What is the next development in "long range" commercial aircraft?

Question

I wonder, is a scram/ram jet airliner, that travels above the normal means of todays airliners, something of fiction, or are we close to this? It would seem if we could have such an aircraft able to take of and land at normal speeds, rapidily ascend to altitudes above the "sonic boom" noise envelope,it would be viable,cutting international times by 1/2? any thoughts? would love to hear from actual commerical aircraft drivers regarding training, problems etc. thanks

Answer 1

On paper, speed always appears attractive. Who wouldn't want to be able to fly from Los Angeles to Tokyo in 6 hours instead of 12?

But the lesson from the 1970s, with Concorde, is that no matter how much you'd like to halve the travel time, the average traveller won't pay for it. And while airlines make their money on the full-fare and first/business class travellers, they avoid losing it with the "discretionary" budget traveller. That may sound crazy, but if you want the profitable travellers, you need to have seats to sell them; since aircraft come in fixed sizes, you can rarely arrange to have exactly the right number of seats for the profitable passengers, so you'll generally have to have "spare" seats over and above the number you want. Flying an empty seat costs money, but flying a person in that seat only costs a little more. So selling a ticket at just more than the extra cost of flying a person actually reduces the loss.

The snag is that it always costs more to go faster than it does to plod along -- and the people who will pay the loss-reducing fare for the cheap flight will (typically) not pay the higher fare for the equivalent loss-reducing seat on the fast one. So the market for Concorde collapsed when fuel costs spiralled in the 1970s, and the 747 became the queen of the North Atlantic instead of the Concorde.

Added to that is the new wrinkle of environmental concerns. Faster aircraft will generate more pollution than slower ones (the normal trade-off of speed vs. efficiency). And noise pollution is another concern.

In short, I don't see anything exciting in terms of speed. I suspect the next iteration will combine the absolute efficiency of the Boeing 787 with the scale of the A380, to get an aircraft that burns less fuel and produces less pollution per passenger mile.

(Ericbryce's comments about the number of people on an A380 are off base, by the way, because the difference between a 747-400 and an A380 are negligible when you factor in the number of aisles: the A380 has two decks it's full length, so basically twice as many aisles. Further, the 747-400D in use in Japan regularly carry more than 500 people...)

Another issue with supersonic transport involves the altitudes; obviously, to reduce the noise footprint (and air friction) you need to get very high (again: Concorde flew above 50,000 feet). At those altitudes, losing cabin pressure is a big problem: the normal yellow supplemental oxygen masks don't work (well, they work, but you can't get enough oxygen from them). Concorde handled it by performing an emergency descent, but at some stage (70,000 ft? 90,000 ft?) you just can't get low enough fast enough...

What I do see happening, and what I think the next development will be, is a move towards pilotless aircraft. Maybe not initially totally pilotless, but e.g. long range aircraft with only two crew instead of the current three or four. The aircraft will be flown primarily from the ground, with the on-board pilots as backup and for flying in congested airspace during take-off and landing.

Answer 2

Developement costs and the economics of the end product is everything. The Concorde project proved this. It travelled at twice the speed of sound but to move the one hundred or so passengers took as much fuel as the 747 uses to go the same distance with four times as many people. I think we may see an aircraft with scram/ram jet propusion for military or scientific research use long before we are able to ride on an airliner using those engines. Unless progress can be made to eliminate or greatly reduce sonic booms and the high fuel burn per passenger, commericial aviation will remain a subsonic trip. Given the current financial state of the airline industry the emphasis will be on economy. I've been following commercial aviation for many years and from what I've learned the A380 will not be sucessful. Wide body airlines have been around for over thirty years and the public is used to them and at present is in no mood to ride on a bigger one. Can you imagine the hastle of being one of 555 people waitng to get on one of those monsters? Let's talk about the hastle of getting off the thing after you arrive at your destination. There's all kind of talk about health clubs, bars, and shops on the A380 but we all know that like the upstars lounge on the 747, that space will be filled with seats before long. What are they thinking. Can you imagine a A380 getting up to altitude and 555 people begin to mill around the plane shopping, geting a massage or taking a shower? Get real. We all know those silly little shops and bars will be only for the first class passenger while the vast crowd making the trip econimically viable will be packed like sardines in the rear of the plane. Modern day air travelers are looking for a more direct route to their destinations avoiding the large hubs that large airliners use now. These large hub airports cause huge layovers and lost connections and makes the trip longer that it needs to be.

Answer 3

This is very far ahead in the future. Making a scram jet large enough to be an airliner will take lots of time, and probably won't happen until an alternative fuel source becomes more readily available. The scram jet that they have made and that was sucessful was only a tiny little remote control aircraft.

I think the next developments in long range aircraft will be that stupid looking binded wing aircraft that apparently is "silent". In my opinon, dumbest idea ever. For 2 reasons: 1. it looks so stupid 2. aircraft noises sound awesome and i love them.

In my opinon I like the way air travel is today -- I think flights should take as long as they do now and maybe even longer so airlines can offer accomidations such as hotel rooms onboard an aircraft. (and i think they should make aircraft larger)

Answer 4

Guinness Recognizes NASA's X-43A Scramjet Speed Record

It's official. The new world speed record for a jet-powered aircraft, set by NASA in November, has been officially recognized by Guinness World Records.

The accomplishment, the third and final flight in the experimental X-43A project, demonstrated that an advanced form of air-breathing (jet) engine could power an aircraft at nearly 10 times the speed of sound. Data from the unpiloted, 12-foot-long research vehicle show that its revolutionary "scamjet" engine worked successfully at Mach 9.6 or nearly 7,000 mph, as it flew at about 109,000 feet over the Pacific Ocean west of California.

Answer 5

I like jetliners as they are now. The improvements I see becoming a reality are building more efficient, eco-friendly engines and better passenger comfort onboard...as well as better materials used to build aircraft, both commercial and military. As well as the 787 Dreamliner and 747-8 from Boieng and the A350 from Airbus.

BTW Malcolm, there are already long-range jetliners with only two people in the cockpit...the Boeing 747-400 series and the Boeing 777 series are two examples of this.

Answer 6

I think that the pressure will be on airline manufacturers to get even greener. New engine technologies in particular will be important. Through these the ability to carry a greater passenger payload (A380 for example) for less fuel and alternative fuel sources will be paramount. A second change will be in how planes fly. A couple of speculative partnerships appear to have died a death in the challenge of sub space flight. If it can be achieved the journey time to the furthest destinations will be dramatically reduced. UK to Australia in seven hours for example rather than 21.5 as now! To make this happen new engines and body shapes will appear. You never know Star Trek type "beam me up" might happen one day!

Answer 7

The next advance to be seen will be making the current engines a lot more efficient. Although today's high bypass fan engines are much better than the engines of the past, there is still room for improvement. What is holding us back is the lack of materials that can withstand the high heat and centrifugal forces inside the engine... With the fuel crisis like it is, there is a bigger demand for efficiency than time savings through super-fast planes.