EARTH TO VENUS in 100 years?

Question

Well for those of you sitting back thanking the world for finally waking up to the problem of global warming, cosey and warm in that reassurring glow of global cooperation on the matter - have you heard of something called Global Dimming?

This is a large cooling effect, casued by man made air pollution, that has been totally (thats right) totally omitted from the current climate modelling, and has been masking the true impact of carbom emissions on gloabl temperature. The stuff recently reported regards UN classification of glabal warming as being "very likely" to be due to human activity; Al Gores "An Inconvenient Truth"; international and national climate change targets for the next century - all of these do NOT include this effect.

If you plug it in temperatures have risen by 1.6 - 2 degrees making the 2 degree temp rise target by the end of this century already redundant.

It's is believed that the greenland ice sheet will start to melt irreversibly at this temperature. Once that starts it contributes to glabl heating and things get hotter.

The predicted heating will dry out the Amazon basin resulting in the loss of that rain forest releasing billionso f tonnes more CO2 and further heating.

Finally as temperature rise continues methane hydrates will destablise in the worlds oceans resulting in 10,000 billion tonnes of methane (a green house gas some 8 times more powerful than CO2) being released into the atmosphere. (Thats equivalent to about 300 yeasr worth of CO2 emmisssions at our current level).

Temperature rise would be utterly unstoppbale and large 50+ degrees globally.

All plant species would die - more carbon.

Without plants - no O2 - we die, along with everything else on land.

The oceans absorb the CO2 and become acidic, killing the oceans. We'd be back to bacterial mats and extremophiles.

Plugging this new effect into the global modelling indicates that we'll hit the 2 degree mark in no more than 25 years.

I'm not being alarmist here - but this looks like an end of the world scenario with a hell of a lot of science backing it up.

I think we've been caught with our pants down on this - big time and I really cannot see global cooperation being mustered nor green technology developed in time to arrest this crisis before it goes beyond our control.

Of course the worry now is, is there anything else like Global Dimming which has been missed - what else could we have overlooked that comes out and bites us in the thermometer??!!

We need a complete revision of current human practice and political leadership and consequent action needs to be directed at addressing this problem from every angle available.

If you have something disparaging to say about this - don't bother. If you don't believe in Global warming go elsewhere - for the rest, responses welcomed.

Answer 1

I read your question and subsequent information with great interest. I have just despatched an email to my local government representative stating my opposition to a new coal mine development. My arguments were all about green house gases and global warming to which coal mining contributes greatly. I told this politician that as my elected representative it was his and his government's responsibility to have the guts to enact change. I called for the end of coal mining and the use of technology to wipe out the environment polluting gases while this change was being enacted.
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So my contribution to your question is to badger and bully your local government representatives. I was recently told by a Greenpeace worker that politicians became seriously worried when they received phone calls, emails and letters criticising them on various environmental issues. I took it too mean that it is up to us to wake up these sleeping representatives. After all if they really want to be re-elected (and what politician doesn't?) they will pay serious attention. The more people who do this then the more quickly our elected representatives will start seriously searching for solutions.
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Well anyway...it is a start. I say this as someone who has just sent her very first email to her elected representative. So if I can do it....absolutely anyone can. You don't have to use big words or feel the need to write an essay. Just say what you feel. Enough of us do it and the message will come through loud and clear.
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I hope this is of some interest and use to you.

Answer 2

If you plug in global dimming and the cooling effects that are left out of the equation you find that the cause of the alleged global warming is more likely from solar gain than CO2. Does anybody else notice the coincidence of other panets also warming up recently? You also find that the greater the affect of dimming the cooler the globe becomes. It was purposely left out, along with a number of other factors because they, when combined, make man caused global warming far less likely than the ICC is reporting.
For the record:

The Earth has actually only warmed less than a degree in the last 100 years when you look at all the factors. And it cannot be attributed to huma causedf effects.

DUE TO DISTANCE FROM THE SUN AND OTHER RELATED FACTORS IT IS NOT PHYSICALLY POSSIBLE FOR THE EARTH TO HEAT UP TO VENUS LIKE CONDITIONS. THAT ENTIRE SCENERIO IS A LIE!!!!

Look at the climate models sometime. Anybody who understands computer modelling will tell you why the models are utterly unreliable. The whole global warming scare is kind of like Chicken Little running around flapping his wings and claiming the sky is falling. And a bunch of silly people listen to it and panic.

Answer 3

The problem with promoting extreme and unlikely possibilities like this is that it hurts getting people to do the right things for the most likely scenarios, that are supported by the overwhelming majority of scientists.

The most likely scenarios are not a the end of man or a Hollywood style disaster movie. They're just terrible.

Coastal cities will start to flood, first in storms then all the time. Changing temperature and precipitation patterns will severely damage agriculture. Rich countries can cope, but it will cost them huge sums of money and their standard of living will go down. In poor countries many (not all) people will die of starvation.

It's not spectacular, it's not a "look at this" kind of thing. But it's the scenario we have to worry about and need to plan for and work against. It would only be the worst disaster in human history.

Promoting this kind of scenario is just too similar to the unscientific views of the "it's all natural" global warming deniers. People who want to work against global warming need to stick together. It's why scientists at the IPCC changed the wording that global warming is caused by man from "virtually certain" to "very likely". They knew the words were less important than coming up with a unanimous report.

Answer 4

Yes, I've often heard that analogy about Venus and Earth and it suits them very well. Our two planets are physically very similar, which is why it is interesting how they have ended up so very different. Both planets are a mixture of rock and iron. They almost identical in size (Earth is slightly bigger) and in composition, but that is where the similarities end. I think it's inevitable that Earth will end up resembling Venus. In a billion years or so, the Sun will so much brighter that it will begin to evaporate our oceans. This will trigger a runaway greenhouse effect, the same thing that has already happened on Venus.

Answer 5

Government scaremongering imo scare peole into paying more taxes and you fall for it hook line and sinker.

The earth has been going through warming up/cooling cycles for millions of years and will continue to do so until the Earth is swallowed up by the sun in a few billion years.

The worlds insect population emits more c02 than all of mans activities put together in a year, maybe we should wipe those critters out first

Answer 6

Somebody's been lying to you.

There has never been a peer-reviewed global climate model that did not include the effects of aerosols (i.e., global dimming). The IPCC spent 60 pages on that topic alone. Here's a link.

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/pdf/TAR-05.PDF

What I'd like to know is: who told you that lie? And who paid them to tell it?

Answer 7

Which scientist said that, the one that invented thalidomide, the one that let the space shuttles blow up, the one that insisted on asbestos, the one that said genetic engineering was OK, the one that said not to use wooden chopping boards only to have if found out 20 years later plastic was the culprit? Dont believe everything that has PhD written somewhere on it, scientists make more mistakes than the rest of the world put together.

Answer 8

it's highly a possibility.
We have only 1 another example in our solar system Neptune: in the last 40 years neptune increased the temperature by 1.5 deegrees and the winds from 200 mph went to 1600 mph.

So we weill have an atmosphere dense as Venus, no light will reach the surface anymore, and all life on the planet will be gone.

Answer 9

no in 9 years

Answer 10

The Earth would never reach the same temperature as Venus, but it could happily reach around 300C in 100 years or so.