US Attacks Iran, Which Leads to World War III. Any Plausible Scenarios for the Chain Reaction of Events?

Question

If the States attack Iran, can someone foresee what would be the chain reaction of events, which would directly lead to WW III? For instance, US attacks Iran; Iran launches missiles on Israel; Israel retaliates and its rockets hit Kuwait by mistake; the Persian Gulf countries (primarily Kuwait, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Oman) launch an attack on Israel, Turkey - a member of NATO - allows the US to launch attacks on Iran from its soil, and Iran attacks Turkey. Other NATO members come in aid, and Bulgaria, Romania, Greece launch attacks by air on Iran too. Iran - in defence - attacks the European countries, and the WW III breaks out (there could also be scenarios of North Korea and India x Pakistan's "nuclear" behaviour towards the States [NK case] or each other [Indian Pakistan case]).

Can anyone suggest other plausible scenarios?

***Also, plz, plz, plz star my question, if you GENUINELY think it's an interesting one. Many thanks, gentlemen, and let's get the ball rolling!****

Thanks, m1a1mikeg... - not a bad contribution at all; however, your scenario has some fundamental mistakes:
1) Iran can't launch an attack on Israel using WMD because Iran hasn't reached that stage where it actually possesses those weapons. Even the most pessimistic experts indicate, that Iran is still 2, 3 years away from developing a WMD (*IF* it aspires to have one, because it is VERY possible and probable that all this fuss about Iran's WMD is an American propaganda, and is the fuss about nothing).

2) Iran would never invade Iraq, because you have to remember that Iran is a shia state, and the majority of Iraq's population is also shia. Iran would never do that (it's the same as US attacking Canada, which would never happen). If they need the support of Iraq's shias, it would be enough for Iranian political leaders to declare so, and the volunteers from Iraq would come in thousands.

Answer 1

Relations between Europe and Iran continue to deteriorate. Iran makes a credible threat toward European interests (such as threatening to blockade all Europe bound ships at the Straits of Hormuz. Europe calls on a reluctant US to intervene. The US sets full NATO participation as a condition of US support.

This results in a controversy that causes NATO to fracture. Turkey in particular refuses to participate or allow its soil to be used.

Iran launches a WMD attack on Israel. Israel retaliates. The mutual attacks between Israel and Iran result in an uproar in the Middle East that makes all but a very few Persian Gulf military facilities unusable by US/NATO forces.

Russia and China block UN action.

A naval confrontation between US/NATO forces escorting a Europe-bound oil tanker and the Iranian navy results in a sea battle. Iran declares war on the US/NATO.

Syria allies with Iran. Saudi Arabia declares neutrality. Iranians mass ground forces on the Iraqi and Afghanistan borders and begin firing ballistic missiles into Iraq, Afghanistan, and other Persian Gulf nations. Egypt closes the Suez canal.

Russia, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan ban all US military over flights - effectively isolating US forces in Afghanistan and Iraq.

China launches a 'naval excercise' off the coast of Taiwan (forcing the US to keep its carriers in the Pacific instead of reinforcing our carrier in the Persian Gulf).

Iran launches a ground invasion of Iraq and western Afghanistan.

An NATO warship is sunk by an Iranian anti-ship missile carrying a nuclear warhead. Iran announces that they have fitted nuclear warheads to IRBMS and threaten European cities with nuclear attack.

Additional notes: First WMD are not necissarly nuclear weapons. Although technically challenging, the technology to fit a chemical or a biological warhead to missiles has been around since the 1950s.

The fact that IAEA inspectors discovered uranium enriched to 'weapons grade' level should make you doubt Irans claims of a 'peaceful' nuclear power program. (And if their program were peaceful - why are they refusing to follow the NPT protocols?)

Second your assertation that Iran would not invade Iraq is not correct. One of Irans goals is to annex the Shia part of Iraq. In fact this is also the most likley outcome if the Democrats force us to leave Iraq before they can defend themselves. However the main reason I included this into my scenario is that this allows Iran to confront the US military on the ground under conditions where they hold an advantage.

Note that at this stage of the scenario Iran holds all of the advantages. US forces are out of position and reinforcement are over a month away. US forces in Afghanistan and Iraq are under threat from Iranian ground forces and the Iranian Air Force can simply overwhelm the small number of US Air Force aircraft in Iraq (forcing US troops to fight - not only without air cover but without air defenses as well).

