When will poker's popularity and growth peak?

Answer 1

never. it's popular because of the money, and the more popular it is, the more money gets put in, etc. etc.

part of our whole fascination with all pro sports is the money involved. if the athletes weren't making millions, we wouldn't care (see pro dodgeball, soccer, backgammon, chess, etc. etc. etc.)

[edit] to add to what Sanjay said, below, how often do basketball, football, or baseball fans play these sports? Spectator participation is not important to a game's popularity.

However, the key difference between poker and all other major sports is that revenue is _not_ driven by the spectators or advertisers, but by the actual participants. In many cases, the cost of the prizes is equal to or exceeds the production cost of the tournament. In most cases, participants themselves pay for the tournament and prizes as part of the fees ($10+$1, for example.) So, television stations and tournament organizers do not have to invest as much as in other sports, thus having larger advertising campaigns and reaching more people.

Therefore, in essense, poker has more resources to reach more people, thus driving its popularity.

So: Popular -> Bigger Money -> More popular -> Bigger money, etc. etc. etc.

To be a devil's advocate, if I were to imagine what would happen that would make poker's popularity decrease, it would be a pro strike. If the pro poker players formed a union and regulated how often their images could be used and for what, this would definitely create a negative image about the sport. Let's say, for example a pro who makes it to the final table does not allow himself to be shown on a particular network. This would force the network to not show the final table. If the networks refused to comply, the pros would strike. This same effect almost caused the collapse of MLB in the 80's and 90's.

Answer 2

Honestly, unless the current regulations get changed it will probably be sooner than you think.

Much of the growth has been driven by amateurs who drop $100 on a site and play. This is what encourages people to play more and more: a game being available 24 hours a day. TV programs help in terms of overall popularity, but the true growth in people playing the game developed over the internet. This was largely fueled by the ease of use: you can use your credit card to deposit and start playing in less than 60 seconds. For those that wanted to move more money, Neteller was a reliable option.

These days, your credit card gets rejected most of the time, the biggest site pulled out, and there are questions about whether sites like PokerStars (that still service the US) will allow US players to qualify for the WSOP on their site. These days I have to sit down and purchase virtual gift cards to move money on to a site, and I have to wait weeks for a check to arrive if I want to cash out.

As things are right now, it may keep growing. However, if crackdowns are more intense then we could end up in a different situation. It will remain popular, but people will play less frequently.

Answer 3

I'm sure it will eventually peak - but it definately is still going strong. Televised poker events are more popular than ever. A couple years ago all we had was WPT, WSOP, and the USPC... now we have all those, plus PPT, EPT, WSOP satelites, poker after dark, high stakes poker, heartland poker tour, poker dome challenge, aussie millions... and many more. Poker rooms like PokerStars are still having 10,000+ players in cash games alone at peak hours.

I'm sure that eventually poker's popularity will fizzle out - but it seems to be going strong for now. I give it at least another 4 or 5 years before it begins to leave popular culture.