What are the key factors likely to affect the development of commercial airline industry over the next 20 year

Question

I need your help guys. Bullet points would be great

Answer 1

It's not going to be the 'gloom and doom' scenario you see around here.

Security will eventually become more even; some countries are better at it than others; I think eventually some international organization (ICAO, etc.) will issue standards that most nations will adopt.

The airlines will continue to have to lower their prices as low as possible, as the average traveler will do anything to save a buck/euro/yen, etc., and so 'cattle-car' travelling conditions will predominate.

The narrowbody airliners (737, 757, A320, etc.) will gradually fade away as the regional jets move into their market segment.

The A380 will be an enormous boondoggle for Airbus, but with lots of government support they'll survive.

Embraer will gradually move upwards into larger airplanes, and begin to challenge Boeing and Airbus in the low end of their markets.

The very light jets just now coming into the marketplace will revolutionize the air charter and air taxi industry, and will make private jet ownership affordable for the merely wealthy, and not just the super-rich (through fractional ownership). Eventually the middle and lower classes will be relegated to the commercial airlines, with the rich breezing through security to their private flights.

Long term--Boeing's strategy of outsourcing major sub-assemblies will come back to haunt them, as their 'partners' end up building whole airplanes themselves.

Global warming issues will not have as much impact as what people believe--not that they're not going to occur. The issue is that there is so much money tied up in flying airliners that the companies that fly the passengers, the companies that make the airplanes, and the companies that sell the fuel to the airlines can all afford to buy off politicians worldwide, and thereby get exemptions from regulations they don't want to comply with. Welcome to the real world.

Answer 2

Technological advances in Engine efficiency, perhaps even the use of alternative fuels.

Capacity and regulation of the Airliners themselves, i.e no more flights being allowed to fly with less than a certain passenger capacity.

Tighter security issues.

Environmental impact of Airports in Urban Areas with the increased traffic.

Cost to the end consumer. In the early days of travel, flights were the preserve of the rich, now everyone can afford to fly anywhere in the world, but recent tax increases are begninning to hit the Airline industry, and the consumer.

Technology itself being able to take more of the flying away from the Pilot, perhaps a reduction in Top level Crew and Cabin staff.

China developing and producing Airliners cheaper than anywhere else. They already do it in Heavy Industry.

Answer 3

I think the problem with becoming a pilot, or any other highly skilled person in this world today is outsourcing. Within the next 20 years, companies will be able to get permission to hire contract crews from other countries. They will be trained to the company procedures and will fly the aircraft in place of the pilots you see today. In short, the guy that helped you with your Gateway Computer from Mumbai, may be flying your plane in 20 years. Who do we have to thank for this you may ask? Both NAFTA (Bush Sr, Clinton, Bush Jr.) and the Unions who have also been guilty for trying too hard to get people paid so well, they are forcing themselves out of work. I know this probably does not answer your question, however I feel that we are too technologically young to have aircraft pilot themselves and be approved to haul self loading cargo (passengers).

Answer 4

- Fuel- increasing cost and increasing scarcity
- Taxes being added to Aviation Fuel by Governments in reaction to Green Issues
- Air Travel becoming increasingly unacceptable as we all become more green aware
- Budget airlines may still be cheaper than 'standard' airlines but truly cheap air travel will end
- Security issues will become ever more onerous - evrty country will come into line with the UK who currently operate the world's strictest Air Cargo Security regime
- Passenger planes carry 80% plus of all air cargo - will that remain accepytable,. If governments stop then some routes will cease for passengers (freight makes them profitable)
- Eco-terrorism (the green issue) as well as political terrorism will come up
- Infrastructures will fail unless beefed up as well (Heathrow Airport is OK, try getting there)
- NIMBY issue for new airports and routes - the environment again
- Leftfield one - Virtual Reality - if that develops enough and became indistinguishable from reality - why bother to travel at all?
- Air Cargo will become more expensive (prohibitively?) due to carbon footprint charging - no more out of season strawberries from Thailand at Tescos and maybe airlines going to the wall.
- Consolidation in the industry - you'll get massive carriers and cargo agents and small airlines will find it much tougher.
- The service will become more unwieldy as it consolidates. Big may be better for profits but it sure ain't for service (bitter experience shows that)

Answer 5

Green issues I would expect. The avaition industry in general is under close scrutiny regarding the high ammout of emmissions it produces on a global scale.

Answer 6

Engine efficiency and ground support efficiency. Petroleum isn't getting any cheaper, and although giant planes can be built, the problem is finding runways that can support them, and airports that can service them. This is why the new, giant plane from the AirBus is having problems being sold. Its size requires tremendous expenditures in runway, taxiway and passenger/frieght handling facilities in any airport it visits. Bigger isn't always better.

Answer 7

increased security making airline travel less and less pleasant

Increasing fuel prices making airline travel much more expensive


The end of "budget" airline travel

People being forced to take less and less luggage.

Global warming.

Answer 8

People are the key factors.

Answer 9

20 years theyll be extinct