Do you think there'll be a recession this year?

Question

A lot of people have said around mid year.

Answer 1

Housing market's cool-down is indeed worrisome. American economy is largely dependent on household consumption (or over-consumption, depending how you look at it) and Americans have been financing their consumption in part by the equity released from their houses. If housing market cools, not only the hugely bloated after years of booming prosperity real estate related industries will shed many jobs and negatively affect the economy, but also drastically reduce the home equity refinancing frenzy that has been going on for last few years. Very swiftly consumers will tighten their belts to get accustomed to the dried up source of cash and to the feeling of being less wealthy in terms of property. Retail industry will lose steam and indirectly financial industry, especially mortgage related finance, will need to cut cost and scale down. The impact on the economy could be substantial when taken together, a mild recession is the best case scenario, given the brewing imbalances. SA mild recession, in my opinion, most likely will show itself and become a reality in the second half of the year. A mild recession is the best case scenario, a housing market "melt-down" as some are predicting can have severe implications.

Answer 2

We are already in a recession and it will continue for a few more years.

Answer 3

No. No one is successful predicting recessions, so it doesn't matter what "a lot of people" say.