Is a 90% certainty of the consensus (51%) of scientists good enough to change public policy?

Question

After all, 95% of Congress people in 1999 were 99% certian that Iraq had WMD's.

Shouldn't we wait until we're more certian that man has any effect on the climate before we force people to pay more for ideas that won't work?

Naturally New Orleans, Flordia, and the Gulf Reagon never, ever recieved a hurricane anytime in the past. It wasn't untill man made global warming happened in the last 15 years that hurricanes were discovered to hit the US mainland....

What morons.....

Answer 1

Thank God, there are thinking people out there.

Answer 2

Because the danger of being "wrong" in both iraq and global warming was too great, even if we were not 100% sure.

If Iraq had wmds and devloped nukes, potentially millions of Americans could have been killed. We made sure that that would never happen at the cost of a few thousand American lives. A few nukes in US cities could have killed 3 million. Can you say for sure that Saddam had less than 1 chance in 1000 of ever developing and using Nukes? Even if Bush was going to be wrong on this reason 999 times out of a thousand he would have been saving US lives on average.

Even if the chance of a worst case global warming is slight, the cost to the economy and environment would be so great that it is worth dealing with.

All of the potential damage from global warming could cost many trillions of dollars worldwide in the realistic worst case predictions. Even if the chance is only 1 in 10 for it to be that "bad" the solution may cost less than the damage from the worst case divided by 10.

Answer 3

No. Scientists typically work in the 95% confidence interval. Less than that means the work may be a little sketchy.

The last IPCC report used a 95% confidence, The 2007 dropped to a 90% confidence.

Consnesus should NEVER be the goal of science, accuracy and precision should be the goals.

Answer 4

Maybe fear is a motivator for denial because if it doesn't exist it can't hurt me, tell that to the people in new Orleans or how about the people in Florida. The earth releases its atmospheres stored energy in the form of storms. You cannot justify and deny problems away. Besides if I remember right neurotoxic gas is a WMD and didn't Saddam have a colleague that was honored with the name of chemical Ali.

Answer 5

Tell whatever you like to people in New Orleans Global Warming has nothing to do with stronger or weaker hurricanes.

Answer 6

one man worth his salt can change the thinking and life of the thinkining humanity