet one that won against today's competition is that it may suffer from the "bounce" - but I would put it in an Exacta/Trifecta box.

Hope this helps.

Answer 2

important factor handicapping horse race

Answer 3

Beyers combined with speed on dirt.

Beyers on Poly

Final fractions on grass

Answer 4

close between:

1) early speed advantage over field

2) class advantage over field

Answer 5

Depends on where you place the bet.
If you went to bookie,most important to have money to pay off if you loose.
If you bet at track,mos important not to bet what you can not afford to loose..

Answer 6

speed it is a race

Answer 7

how much money you can afford to lose