How will the threat of terrorism affect commercial aviation over the next 20 years?

Answer 1

The volatile nature of commercial aviation not to mention world terrorism makes it impossible to speculate on the effects that far away. Continuing upgrades in technology and intelligence may keep pressure on ticket prices through security taxes and airline resources.

Answer 2

I think the biggest threat to commercial aviation is the pollution problem.
When 'our leaders' realise that it is the aircraft that are putting the pollution directly into the areas that do most harm, 30,000 feet up, will they stop penalising the car driver and start penalising the air traveller.
By the time car pollution has reached the problem areas, it has all but dissipated. Been diluted if you will.
It is the aircraft that are 'injecting' the pollutants directly into the ozone layer, that has more than likely caused the troubles that we now have.
Or even more likely, that we are in a transient period of 'ice age'.
ie: We are towards the end of the last ice age. That's why the ice caps are melting.
Sorry for digressing on your question.

Answer 3

If it's anything like the past few years things will really get tougher for us, the 99 .9999 % who use commercial aviation to get around for work or for other legitimate reasons, because it has, like the internet and the mobile phone become an essential part of our life.

Back in 1977, I had a stopover of 6 hours in Singapore. Customs gave me a visa, ( a short one, I don't even recall how long it was,) to go into town, buy a feed and have a look around and then back again for the connecting flight. Now, that is impossible because a terrorist did just this except he didn't return to the airport. His luggage that he left behind was a bomb waiting to go off. It may be interesting to note that the stop over was a few weeks before the Lockebie incident.

These days, sharp objects like sissors and nail files are confiscated not just from your carry on luggage but also from the checked-in luggage. How on earth you are going to access that nail file and storm the cockpit, I will never know. But this reflects the growing concern over security nowadays.

Queues in airport terminals are getting longer. It takes longer than ever before to get through customs despite your fatigue, flight lag and the desire to be back with your family.

Now, we know this is all for our protection and we appreciate it. But the comfort-level of most of the 99.9999%, especially those poor sods in economy class, has really taken a dip and I see it dipping lower. The war on terror is just cutting off the heads of the weeds and not addressing the causes that cultivate it. In the meantime, me, you and the other 99.9999 % waiting for customs clearance are also the victims.

Answer 4

Flying will become more risky. Commercial airlines will adopt most of the anti-missile technology currently used by military aircraft.
With the current advent of 'governments' supporting terrorists, the technological equipment, especially missiles, available to terrorist will become more sophisticated and plentiful. Commercial aircraft having to operate from known areas will be perfect targets.

Answer 5

it will affect it for a lot longer than 20 years, but the industry is good at adapting to changes

it's one of the reasons why the Open Skies agreement with Europe is stumbling (the main reason being ownership rights - think of virgin usa)

People who can afford to fly privately in bizjets do so to avoid lengthy security procedures (amongst other reasons too)

Answer 6

It will make flying more expensive as airlines struggle to keep up with the necessary technologies to tackle the treat.

i.e. ground launched missile sensors

Answer 7

it will probably remain the same as now