Whats the best and most effective way to win at the horse track?

Question

I am a pretty good handicapper, albiet only 26 and only doing it for a few years however, i usually win a little bit or break even when i go to Turfway Park near Cincinnati. I am wondering, to other horsebettors and handicappers, what is the best way to bet? I like the pick 3 and pick 4s but often a longshot pops its head in there and ruins it. Should i stick to exactas and trifectas? Or is the best way to do just win bets??

Answer 1

I have been studying racing results for about two years continuously now for all tracks in the US and the majors in Canada, Thorobred, Quarterhorse and Harness alike, putting the various results thru math formulas, (spread between Morning line favorite and highest odds longshot, field size, length, purse amount, Morning Line Odds Average, number of horses with odds above it both in the ML and at post time, clusters of longshots, clusters of overlays, scratches, post position, consistency of results due to track handle, etc.) and have come to the following conclusions:

#1: you should bet ONE of underlay favorites one thru three to Show in higher purses, but if not betting THE favorite bet the one that underlays the most but only if it underlays below the first favorite; or in some cases bet one with odds in the middle that underlays the most. Those with underlays of at least 100% are more effective. (To measure this change use the probability rather than the odds, so that a change from 4 to 1 to 2 to 1 is not a 100% change, but rather is a change from 1/5 to 1/3, or 67%; a 100% change would be 7 to 1 going down to 3 to 1, or 1/8 going to1/4). Any motion of more than 400% is suspect as it shows too much enthusiasm by the public and is probably misguided.

#2: concentrate on overlay longshots to Win and/or Place in Maiden (NW2, etc.), and lower purse races. Each track will have its own purse range so what's a "dog" purse at $10,000 in a high dollar track may be the second from the top purse at a smaller one. Overlays are actually ignored horses that in such races actually have a better chance to win than favorites. Case in point - Tuesday February 6, 2007 not ANY post time favorites won any races at Freehold harness (although in the 4th it was a dead heat and in the 9th a three-way tie for favorite).

#3: In the Trifecta, box the four lowest favorites in the Morning Line in stakes or top purse races generally, whereas for Maiden races it's a few overlay longshots plus the two lowest favorites, usually underlays but a mild overlay is ok as long as it keeps its relative position as the favorite or number two favorite, keeping in mind that frequently in Maiden races the first favorite has been over-rated and does not finish in the money. Here I have been necessarily brief because the full explanation of what I select to box Trifectas would take about 4 pages, including such things as whether the public bets the most money on a horse not only to Win, but also to Place and Show (indicating a non-stalker). And of course Trifectas in a field of 5 (in venues where that's permitted) are much easier to win than in a field of 12, but then again longshots tend to win more in fields of 8 thru 12 - below and above that field size range favorites tend to win more, so some of this would be your own personal risk tolerance.

I stay away from Exactas because it's too hard to narrow the choices down, and by being inclusive you usually get back less than the wager - I never wheel because I do not handicap - I don't care who wins, just that I get the top two - but if I did bet Exactas I'd always box three horses and veto for an odds-on situation as a three-horse box usually shows a slight loss if the favorite is odds-on. I also stay away from pick 6 and daily doubles because I don't really care who wins just as long as I can make money over time. And the greatest way not to lose is to know when not to bet. I also recommend never betting a horse that is above 50 to 1 (in my system that bet would be made about once every week for the entire group of races available to me online).


#4: To reduce risk it is better to bet online in small amounts multiple times per day, so I do not handicap as I do not have time to read reports. Instead I refer to the excellent groundbreaking book of Ziemba and Hausch called "Beat the Racetrack" that shows that the public is by and large a great determiner of who will win by their betting patterns -so it is safer to bet like a momentum investor would buy stocks, just buying after seeing the stock going up and not caring why.

