Is Avian Influenza anything to even worry about? Why is everyone worrying about it?

Question

I went to the doctor's the other day and there were all these posters going on about it, saying come in if you think you have it... and theres all the hype from the media...

Answer 1

Bird flu is a very real concern. Of course, presently it is not. It is a bit funny that there were posters in your doctors office because firstly you cannot think that you have "bird flu" because the early symtoms are similar to any flu, so that in itself is most likely a scare tactic. Otherwise, here are a few historical facts.

The 1918 pandemic (which killed millions of people worldwide) was originally an avian influenza.

This virus has shown to be highly contagious amongst birds, leading to quick deaths, and spreading throughout three major continents within three months time.

There is a pandemic about every 35 years. The last two have been relatively easy to control - but they did happen - you can look them up. One occurred in the 60s. It has been over 35 years to date that the last occurred, so we are well due for one.

Human global mobility (the most there has ever been in world history) poses a major threat because the symtoms to not present immediately, and could be transmitted in major cities rapidly, and spread quickly as people flee economic centres.

Of course, currently there is no human threat, unless you handle infected birds directly. The virus has not mutated yet to be able to pass from human to human. This (hopefully) will never occur, but who knows? If it mutates away, that's great, if it does mutate to have the ability to bind easily to human cells, then we will be in trouble. The statistics predict 30% infection rate, and many deaths. (1.8 million or more in the United States alone) For now - no worries, but if this does happen, the CDC has suggested school closure for up to three months, closure of shopping centres and public transport, voluntary quarantine. There will be limited supply of anti-viral medicine - given only to high-risk people like hospital workers, sanitation, utilities - people who provide basic needs. A vaccine would take up to 6 months to make, and even then more time to produce the massive amounts needed and be distributed and administered.

Imagine 30%+ of the police force out and everyone sick with businesses closed - it has the potential to end up like hurricane katrina. That's why we're doing all this planning now.

You can find loads of great information about it - check out BBC.CO.UK and type in "Bird Flu" in the search - it will give you loads of videos and articles on the current situation. Also, you can check out the New York Times as well.

The point is - it is possible, it is actually inevitable that eventually there will be another - it's happened for all of human history. Research the 1918 pandemic and you will see.

Finally... There are a lot of people claiming that it's to distract or make money. Well, that's historically inaccurate. There was a spat of bird flu when Clinton was president which did get a bit of press, but it was a very few infections and went away until just recently, where when it started infecting birds, it infected LOADS of them across three continents - look at the bird flu map timeline on BBC - you'll see. When any disease pops up and spreads like that in any population, there is always cause for concern. Also - the money issue... No, it's not that. Tamiflu is not being bought for EVERYONE, just necessicary workers. Also, Tamiflu doesn't make any money from the millions of dollars that government and private agencies (worldwide, not just in fear-oriented united states) are pouring into logistical preparation. My state alone is spending millions of dollars of its OWN money into the project, none of which goes BACK to the government, and none of which goes to any pharmaceutical company.

Answer 2

Hype?

Let's put it this way the GREAT War (World War 1) killed about 15 million people between 1914 and 1918. That means an average 3 million 750 thousand died a year. That's a lot, it's carnage on a huge scale. Let us never forget...get the picture?

The Influenza Pandemic between 1918 and 1920 took an estimated 75 million lives (this estimate ranges from 50 to 100 million people). So it took an average 37 million 500 thousand people a year, 10 times as many as man can kill when he trying really hard. In total it killed 5 times as many people in half the time. Genetic testing has identified this flu virus as most likely being a (naturally) mutated avian flu strain. Sound familiar?

Some other insane facts...It predominantly affects young healthy people...it killed 25 million people in it's first 25 weeks - AIDS killed the same in 25 years, between 2.5 and 5% of the ENTIRE HUMAN RACE were killed by it (in two years), there was and still is no cure and it could return at any point...

So to answer your question, avian influenza is something to be very worried about.

Answer 3

The avian flu has showed up (in birds) in the UK but not the US yet. Humans can get it from massive contact with infected bird waste, but it is not contagious from human to human. Thus poultry workers are the main human victims. It has a high mortality rate in humans, and, being a virus, antibiotics don't affect it.
The big concern is, that the virus may mutate into a form that passes from human to human. Most human influenzas originate from animal influenzas this way. If this happens, and if it keeps its present rate of mortality in humans, it would be extremely dangerous.
However, the problem is already being worked on. In the UK they already have a vaccine made from the current form of the bird flu. If the virus mutates to a more contagious form, this vaccine would not provide complete immunity, but would give partial crossover immunity, at least reducing the severity of the new illness.
Meanwhile, once the new virus appears, they will start working on a proper vaccine for it, which would be available within a few months.
So, there is cause for concern and awareness, but not for fear and panic.

Answer 4

It's just something to get excited about isn't it .... I agree with you, most people are far too busy struggling to meet Utility bills etc to worry about getting sick. With 24/7 rolling news I think all mini issues get hyped out of all proportion. Remember the vet who had been involved at the Bernard Matthews plant? Had a bit of a sniffle so went to get checked out - had about half an hour of what if he's got bird flu even though the journalist began by stating it was highly unlikely.

Answer 5

Your so right it is another topic being overhyped by the media. They seem bent on instilling panic. Maybe they do it to awaken us from our complacency. Amongst all the hype however they do say that the serious cases abroad have all been people living with or in close daily proximity with birds.

Answer 6

it is nothing to worry about untill the h5n1 strand of virus mutates into a human form. In my opinion, it seems more probable that the virus will sooner change into a form which resides in, say, dogs... or cats.. until than, i would certainly eat a liquifying dead turkey I found in a filthy swamp... cough*

Answer 7

certain companies are cleaning up with marketing an expesive placebo callel tramil flue ,aussie govt got conned into paying cash up front for 5 million units
this allows the free poster to get paid for
it cant spread human to human
but the beatup is a great destraction from weopens of mass destruction written by penny trators getting paid 15 bucks a day to blog up destractions as current affairs to media and journa-lists

Answer 8

the main fear is that this h5n1 strain can mutate into a different form of bird flu which it has already done a lot. only the next time it could be so deadly it could wipe out half the planet or worse

Answer 9

Hype is what the media DO.

Answer 10

let me set your mind at ease,I was told I could have avian flu 13yrs ago,hey presto im still here,dont believe everything you read in the media,be happy.