At this point Iran asks the UN and Russia to intervene and mediate a peace treaty that forces US/NATO military forces out of the Persian Gulf. With a Democratic president this just may work.

If you want to discuss this further - I suggest that we take it to email.

Answer 2

Both the question and the answers focus only in combat situations and wars are more complex than that. There are political and economical factors that are always involved and that can determine moves that the soldier would not contemplate. Its is doubtful that Turkey, for instance, would side with Iran in a conflict with the West. There is an important economic incentive not to do it. Turkey, since the end of the Ottoman Empire, has sought to become westernised and has taken important steps towards this and institutionally considers itself as more European than Middleastern. Iran, on the other hand, places religious considerations (and fundamental, at that) over others. Therefore its actions are not easily predictable because a zelous but ignorant ayatollah may be decisive in a decision. Further, the religious considerations are not clear cut (i. e. Shiites will not attack shiites). Iran did have a war with Iraq despite the many shiites on both sides. Iraq attacked Kuwait without considering the religion of the Kuwaitis. So, a credible scenario should take several more factors into consideration than those purely military ones. Consider for instance that planes, tanks and troop carriers require fuel and parts. That parts, munitions, missiles and fuel cost money and their supply takes time. The question is interesting and I look forward to more answers.

Answer 3

US attacks Iran - kicks its ***. No one else does anything. We have a far to strang strong hold in the area for Iran to attack anyone else ie UAE, Iraq. Iran could possably attack Israel with missiles, however, we should be able to hold off any retalation by them. That is unless they use a WMD, then I would think all bets are off and Israel would nuke them. This would then create a very interesting senerio in which all the other Arab nations would want to attack Isreal. At which point we would have a very difficult time stopping. Giving the current climate for war in teh rest of the world, not sure who would then join in, if anyone. Also taking into consiration of other Nucular powers in the region, who knows what they would do.

Answer 4

You laid it out pretty clearly. I could see Iran's army occupying the oil lands of Iraq then marching thru the oil fields of Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. I think that would give them control of about 70 % of the world's oil supply. An alliance of some sort exists between Russia, China, and Iran--Russia and China are betting that Iran will emerge as controlling the Mideast and its oil, but whether they would fight the US or not is very much an unsettled, open question. Why would North Korea not take such an opportunity to march into South Korea? The US would be preoccupied and tied down with much bigger problems. Why would China not occupy Taiwan? The US would be occupied with much bigger problems.

Answer 5

1. US launches largest synchronized sea launched and air launched cruise missle attack on all nuclear, military, and Command and Control targets in a real shock and awe scenario.

2. This is followed by second wave of cruise missiles within 24 hours to neutralize secondary targets and targets not totally destroyed by first wave.

3. Iran attempts to launch whatever missiles have survived at Israel but these missiles have been destroyed by anti-missile system.

4. Israel simultaneously launches massive air strikes on any viable targets still left in Iran while simultaneously striking Syrian targets and invading Lebanon this time to wipe out Hamas once and for all. Iran and Syria unable to reinforce Hamas.

5. US unable to restrain Israel's massive strikes against Syria. Russia complains but is unable to match 6 US Carrier Strike Forces on station for any needed support to Israel.

6. US places 100,000 more troops on the borders of Iraq, Iran, and Syria and begin real sweep to mop up any organized forces.

7. Al Qaeda is neutralized without support from Iran and Syria.

8. Other Arab states stand in awe of US might and offer any humanitarian assistance that might be needed.

Answer 6

Then the war will be between Iran, Israel and USA

Answer 7

here's one.

the usa attacks iran and the current govt in iraq SUPPORTS IRAN.

saudi arabia comes strongly in support of the sunnis' in iraq - then other sunni states follow suit.

russia and china come in on the side or iran.

so the sides will line up something like this:

usa - all sunni states in middle east and israel against - iran, russia and china...

Answer 8

US attacks Iran, everyone else sits back and watches

Answer 9

Why don't we just wait for Iran to attack us, that way we can say its justified?

Answer 10

We r already in Third World War but most of us don`t realize it. but time to time most of the nation will involve this war.