I have noticed a tendency that if the horse whose odds have dropped the highest percentage is next to the one whose odds have gone up the most, the highly-bet horse will most likely not win but finish lower or out of the money altogether - because the "bad" horse next to it may block its way or even play tag along and then win if the "good" horse tires - unless the favorite or highly-bet horse becomes odds-on (lower than even money) which is the public's endorsement that it is really good. But I NEVER bet on Odds-on horses in Maiden races because if they've never won, why are they so highly touted now? Or why is there such a large spread between the odds-on favorite underlay and the one that overlays to 99 to 1 if NONE of them has ever won? In such non-maiden races, if the odds-on has underlayed a lot, it is safer to bet those with flat odds changes to place; if the odds-on has just gone down slightly, bet horses that have less than an extreme amount of overlay to place. I have determined that by measuring the average odds movement for all the horses in a given race those with this "average" odds movement tend to do better than those that do not move or move too much, and the average amount of movement in the three top finishers tends to mirror the average amount of odds change for all the horses in the race in question. Maiden races tend to have more odds movement, while stakes have less. If a favorite is an extreme underlay and finishes in the money chances are that the others in the money will have flatter odds changes as well as high odds.

I have also recently noticed a bias for races consisting only of Fillies and Mares in that they tend to have more longshot winners in Thorobred races of higher purses, while in "girl" Harness races more favorites tend to win, perhaps because the necessary personality traits in harness racing is a steady push and then a burst; but the data are not really extensive enough to say that it is a fact rather than a statistical aberration. Occasionally I will see longshot Place "streaks" in Quarterhorse races, but this is an illusion - if you categorize by class, length and field size you will be able to see that the apparent "streak" has nothing to do with random chance at all. In Arabian races (usually conducted at quarterhorse venues) longshots tend to win more because the handicapping is more sketchy, plus the animals are high-spirited and unpredictable.

I know my approach is different than most but I see racing primarily as a way to both capture the correctness of the wisdom of the public as occurs in most cases while still being able to determine when they're wrong and bet against that as well. Just like trading Stocks or Advertising I view racing thru the eyes of human psychology. In fact I have determined that there is a predictable amount of overlaying (or multiples of that) that usually results in a horse being in the money in Maiden races - but only if its odds start from a particular place relative to the field size and to certain mathematical averages - as if the public is consistently mis-guided by the handicapping in Maiden races and acts more or less the same way in the percentage amounts it withdraws its bets (the cause of an overlay) for horses perceived to have no chance, when in fact the favorites are the ones that truly have no chance and have been over-rated. Why this would reproduce the same predictable mathematical ranges of overlaying is due to the millions of people continuing to act consistently when shunning horses that have gotten a bad mark by the handicapper.

Answer 2

I think the most money is in the exotics. The key is to spread on the races you don't feel solid about. If there is a race in the pick 4 or pick 3 you don't feel sure about, cover a bunch of numbers. In the tri and the super, I like to take all of the horses I can afford to in third and fourth, because you never know what will happen in those positions. I think you should take the w/p/s that you feel good about as a foundation, and take chances on the exotics. Otherwise if you have two of the three races figured out and you only played the pick 3 you feel dumb. Play both, when you do hit the pick 3 it will cover the times you don't.

Answer 3

I think win and places bets and exactas are the way to go. These wagers usually have the lowest take out(percentage that goes to the track). Find a horse to key and go from there. You can throw some long shots in on the exactas and make a nice profit even on a semi favorite.

Answer 4

Win ( 3 ) Fort Larned Plc ( 4 ) Discreet Dancer Shw ( 2 ) Fort Loudon Alt: ( 6 ) Swagger Jack goes to 3rd place if any is Declared. "May the Horse be with You" Odds 1. Decaf Again / 50/1 2. Fort Loudon / 5/1 3. Fort Larned / 3/5 4. Discreet Dancer / 3/1 5. Gourmet Dinner / 15/1 6. Swagger Jack / 6/1

Answer 5

Truthfully I don't go to the races much even though I live in Lexington. I'm not a big horse racing fan ( Love Dressage and Show Jumping) I live near a person who is a big better. He is a million aire and goes to the races a lot. So we only go when he goes because he knows so much about the horses racing. Sorry if I didn't help but I hope I did!!!

Answer 6

Pick a smaller park, keep track of all the races and which jockeys have won each race. For the final race pick the one jockey who hasn't won yet that day, chances are you will win.

My sister use to work at a race track she said all the jockeys are friends and they look out for each other, she 's right I won a lot of races based on her theory.

Answer 7

Don't bet