When do you think the world's fossil fuel supply will run out?

Question

Also, what reprocussions would it bring? How would it affect our lives?

Answer 1

Look at it like this, the Earth wil never run "out" of oil or gas or coal or whatever, it will just be so expensive to get that resource out and make it usable that it's cheaper to use something else.

The best book I've read on the subject is probably this one, http://www.amazon.com/End-Oil-Edge-Perilous-World/dp/0618239774

The problem is we've got multiple clocks ticking down.

1. The cost of fuels will simply go up, one day it will be a Katrina or a 9/11 type event - the price will shoot up , and just not come back down.

The immediate effects would be a recession or possibly a depression if the circumstances were bad enough. Asuming that we recovered in less than a decade or two, the SUV or most any other kind of conventional vehicle will be gone , something like super-efficient hybrids will replace them (60-90MPG) will be the norm in just a few years anyway since the Prius has set the mark. More people will live in cities since driving / country/suburban living will be for the very rich.

In the US the CAFE standards would be enforced for the first time in 25 years.

2. Global warming - we've got about 10 to 20 years to do something radical - which we probably won't do, so in 30-60 years our economic growth will be measured in negative numbers instead of positive ones. If crops no longer can grow because it's too warm or not enough rain has fallen or whatever, we're hosed long before it becomes "uncomfortable" for EVERYONE to agree it's happening.

3. The boondoggle of "alternative" fuels will be squared away.

The biodiesel, ethanol etc are bogus and similar pipe-dreams cannot possibly supply even 5% of US energy demand so let's stop talking about them as if they were realistic. One would have to plant nothing but corn across every arible acre of US farmland to ethanol/biofuel viable but then there's the question of what to eat.

Hydrogen might someday pan out if they can find a cheap catalyst and then develop the production and distribution channels around geothermal venting systems - like Iceland is doing.

Practically it will probably break down like this. We'll probably go mostly nuclear in the short term in the major metro areas and then use wind or solar to keep outlying areas /states going.

At some point oil's cost vs. wind or solar will become even and then - why import oil and gas when you have large windy plain or open desert like in Kansas or Arizona, and also have relatively low energy intensity/usage.

Eventually I suspect if the Middle East continues to spiral into a religious/political fuzzball, or there is another significant terrorist event some folks will be motivated to get Fusion / ITER funded and online faster than anticipated.

Basically the Middle-East is on borrowed time of about 10-15 years no matter what.

If the worst occurs, you can be sure that the US will vigorously and probably secretly fund another ITER in cooperation with other energy dependent states as well as other energy production programs despite whatever our dear friends in the Middle-East say afterwards.

At this point, from their perspective the Middle East/Israel/Saudi Arabia etc, is seriously screwed and need to get their stuff in gear because they'll be unable to command any attention from the rest of the world or they'll alternatively become even more dangerous to the rest of us when the money stops and we put the first few fusion reactors online, they could resort to state sanctioned "terrorism" until someone forks over "assistance".

Answer 2

Well, some scientists have found what might be a bacteria that reproduces that might be able to be used as fuel for cars (the bacteria, unfortunately, is only found a couple miles under the Earth's surface in a gold mine in Africa)...the bacteria will reproduce and the global fuel supply will never run out. I forget lots of information on the topic because I lost the magazine article in which I read it.